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What's worse is lets say it takes you 3-4 years to get your factory online. A new admin comes in and rescinds all the tariffs. Now your new factory and all it's

What's worse is lets say it takes you 3-4 years to get your factory online. A new admin comes in and rescinds all the tariffs. Now your new factory and all it's debt need to compete with the pre-tariff prices.

brabel 2y ago
That's quite likely to happen given how American politics tend to go left to right then back almost every election. I suppose some companies (but not all) will prefer to lose some money now rather than to take the risk of investing in large factories in the USA and lose whole factories, along with all money they invested into it, later.
jklinger410 2y ago
Sorry, but let's be clear about something. Capital has an overwhelming say in the direction of the American government. If they want to push us in a direction, they can simply buy that direction. They bought this one, and now they are crying about it. So the answer to your question is: go invest in a congress person. Buy stability. Or else remain flexible, don't invest, go out of business, whatever.
Workaccount2 2y ago
The tariffs are going to be used as leverage in negotiations in the following months. If countries sign on to trump's new trade agreements, it likely won't make sense to rescind them. Stephan Miran, Trumps top economic advisor, laid out exactly what they are doing in an essay he wrote back in November[1]. For better or worse, this is what they seem to be moving forward with, and the document spells out things like unilateral tariffs and expecting a lot of potential market volatility, before offering trade terms that seek to devalue the USD in return for protection and favorable trade agreements. In short, they are trying to force a global trade restructuring that will increase US manufacturing strength and weaken US financial strength - all while trying to keep reserve currency status. [1]https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...
- russdill 2y ago
  This isn't 4d chess. The first trading partners he threatened were Canada and Mexico, who we set up a trading agreement with in his last presidency and declared it the best trade agreements ever.
  - Workaccount2 2y ago
    Don't worry, I'm stuck on the same terrifying bus as you.
jerlam 2y ago
Doesn't even need to be a new administration. Many people online are saying (or trying to convince themselves) that the tariffs are part of some smart negotiating strategy, and that they will be rescinded once other countries feel the pain (or when citizens revolt). So large companies will hold out on doing any major investment, lest they be holding the bag. The administration's general instability and flip-floppiness makes it impossible to make any long-term business decisions. Having a leader who can't be trusted to change their mind on a moment's notice does damage regardless of the policies.
- bluGill 2y ago
  > impossible to make any long-term business decisions. Only if the long term decision depends on high tariffs. There are lots of business decisions that don't.
  - ytpete 2y ago
    An awful lot of business decisions depend on the expected price of the materials and equipment your business needs, and/or what market price you can expect to be able to charge for whatever it is you plan to sell. Tariffs this sweeping will make both of those things much harder to predict for almost every business in the country soon.
  - jerlam 2y ago
    The federal government does a lot more than dictate tariffs. There's immigration, monetary policy, war spending, etc. And Trump is not afraid to bully governors, so state policies will also be affected.
- beefnugs 2y ago
  Maybe crashing the stock market really is part of the plan, i mean if you arent investing maybe you should use that money to open a factory? I hear AI will do all the labor for you and that will "only get better (TM)" Although all those nvidia racks apparently use more power than any datacenter in the world has ever deployed in the past... so i hope you know how to run your own power plant onsite too Oops you also need to install prison level security around all your buildings and homes because the entire population wants your blood, thats ok its an excuse to diversify into weaponized drone manufacturing and local deployment which is another big business opportunity. Wow so many opportunities for rich people!

brabel 2y ago

That's quite likely to happen given how American politics tend to go left to right then back almost every election. I suppose some companies (but not all) will prefer to lose some money now rather than to take the risk of investing in large factories in the USA and lose whole factories, along with all money they invested into it, later.

jklinger410 2y ago

Sorry, but let's be clear about something. Capital has an overwhelming say in the direction of the American government. If they want to push us in a direction, they can simply buy that direction. They bought this one, and now they are crying about it. So the answer to your question is: go invest in a congress person. Buy stability. Or else remain flexible, don't invest, go out of business, whatever.

Workaccount2 2y ago

The tariffs are going to be used as leverage in negotiations in the following months. If countries sign on to trump's new trade agreements, it likely won't make sense to rescind them. Stephan Miran, Trumps top economic advisor, laid out exactly what they are doing in an essay he wrote back in November[1]. For better or worse, this is what they seem to be moving forward with, and the document spells out things like unilateral tariffs and expecting a lot of potential market volatility, before offering trade terms that seek to devalue the USD in return for protection and favorable trade agreements. In short, they are trying to force a global trade restructuring that will increase US manufacturing strength and weaken US financial strength - all while trying to keep reserve currency status. [1]https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...

russdill 2y ago
This isn't 4d chess. The first trading partners he threatened were Canada and Mexico, who we set up a trading agreement with in his last presidency and declared it the best trade agreements ever.
- Workaccount2 2y ago
  Don't worry, I'm stuck on the same terrifying bus as you.

jerlam 2y ago

Doesn't even need to be a new administration. Many people online are saying (or trying to convince themselves) that the tariffs are part of some smart negotiating strategy, and that they will be rescinded once other countries feel the pain (or when citizens revolt). So large companies will hold out on doing any major investment, lest they be holding the bag. The administration's general instability and flip-floppiness makes it impossible to make any long-term business decisions. Having a leader who can't be trusted to change their mind on a moment's notice does damage regardless of the policies.

bluGill 2y ago
> impossible to make any long-term business decisions. Only if the long term decision depends on high tariffs. There are lots of business decisions that don't.
- ytpete 2y ago
  An awful lot of business decisions depend on the expected price of the materials and equipment your business needs, and/or what market price you can expect to be able to charge for whatever it is you plan to sell. Tariffs this sweeping will make both of those things much harder to predict for almost every business in the country soon.
- jerlam 2y ago
  The federal government does a lot more than dictate tariffs. There's immigration, monetary policy, war spending, etc. And Trump is not afraid to bully governors, so state policies will also be affected.
beefnugs 2y ago
Maybe crashing the stock market really is part of the plan, i mean if you arent investing maybe you should use that money to open a factory? I hear AI will do all the labor for you and that will "only get better (TM)" Although all those nvidia racks apparently use more power than any datacenter in the world has ever deployed in the past... so i hope you know how to run your own power plant onsite too Oops you also need to install prison level security around all your buildings and homes because the entire population wants your blood, thats ok its an excuse to diversify into weaponized drone manufacturing and local deployment which is another big business opportunity. Wow so many opportunities for rich people!