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It amazes me the contortions some people go through to maintain the belief that this administration is competent. Occam's razor suggests that they just have no

It amazes me the contortions some people go through to maintain the belief that this administration is competent. Occam's razor suggests that they just have no idea what they're doing.

lenerdenator 2y ago
These people all have a shared idea of what they're doing, and since they sit in financially-backed echo chambers, those ideas eventually turn so absurd that they appear to have no idea of what they're doing.
nitwit005 2y ago
I'm fairly convinced it's easier feel like there is some plan, even if a bad or sinister one, than things being in a state of genuine chaos. You occasionally see the people jumping between different ideas as to what the underlying plan is, once events no longer support their initial idea.
- thethimble 2y ago
  The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of the above happens at the expense of equity holders so be it. This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration (namely Bessent who is one of the greatest macro investors of all time). Now there’s many things to criticize in this plan (and lots of risk and unknown possible second order effects), but to describe it as “genuine chaos” or ineptitude is strange.
  - piva00 2y ago
    It's not that crystal clear when the ideas from Stephan Miran to reshape the world order by turning allies into vassals is also part of the plan. There's a plan, it's to reshape the global trade à la Bretton-Woods, and the Plaza Accords. The rest is just noise and plausible deniability for people to gobble up and accept to have been shoved into a New World Order.
  - nitwit005 2y ago
    Let us know what the new plan is when Trump does something that doesn't fit with this.
  - tasuki 2y ago
    > This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration Do you have sources? (I also subscribe to the "genuine chaos" theory, but your comment makes sense)
    - ttyprintk 2y ago
      The first three points: https://www.foxnews.com/person/r/tanvi-ratna https://www.foxnews.com/person/r/tanvi-ratna It’s weird that Congress, the body constitutionally responsible for tariffs and their results, acts like they don’t know about it.
  - gdilla 2y ago
    or they could've... taxed wealth. But the broligarchs who control trump wouldn't be ok with that.
    - AlecSchueler 2y ago
      But could they? Don't they all have unavoidable loopholes to avoid paying?
      - gdilla 2y ago
        we're talking about law makers who can, you know, close loopholes.
        AlecSchueler 2y ago
        My understanding is that the loopholes exist because international trade exists and therefore capital can be juggled through various different states to avoid the tax payments. That is, it's outside the legislative scope of any single set of law makers.
  - thepear5 2y ago
    > When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop I don't know much about markets so genuinely curious as to why the opposite happened in practice (yields went up)?
EasyMark 2y ago
This regime is one Man, tRump, who surrounded himself by yes men. He doesn't have any sort of negative feedback cycle now to keep a cap on how much damage he can do to the economy. Either they owe him something, they are part of the MAGA cult, or they stand to make money by bending the knee (like Bezos and Zuck and Husk).
agubelu 2y ago
Many people share the worldview that those who are higher up in the hierarchy of power are the most capable or deserving of such positions. So when those leaders start acting in a way that is irrational or clearly damaging, there's a pretty strong cognitive dissonance. There are two ways to deal with it: - Assume that, since they're the higher-ups, they must know what they're doing. Therefore there must be some sort of plan that you're not able or supposed to understand. - Reassess the notion that the higher-ups are always the most capable or deserving people, and assume there's a chance for inept people to access positions of power. The first one is the path of least resistance, since it doesn't require challenging a fundamental pillar of your worldview.

It amazes me the contortions some people go through to maintain the belief that this administration is competent. Occam's razor suggests that they just have no idea what they're doing.

lenerdenator 2y ago

These people all have a shared idea of what they're doing, and since they sit in financially-backed echo chambers, those ideas eventually turn so absurd that they appear to have no idea of what they're doing.

nitwit005 2y ago

I'm fairly convinced it's easier feel like there is some plan, even if a bad or sinister one, than things being in a state of genuine chaos. You occasionally see the people jumping between different ideas as to what the underlying plan is, once events no longer support their initial idea.

thethimble 2y ago
The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of the above happens at the expense of equity holders so be it. This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration (namely Bessent who is one of the greatest macro investors of all time). Now there’s many things to criticize in this plan (and lots of risk and unknown possible second order effects), but to describe it as “genuine chaos” or ineptitude is strange.
- piva00 2y ago
  It's not that crystal clear when the ideas from Stephan Miran to reshape the world order by turning allies into vassals is also part of the plan. There's a plan, it's to reshape the global trade à la Bretton-Woods, and the Plaza Accords. The rest is just noise and plausible deniability for people to gobble up and accept to have been shoved into a New World Order.
- nitwit005 2y ago
  Let us know what the new plan is when Trump does something that doesn't fit with this.
- tasuki 2y ago
  > This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration Do you have sources? (I also subscribe to the "genuine chaos" theory, but your comment makes sense)
  - ttyprintk 2y ago
    The first three points: https://www.foxnews.com/person/r/tanvi-ratna https://www.foxnews.com/person/r/tanvi-ratna It’s weird that Congress, the body constitutionally responsible for tariffs and their results, acts like they don’t know about it.
- gdilla 2y ago
  or they could've... taxed wealth. But the broligarchs who control trump wouldn't be ok with that.
  - AlecSchueler 2y ago
    But could they? Don't they all have unavoidable loopholes to avoid paying?
    - gdilla 2y ago
      we're talking about law makers who can, you know, close loopholes.
      - AlecSchueler 2y ago
        My understanding is that the loopholes exist because international trade exists and therefore capital can be juggled through various different states to avoid the tax payments. That is, it's outside the legislative scope of any single set of law makers.
- thepear5 2y ago
  > When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop I don't know much about markets so genuinely curious as to why the opposite happened in practice (yields went up)?

EasyMark 2y ago

This regime is one Man, tRump, who surrounded himself by yes men. He doesn't have any sort of negative feedback cycle now to keep a cap on how much damage he can do to the economy. Either they owe him something, they are part of the MAGA cult, or they stand to make money by bending the knee (like Bezos and Zuck and Husk).

agubelu 2y ago

Many people share the worldview that those who are higher up in the hierarchy of power are the most capable or deserving of such positions. So when those leaders start acting in a way that is irrational or clearly damaging, there's a pretty strong cognitive dissonance. There are two ways to deal with it: - Assume that, since they're the higher-ups, they must know what they're doing. Therefore there must be some sort of plan that you're not able or supposed to understand. - Reassess the notion that the higher-ups are always the most capable or deserving people, and assume there's a chance for inept people to access positions of power. The first one is the path of least resistance, since it doesn't require challenging a fundamental pillar of your worldview.