Decent article, but I wanted to add a little extra warning to this: >One way to do this is to look at past returns and come up with the historical correlation.

Decent article, but I wanted to add a little extra warning to this: >One way to do this is to look at past returns and come up with the historical correlation. Be very wary of historical correlations, at any level. I am old enough (I was in my early teens) that I can remember the screaming of economists during the 1970s stagflation - it was known that you could not have high inflation and high unemployment at the same time. Until we did.