4 ms·

Say hypothetically the Tarrifs are all reversed on Monday, does the market go back to normal?

vizzier 2y ago
Seems doubtful. Trust is earned slowly but spent quickly.
krapp 2y ago
No, why would it? The United States has burned trust and credibility that can never be recovered. Its collapse into a pariah state like North Korea or Russia, cut off from diplomatic ties and trade and left by most of the world to decompose into an irrelevant husk is inevitable. The market will adapt, likely after years of global depression, with China and Europe competing to become the new global hegemon. The normal that existed prior to Trump, like all those jobs he promised, is never coming back. If you see a Trump supporter, be sure to thank them.
- ethics13 2y ago
  This is a bit of hyperbole. Market will normalize, the most extreme case which even the biggest critics of Trump argue, will be recession. Even that's a probability and not a certainty. How are you predicting Depression (global no less)? Speaking as one of the biggest Trump critics.
Macha 2y ago
Define go back to normal. Will it go up from where we are? Sure. Will it immediately return to its former highs, unlikely, the US government has now proven to be a lot more unpredictable and risky than the previous prices assumed. Will it eventually inch its way back to the highs, probably.
ThatMedicIsASpy 2y ago
The current US government is a circus full of unqualified yes-people - the only thing that stops losing even more is to disband the circus.
rsynnott 2y ago
It would… go up. Probably not back to normal, because previously the markets were largely assuming that Trump was just bullshitting about tariffs. What can happen once can happen again. For that matter, it is likely that these tariffs are not fully priced in; obviously there is still the chance that Trump turns around and says “only joking” (this pretty much happened with the main Canada and Mexico tariffs a month or so ago), and there is the chance that congress will put him back in his box (his power to do anything with tariffs is entirely within the gift of congress).

Seems doubtful. Trust is earned slowly but spent quickly.

No, why would it? The United States has burned trust and credibility that can never be recovered. Its collapse into a pariah state like North Korea or Russia, cut off from diplomatic ties and trade and left by most of the world to decompose into an irrelevant husk is inevitable. The market will adapt, likely after years of global depression, with China and Europe competing to become the new global hegemon. The normal that existed prior to Trump, like all those jobs he promised, is never coming back. If you see a Trump supporter, be sure to thank them.

ethics13 2y ago
This is a bit of hyperbole. Market will normalize, the most extreme case which even the biggest critics of Trump argue, will be recession. Even that's a probability and not a certainty. How are you predicting Depression (global no less)? Speaking as one of the biggest Trump critics.

Macha 2y ago

Define go back to normal. Will it go up from where we are? Sure. Will it immediately return to its former highs, unlikely, the US government has now proven to be a lot more unpredictable and risky than the previous prices assumed. Will it eventually inch its way back to the highs, probably.

ThatMedicIsASpy 2y ago

The current US government is a circus full of unqualified yes-people - the only thing that stops losing even more is to disband the circus.

rsynnott 2y ago

It would… go up. Probably not back to normal, because previously the markets were largely assuming that Trump was just bullshitting about tariffs. What can happen once can happen again. For that matter, it is likely that these tariffs are not fully priced in; obviously there is still the chance that Trump turns around and says “only joking” (this pretty much happened with the main Canada and Mexico tariffs a month or so ago), and there is the chance that congress will put him back in his box (his power to do anything with tariffs is entirely within the gift of congress).