3 ms·

So where is the bottom? I don’t actually believe there is one, I’m just curious to hear what other people think.

UncleOxidant 2y ago
Sure, there's a bottom, but we're not close to it yet.
WorkerBee28474 2y ago
It could be down another 50%, it could already have passed. Historically, troughs in P/E ratios have occurred all over the place. https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea...
Spooky23 2y ago
This weekend is going to determine that. There’s a pretty blood chance we’ll see the real crash Monday.
hackly 2y ago
Only one man knows the answer to this question.
- outer_web 2y ago
  He doesn't know either.
whatever1 2y ago
The vision is to convert the American economy from one with infinite profit margins (ads and software) to a manufacturing one with single percentage profit margins and limited growth potential due to tariff environment. So I think a 80-90% drop in the overall market value is justified.
- khazhoux 2y ago
  I don't think these tariffs would affect software. ?
  - whatever1 2y ago
    All of the Chinese buying Google and Facebook ads, do you think they will keep buying? Do you think that Apple, Google, Fb will be able to continue operating in the EU as frictionlessly as they do today ? US software now has to respect borders.
neogodless 2y ago
I don't know the machinations at the level of Trump, the billionaires, and the GOP senators and representatives. Depending on what's going on, those in congress will never do their job. OR, if they just believed in Trump's influence on votes in "free and fair elections", they might eventually hit a breaking point. Because if they let this happen unchecked, they will be voted out, 100%. (Not to mention everyone they know will have lost money, many more jobless, hungry, etc.) Being complicit in triggering a great depression while being an elected official cannot be good for your career long-term.
jampa 2y ago
As someone who sold all my stock in January and invested into bonds, I think we are far from it, but the bottom it will depend if the tariffs are lifted in the next days. The worst case scenario would be tariffs being kept and the FED eventually losing independence. I think it is safe to say that we probably will go back to pre COVID levels, since the trust in the stock market is eroded, but this time with high interest rates.
blatantly 2y ago
Probably April or May 2025. I'm bullish still. But then I'm not all US stocks anyway.

Sure, there's a bottom, but we're not close to it yet.

It could be down another 50%, it could already have passed. Historically, troughs in P/E ratios have occurred all over the place. https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea...

Spooky23 2y ago

This weekend is going to determine that. There’s a pretty blood chance we’ll see the real crash Monday.

hackly 2y ago

Only one man knows the answer to this question.

outer_web 2y ago
He doesn't know either.

whatever1 2y ago

The vision is to convert the American economy from one with infinite profit margins (ads and software) to a manufacturing one with single percentage profit margins and limited growth potential due to tariff environment. So I think a 80-90% drop in the overall market value is justified.

khazhoux 2y ago
I don't think these tariffs would affect software. ?
- whatever1 2y ago
  All of the Chinese buying Google and Facebook ads, do you think they will keep buying? Do you think that Apple, Google, Fb will be able to continue operating in the EU as frictionlessly as they do today ? US software now has to respect borders.

neogodless 2y ago

I don't know the machinations at the level of Trump, the billionaires, and the GOP senators and representatives. Depending on what's going on, those in congress will never do their job. OR, if they just believed in Trump's influence on votes in "free and fair elections", they might eventually hit a breaking point. Because if they let this happen unchecked, they will be voted out, 100%. (Not to mention everyone they know will have lost money, many more jobless, hungry, etc.) Being complicit in triggering a great depression while being an elected official cannot be good for your career long-term.

jampa 2y ago

As someone who sold all my stock in January and invested into bonds, I think we are far from it, but the bottom it will depend if the tariffs are lifted in the next days. The worst case scenario would be tariffs being kept and the FED eventually losing independence. I think it is safe to say that we probably will go back to pre COVID levels, since the trust in the stock market is eroded, but this time with high interest rates.

blatantly 2y ago

Probably April or May 2025. I'm bullish still. But then I'm not all US stocks anyway.