4 ms·

This was purely an effort to improve margins on the cars that they tried to sell with other types of rationale. From the way I've seen him operate his companies

This was purely an effort to improve margins on the cars that they tried to sell with other types of rationale. From the way I've seen him operate his companies, treat his employees, and now work with the government, he has a high tolerance for risk paired with a very low tolerance for perceived inefficiencies plus too little patience to fully understand the problem. He really embodies the ethos of "move fast and break things". So let's fire 80% of the staff, see what falls down, and rehire where we made "mistakes". I really think he has an alarmingly high threshold for the number of lives we can lose if it accelerates the pace of progress.

Ygg2 2y ago
To quote Black Adder: Some of you may die, but some of us will live!
- throw0101d 2y ago
  "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make." — Lord Farquaad, Shrek, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/characters/nm0001475?item=qt0398103 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/characters/nm0001475?it...
  - smallmancontrov 2y ago
    The irony is almost palpable, invoking this quote against a system that is driving 600 million miles a quarter without the 8 deaths a human would cause over the same distance.
    - daveguy 2y ago
      [citation needed] Tesla releases all self driving statistics including time since disengagement of self-driving before accident, right?
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - smallmancontrov 2y ago
        https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-order-crash-reporting#:~:text=ADS%3A%20Entities%20named%20in%20the,in%20property%20damage%20or%20injury. https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde... The numbers include all incidents where self-driving was active within 30 seconds of the crash, because of course they do. The meme that Tesla is allowed to simply bypass reporting on a technicality would be absurd if it weren't so voraciously spread by post-truth luddites. Look, if you want to dunk on Elon, I get it, but he does so many real shitty things that I would ask you to focus on those and not make shit up.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
        triplesec 2y ago
        Guess what: Musk will probably get this rewuirement scrapped by his orange mate. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-transition-recommends-scrapping-car-crash-reporting-requirement-opposed-by-2024-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-...
        smallmancontrov 2y ago
        Finally some good criticism in this godforsaken thread. Yes, Elon wants to do corruption and we should oppose him.
        bumby 2y ago
        If Tesla is Level 2, that link doesn’t support the OPs point about “all” incidents, but rather only those involved in a fatality, hospital treatment, airbag deployment, or towed vehicle. Am I reading that link correctly?
        2y ago
    - toddmorey 2y ago
      The argument here isn't against self-driving. Flying is also 100x safer than driving, but there's still real value in continuing to use the best technology we have available to make flying even safer. "Not a single other automobile manufacturer or ADAS self-driving technology provider reported a single motorcycle fatality in the same time frame."
      - smallmancontrov 2y ago
        Ok, what other ADAS is driving over 2 billion miles a year? As for "best technology available," the galaxy brains in this thread are tossing out numbers assuming that sensor fusion never fails and that correlated failure modes can be neglected, which is wild. I never thought Elon was a genius -- he's a business guy willing to make big bets on interesting tech, nothing more nothing less -- but if the confidently incorrect engineering claims on display in this thread are any indication, maybe you guys should be calling him a genius after all, because this ain't it.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - josephcsible 2y ago
        > there's still real value in continuing to use the best technology we have available to make flying even safer. That's true, but it would obviously be completely unreasonable to stop all flying in the meantime.
        TheBicPen 2y ago
        Grounding entire fleets of aircraft when a safety issue is discovered is completely normal, and that's the way things should happen. Remember when the MCAS issue was discovered on Boeing 737 MAXes after 2 fatal crashes? They were all grounded for a while, and rightfully so.
    - ChoHag 2y ago
      [dead]
    - Mawr 2y ago
      FSD is not able to drive in the same conditions humans are so you're comparing humans driving in challenging conditions to FSD driving in good weather on highways.
rayiner 2y ago
> He really embodies the ethos of "move fast and break things". So let's fire 80% of the staff, see what falls down, and rehire where we made "mistakes". I really think he has an alarmingly high threshold for the number of lives we can lose if it accelerates the pace of progress. Which seems like an antidote to the current culture of "don't build anything anywhere."
kelipso 2y ago
It's pretty funny because lidar used to be many thousands of dollars and now it's down to hundreds and they're still sticking to just regular cameras. Funny in the sense that Teslas are many times more dangerous than lidar enabled cars but anyway.
- labrador 2y ago
  Yes, it's become clear to me that it's only a matter of time before Tesla adds LiDAR and says that was the plan all along. Meanwhile, what better way to test vision-only than by releasing it to the beta testing public? Elon Musk knows people will die but in his ketamine addled brain he's convinced himself that a vision only self-driving Tesla is safer than a human driver so it's ok. People were going to die anyway statistically speaking.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    it's okay. the media will be along to tell us how unsafe ketamine is because they don't like Elon.
- 4d4m 2y ago
  How much is a solid state lidar now?
  - kelipso 2y ago
    Hesai, a Chinese company, sells lidar for cars and they plan to sell at $200 later this year, their current one is around $400. You would need four for a car. I assume the ones for Waymo would be a bit more expensive.
ben_w 2y ago
Yup, it's a product development process known as "Muntzing": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muntzing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muntzing While it was absolutely vital to getting the costs of the original Tesla Roadster and SpaceX launches way down… it can only work when you are able to accept "no, stop" as an answer. Rockets explode when you get them wrong, you can't miss it. Cars crashing more than other models? That's statistics, which can be massaged. Government work? There's always someone complaining no matter what you do, very easy to convince yourself that all criticism is unimportant, no matter how bad it gets. (And it gets much worse than the worst we've actually seen from DOGE and Trump — I don't actually think they'll get to be as bad as the Irish Potato Famine, but that is an example of leaders refusing to accept what was going on).
- tzs 2y ago
  After reading the Wikipedia article on Muntzing it is worth also reading the article about Muntz himself [1]. He may have been the first person to sell TVs by diagonal screen size instead of screen width. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_Muntz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_Muntz
mindslight 2y ago
The sour irony is that "move fast and break things" was formulated in the low-stakes world of web entertainment software, which was able to become so prominent precisely because of the stability of having our more pressing needs being predictably taken care of (for the most part).

