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Can you provide some citations / documentation of your claims about "no effect"? As a non-EU / non-UK reader I went searching for more detailed analysis after

by pmags 2y ago

Can you provide some citations / documentation of your claims about "no effect"? As a non-EU / non-UK reader I went searching for more detailed analysis after reading your post. The first detailed analysis I found was the UK Office for Budget Responsibility's Brexit Analysis. [1] The OBR's analysis suggests outcomes like the following (all quoted from that assessment) that seem to suggest some degree of negative economic impact: * The post-Brexit trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU. * Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. [1] https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/ https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexi...

mike_hearn 2y ago
With respect, argh! Lol. That link is neither analysis nor reporting on outcomes. That's more predictions. This is the exact problem I'm talking about! To analyze outcomes you must look at the actual data. There's a report that does so here but you can look up the raw data too if you prefer: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5_Has-Brexit-really-harmed-UK-trade__web-1.pdf https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5... From the summary: "Contrary to initial concerns, Brexit has not had a major detrimental effect on UK–EU trade. ● Trade data doesn’t support the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims that Brexit has caused significant negative impacts on the UK economy. ● Data from 2019 to 2022 indicates that the trade in both goods and services between the UK and EU hasn’t shown a discernible Brexit effect." You can look up more recent numbers but the story hasn't changed. I'd really like to understand the psychology of this phenomenon better. I don't mean this as any personal criticism because it's good that you're asking, but the fact that every time I bring this prediction/reality conflation up I get a rebuttal with more predictions in it is fascinating.
- pmags 2y ago
  Also "with respect": ● The analysis you link to is exactly the same sort of analysis the OBR provides -- i.e. a synthesis of current and past data and updated projections of what that means looking ahead ● The OBR report links to detailed "Economic and fiscal outlook" (EFO) data that includes the actual data the conclusions are based on. I haven't tried to look at the linked data for many of the analyses in the OBR report, but for those I have I find data in the cited EFO documents that seems to backup the statements made. For example, Box 2.6 of the March 2022 EFO report: https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade/ https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brex... ● I gather that the "Institute of Economic Affairs" (IEA) is a long running right wing think-tank/advocacy group -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs ● The director of the IEA was apparently recorded by an undercover reporter telling funders that his organization was in "the Brexit influencing game" [1]. Why should I thus trust that the IEA isn't trying to spin Brexit outcomes to their funders advantage? This applies to the government too of course, but many of those OBR/EFO reports seem to have been prepared when the Conservatives were in power. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-t...
  - mike_hearn 2y ago
    I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point. That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencing game, so what?) I'll do the work for you. Here's a report from Parliament with the relevant data up to 2023. See the graph in section 3.1 https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-... That's trade. For other economics indicators there are many sources. I like TradingEconomics.com
    - pmags 2y ago

by pmags 2y ago

mike_hearn 2y ago

With respect, argh! Lol. That link is neither analysis nor reporting on outcomes. That's more predictions. This is the exact problem I'm talking about! To analyze outcomes you must look at the actual data. There's a report that does so here but you can look up the raw data too if you prefer: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5_Has-Brexit-really-harmed-UK-trade__web-1.pdf https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives_5... From the summary: "Contrary to initial concerns, Brexit has not had a major detrimental effect on UK–EU trade. ● Trade data doesn’t support the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims that Brexit has caused significant negative impacts on the UK economy. ● Data from 2019 to 2022 indicates that the trade in both goods and services between the UK and EU hasn’t shown a discernible Brexit effect." You can look up more recent numbers but the story hasn't changed. I'd really like to understand the psychology of this phenomenon better. I don't mean this as any personal criticism because it's good that you're asking, but the fact that every time I bring this prediction/reality conflation up I get a rebuttal with more predictions in it is fascinating.

pmags 2y ago
Also "with respect": ● The analysis you link to is exactly the same sort of analysis the OBR provides -- i.e. a synthesis of current and past data and updated projections of what that means looking ahead ● The OBR report links to detailed "Economic and fiscal outlook" (EFO) data that includes the actual data the conclusions are based on. I haven't tried to look at the linked data for many of the analyses in the OBR report, but for those I have I find data in the cited EFO documents that seems to backup the statements made. For example, Box 2.6 of the March 2022 EFO report: https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade/ https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brex... ● I gather that the "Institute of Economic Affairs" (IEA) is a long running right wing think-tank/advocacy group -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs ● The director of the IEA was apparently recorded by an undercover reporter telling funders that his organization was in "the Brexit influencing game" [1]. Why should I thus trust that the IEA isn't trying to spin Brexit outcomes to their funders advantage? This applies to the government too of course, but many of those OBR/EFO reports seem to have been prepared when the Conservatives were in power. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-t...
- mike_hearn 2y ago
  I'm only citing the IEA report for the opening commentary on trade data. I know it has other stuff but that's not germane to the point. That the IEA is right wing is neither here nor there, because the statements it makes are factual and true. If for some reason you suspect foul play you can just look up the data yourself instead of digging up irrelevant quotes (the Guardian is also very much in the Brexit influencing game, so what?) I'll do the work for you. Here's a report from Parliament with the relevant data up to 2023. See the graph in section 3.1 https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-... That's trade. For other economics indicators there are many sources. I like TradingEconomics.com
  - pmags 2y ago