4 ms·

The reason it is not a real market crash yet is the uncertainties around those tariffs, as they seem too absurd to be kept as announced. And I believe this is

The reason it is not a real market crash yet is the uncertainties around those tariffs, as they seem too absurd to be kept as announced. And I believe this is a correct analysis, but I also think that Trump is over playing his hand and miscalculating the reactions of the world at large. We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming weeks, but I am not optimist about the final outcome.

jfengel 2y ago
Which is to say: the market hasn't yet fully priced in the effects of the tariffs. It will continue to fall until people have accepted that the tariffs are here to stay. After that it could level off. Or continue to fall, if there are knock-on effects that haven't yet been priced in. (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)
- paulryanrogers 2y ago
  > (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!) Didn't we find out like a century ago with the Smooth-Hawley tariffs? Do we really have to test this again, and now in the sloppiest most haphazard way?
  - jfengel 2y ago
    We appear to be intent on repeating a lot of old mistakes. So we're gonna find out.
lvl155 2y ago
Vietnam already approached this admin hat in hand. Remember they are all politicians and they will do what it takes to remain in power. Having a global financial meltdown is a bluff. Some countries will play the game (smaller ones) and some will not (China).
- bagels 2y ago
  Right, so we can get some concessions from Vietnam, but completely get cut off from Europe and China. Great trade.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    EU is negotiating an off-ramp (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins-us-tariff-talks-while-accepting-end-of-old-world-order https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins...) China is not playing ball, but equally large India is working on announcing a Bilateral Trade Agreement (a FTA in all but name) with the US by Aug-Oct.
- goatlover 2y ago
  I'm thinking China not playing the game is a much bigger deal than countries like Vietnam bending the knee.
  - stephc_int13 2y ago
    China is the real target, others tariffs are mostly a smoke screen and considered a potentially beneficial side effect.
    - llm_nerd 2y ago
      >China is the real target, To put it impolitely, bullshit. Zero rational analysis comes to this conclusion. Trump began this idiocy by attacking Canada and Mexico, the very countries he triumphantly signed his trade agreement with just five years ago. He lied -- that's what he does -- about a made up Fentanyl emergency, but it's clear the guy loves tariffs (he's been going on about this for years, and still people try to pretend that isn't what this is about...amazingly everyone just assumes that everything out of his mouth is a lie). Outside of oil and gas the US has (or rather had) a massive trade surplus with Canada, but oh well that's a thing of the past now and will never return. Then he attacked everyone else. He did the same thing in term one. He could easily have gotten everyone onboard with strategies to contain or slow China, but instead he pushed everyone else away. He had adults in the room containing his profound sabotage of the US the first time, but this time he's going to speedrun the country to dissolution. I get that the Trump faithful are desperately trying to do the 4D chess thing now. It will never work. The clown has no idea what he is doing, and has build such a cult no one can tell him how profoundly stupid he is. His treasury secretary is likely to quit in days.
le-mark 2y ago
> We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming ~weeks~ YEARS Fixed that for you. It’s horrifying isn’t it?
EasyMark 2y ago
They seem absurd to people using their common sense. Trump is not normal, this is his 5th grade understanding of how tariffs work. All these people saying "we should live through the pain". But why? This is inflicted not some outside market crash, it is deliberate destruction of the economy, I can't figure out any other reason that because of Russian kompromat on Trump.

jfengel 2y ago

Which is to say: the market hasn't yet fully priced in the effects of the tariffs. It will continue to fall until people have accepted that the tariffs are here to stay. After that it could level off. Or continue to fall, if there are knock-on effects that haven't yet been priced in. (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)

paulryanrogers 2y ago
> (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!) Didn't we find out like a century ago with the Smooth-Hawley tariffs? Do we really have to test this again, and now in the sloppiest most haphazard way?
- jfengel 2y ago
  We appear to be intent on repeating a lot of old mistakes. So we're gonna find out.

lvl155 2y ago

Vietnam already approached this admin hat in hand. Remember they are all politicians and they will do what it takes to remain in power. Having a global financial meltdown is a bluff. Some countries will play the game (smaller ones) and some will not (China).

bagels 2y ago
Right, so we can get some concessions from Vietnam, but completely get cut off from Europe and China. Great trade.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  EU is negotiating an off-ramp (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins-us-tariff-talks-while-accepting-end-of-old-world-order https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins...) China is not playing ball, but equally large India is working on announcing a Bilateral Trade Agreement (a FTA in all but name) with the US by Aug-Oct.
goatlover 2y ago
I'm thinking China not playing the game is a much bigger deal than countries like Vietnam bending the knee.
- stephc_int13 2y ago
  China is the real target, others tariffs are mostly a smoke screen and considered a potentially beneficial side effect.
  - llm_nerd 2y ago
    >China is the real target, To put it impolitely, bullshit. Zero rational analysis comes to this conclusion. Trump began this idiocy by attacking Canada and Mexico, the very countries he triumphantly signed his trade agreement with just five years ago. He lied -- that's what he does -- about a made up Fentanyl emergency, but it's clear the guy loves tariffs (he's been going on about this for years, and still people try to pretend that isn't what this is about...amazingly everyone just assumes that everything out of his mouth is a lie). Outside of oil and gas the US has (or rather had) a massive trade surplus with Canada, but oh well that's a thing of the past now and will never return. Then he attacked everyone else. He did the same thing in term one. He could easily have gotten everyone onboard with strategies to contain or slow China, but instead he pushed everyone else away. He had adults in the room containing his profound sabotage of the US the first time, but this time he's going to speedrun the country to dissolution. I get that the Trump faithful are desperately trying to do the 4D chess thing now. It will never work. The clown has no idea what he is doing, and has build such a cult no one can tell him how profoundly stupid he is. His treasury secretary is likely to quit in days.

le-mark 2y ago

> We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming ~weeks~ YEARS Fixed that for you. It’s horrifying isn’t it?

EasyMark 2y ago

They seem absurd to people using their common sense. Trump is not normal, this is his 5th grade understanding of how tariffs work. All these people saying "we should live through the pain". But why? This is inflicted not some outside market crash, it is deliberate destruction of the economy, I can't figure out any other reason that because of Russian kompromat on Trump.