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I wish the author had spelled out the subtextual implications for peak oil demand and the energy costs of solar. I will try to give my perspective I suppose. W
by elif 2y ago
I wish the author had spelled out the subtextual implications for peak oil demand and the energy costs of solar. I will try to give my perspective I suppose.
We always thought that once solar achieved cost Parity with gas generation, it would be a cascade effect of rapid solarization due to the cost basis alone, finally shedding the necessity of ethical ideology to promote it.
That happened roughly in 2015 for the US, and nothing substantial changed. Then the costs of solar got cut in half. And now as we breach the mythical $1/watt barrier for utility scale solar installation, we still find ourselves breaking oil production records year after year.
We're so far past the "kerosene moment" and barely seeing exponential growth on solar capacity install. Meanwhile China is adding more than 4x as much.
I think the moral of the kerosene story and solar is that it's hard to flip a paradigm that is currently enabling people to get rich. The only time it seems to change is when a law is passed.
- barney54 2y agoThe author had the story wrong. Kerosene did save the whales—that’s the reason they there around to be so relentlessly hunted in the mid 1900s. The reality is that whales had to be saved twice. The problem with this story about solar is that solar might produce low cost electricity but it’s also low value electricity. It’s much more expensive when you try to replace oil with solar. Those are really apples and oranges technologies.
- elif 2y agoThe figures I used are grid scale installed capacity. It is 3x as expensive to create a new watt of oil electricity production.