Ygg2 2y ago

To quote Black Adder: Some of you may die, but some of us will live!

throw0101d 2y ago
"Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make." — Lord Farquaad, Shrek, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/characters/nm0001475?item=qt0398103 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0126029/characters/nm0001475?it...
- smallmancontrov 2y ago
  The irony is almost palpable, invoking this quote against a system that is driving 600 million miles a quarter without the 8 deaths a human would cause over the same distance.
  - daveguy 2y ago
    [citation needed] Tesla releases all self driving statistics including time since disengagement of self-driving before accident, right?
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - smallmancontrov 2y ago
      https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-order-crash-reporting#:~:text=ADS%3A%20Entities%20named%20in%20the,in%20property%20damage%20or%20injury. https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde... The numbers include all incidents where self-driving was active within 30 seconds of the crash, because of course they do. The meme that Tesla is allowed to simply bypass reporting on a technicality would be absurd if it weren't so voraciously spread by post-truth luddites. Look, if you want to dunk on Elon, I get it, but he does so many real shitty things that I would ask you to focus on those and not make shit up.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - triplesec 2y ago
        Guess what: Musk will probably get this rewuirement scrapped by his orange mate. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-transition-recommends-scrapping-car-crash-reporting-requirement-opposed-by-2024-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-...
        smallmancontrov 2y ago
        Finally some good criticism in this godforsaken thread. Yes, Elon wants to do corruption and we should oppose him.
      - bumby 2y ago
        If Tesla is Level 2, that link doesn’t support the OPs point about “all” incidents, but rather only those involved in a fatality, hospital treatment, airbag deployment, or towed vehicle. Am I reading that link correctly?
        2y ago
  - toddmorey 2y ago
    The argument here isn't against self-driving. Flying is also 100x safer than driving, but there's still real value in continuing to use the best technology we have available to make flying even safer. "Not a single other automobile manufacturer or ADAS self-driving technology provider reported a single motorcycle fatality in the same time frame."
    - smallmancontrov 2y ago
      Ok, what other ADAS is driving over 2 billion miles a year? As for "best technology available," the galaxy brains in this thread are tossing out numbers assuming that sensor fusion never fails and that correlated failure modes can be neglected, which is wild. I never thought Elon was a genius -- he's a business guy willing to make big bets on interesting tech, nothing more nothing less -- but if the confidently incorrect engineering claims on display in this thread are any indication, maybe you guys should be calling him a genius after all, because this ain't it.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - josephcsible 2y ago
      > there's still real value in continuing to use the best technology we have available to make flying even safer. That's true, but it would obviously be completely unreasonable to stop all flying in the meantime.
      - TheBicPen 2y ago
        Grounding entire fleets of aircraft when a safety issue is discovered is completely normal, and that's the way things should happen. Remember when the MCAS issue was discovered on Boeing 737 MAXes after 2 fatal crashes? They were all grounded for a while, and rightfully so.
  - ChoHag 2y ago
    [dead]
  - Mawr 2y ago
    FSD is not able to drive in the same conditions humans are so you're comparing humans driving in challenging conditions to FSD driving in good weather on highways.

