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The public wouldn't be supportive because they have no idea what is going on or how politics is connected to any of it. For instance, they don't know who was p

The public wouldn't be supportive because they have no idea what is going on or how politics is connected to any of it. For instance, they don't know who was president in 2020, and everyone thought "the economy" was bad for the last four years at the same time as they answered surveys saying they personally were doing great. See: https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/02/16/will-stancil-repetitive-and-annoying-and-an-influential-player-in-american-politics/ https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/02/16/will-stancil-repeti... https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-median-voter https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-median-voter

no_wizard 2y ago
Statistics can hide or not capture a lot too. That’s the thing we should be talking about and not enough people looked at hard enough. Stancil isn’t wrong per se, he’s quite right in many respects but I don’t know that his work captures the many facets of what is (and was at the time) going on
- astrange 2y ago
  It's not a statistical problem. Economic statistics like that aren't complicated indirect calculations, they literally just call people up and ask how they're doing. I saw one argument that people didn't like high interest rates, but if everyone is saying they are doing fine but have heard other imaginary people are doing badly, that most likely means they've picked up bad vibes from the media.
bodiekane 2y ago
> everyone thought "the economy" was bad for the last four years at the same time as they answered surveys saying they personally were doing great Most of HN would rationally answer a survey that way. High paid tech job, flexible hours, good benefits. But also informed enough to know that many others are struggling and financially insecure. Depending on how the questions were asked, even a person barely getting by might respond that they were personally doing OK (employed, insured, able to pay rent and groceries) while knowing that the economic situation for their friends, family, neighbors was rough and knowing that if they got laid off tomorrow that they'd struggle to find an equivalent replacement job.
- astrange 2y ago
  What you said is always true, and was /less/ true during that period (because unemployment was down), so it doesn't make sense that people answered this way more often. They were just wrong.

no_wizard 2y ago

Statistics can hide or not capture a lot too. That’s the thing we should be talking about and not enough people looked at hard enough. Stancil isn’t wrong per se, he’s quite right in many respects but I don’t know that his work captures the many facets of what is (and was at the time) going on

astrange 2y ago
It's not a statistical problem. Economic statistics like that aren't complicated indirect calculations, they literally just call people up and ask how they're doing. I saw one argument that people didn't like high interest rates, but if everyone is saying they are doing fine but have heard other imaginary people are doing badly, that most likely means they've picked up bad vibes from the media.

bodiekane 2y ago

> everyone thought "the economy" was bad for the last four years at the same time as they answered surveys saying they personally were doing great Most of HN would rationally answer a survey that way. High paid tech job, flexible hours, good benefits. But also informed enough to know that many others are struggling and financially insecure. Depending on how the questions were asked, even a person barely getting by might respond that they were personally doing OK (employed, insured, able to pay rent and groceries) while knowing that the economic situation for their friends, family, neighbors was rough and knowing that if they got laid off tomorrow that they'd struggle to find an equivalent replacement job.

astrange 2y ago
What you said is always true, and was /less/ true during that period (because unemployment was down), so it doesn't make sense that people answered this way more often. They were just wrong.