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It does address the base rate, though not in a fully satisfactory way. You're correct to point out the number of Teslas on the road vs. other vehicles, as is th
by btrettel 2y ago
It does address the base rate, though not in a fully satisfactory way. You're correct to point out the number of Teslas on the road vs. other vehicles, as is this person who mentions driving hours: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43601681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43601681
The replies to my comment seem to me to be addressing the question of what the appropriate reference class is, not the base rate fallacy.
- BeetleB 2y ago> The replies to my comment seem to me to be addressing the question of what the appropriate reference class is, not the base rate fallacy. The base rate fallacy is fundamentally about the relative rates in the population, and I don't see that data in the article.
- btrettel 2y agoAgain, I think it comes down to what the "population" (reference class) is. Implicit in what I quoted was the population being companies. I personally would criticize it on that point, not that they are making the base rate fallacy because I think from their perspective they are not. Seems like semantics to me, I don't think we actually disagree on much.