rayiner 2y ago

> He really embodies the ethos of "move fast and break things". So let's fire 80% of the staff, see what falls down, and rehire where we made "mistakes". I really think he has an alarmingly high threshold for the number of lives we can lose if it accelerates the pace of progress. Which seems like an antidote to the current culture of "don't build anything anywhere."

kelipso 2y ago

It's pretty funny because lidar used to be many thousands of dollars and now it's down to hundreds and they're still sticking to just regular cameras. Funny in the sense that Teslas are many times more dangerous than lidar enabled cars but anyway.

labrador 2y ago
Yes, it's become clear to me that it's only a matter of time before Tesla adds LiDAR and says that was the plan all along. Meanwhile, what better way to test vision-only than by releasing it to the beta testing public? Elon Musk knows people will die but in his ketamine addled brain he's convinced himself that a vision only self-driving Tesla is safer than a human driver so it's ok. People were going to die anyway statistically speaking.
- fragmede 2y ago
  it's okay. the media will be along to tell us how unsafe ketamine is because they don't like Elon.
4d4m 2y ago
How much is a solid state lidar now?
- kelipso 2y ago
  Hesai, a Chinese company, sells lidar for cars and they plan to sell at $200 later this year, their current one is around $400. You would need four for a car. I assume the ones for Waymo would be a bit more expensive.

ben_w 2y ago

Yup, it's a product development process known as "Muntzing": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muntzing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muntzing While it was absolutely vital to getting the costs of the original Tesla Roadster and SpaceX launches way down… it can only work when you are able to accept "no, stop" as an answer. Rockets explode when you get them wrong, you can't miss it. Cars crashing more than other models? That's statistics, which can be massaged. Government work? There's always someone complaining no matter what you do, very easy to convince yourself that all criticism is unimportant, no matter how bad it gets. (And it gets much worse than the worst we've actually seen from DOGE and Trump — I don't actually think they'll get to be as bad as the Irish Potato Famine, but that is an example of leaders refusing to accept what was going on).

tzs 2y ago
After reading the Wikipedia article on Muntzing it is worth also reading the article about Muntz himself [1]. He may have been the first person to sell TVs by diagonal screen size instead of screen width. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_Muntz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_Muntz

mindslight 2y ago

The sour irony is that "move fast and break things" was formulated in the low-stakes world of web entertainment software, which was able to become so prominent precisely because of the stability of having our more pressing needs being predictably taken care of (for the most part).