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Given the chaos, how does any industry make long term investments any more? All financial plans could be flipped upside down for any reason at any time.

Thorrez 2y ago
I've heard the most prosperous times for the US are when the president's party is different from the congressional majority. Few laws get passed, so things stay stable for businesses.
- Herring 2y ago
  No, the issue is half of Americans and American states are still into Red-state zero-sum policies which don't work very well in a modern world and modern economy. Today you want the black/female/trans/foreigner working at their absolute full potential, not slaving in your farm. In the past it didn't matter so much economically because slaving in your farm was still one of the most important jobs. In 1900, ~40% of the American workforce was employed in agriculture. Yet even then the (ex) slave states were poor compared to northern states because they didn’t know how to invest in their population (still don’t).
onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> Given the chaos, how does any industry make long term investments any more? You could invest at the whims of the current administration and then invest further in supporting the autocracy. That's how they do it in Russia.
Tiktaalik 2y ago
they don't
kleton 2y ago
Donald Trump has advocated for tariffs for 40 years. Agree with them or not, they were quite predictable, not chaos.
- itishappy 2y ago
  This is larger than tariffs: > But even before President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports, many of those projects were being canceled — leaving thousands of jobs and the shift to clean energy in doubt. Sure, his energy policy was predictable too, but you'd have needed to predict the election results too to act on them. Who knows that'll happen in 4 years, will it be more of this or will we see EV subsidies returned? That's the part that's hardest to predict.
- bluGill 2y ago
  What isn't predictable is how long things will last. Many in congress are for free trade and have the ability to stop tariffs in various ways. (tariffs fall under some emergency ruling not a low passed by congress as the constitution requires). There is likely to be more elections in the future with different people in charge with different intents. The question is will the next people in charge also keep tariffs high.
- ytpete 2y ago
  Yet he's already changed the amounts and/or start dates how many times in just a couple of months? It will continue like that because chaos is the nature of his whim-driven presidency. Further, he won't be in power long enough to ensure nothing changes for 40 years – US trade policy isn't read-only form here on out. Painful tariffs might not even survive until the midterms next year, if Congresspeople start fretting about keeping their jobs.
bluGill 2y ago
You can make investments if you have a long term outlook. Odds are the president will be different in 4 years. Odds are the democrats take the house in 2 years (there is a small chance they take the senate too, though that seems unlikely). There is a 25% change Trump isn't even alive in 4 years just because of age, and the farther beyond that you look the less likely it is he lives. Which is to say you have to invest for something knowing things will change and not knowing how. As always. This might even be a good time to invest if you have cash - prices are down and interest rates are up.
- jfengel 2y ago
  Democrats can't unring this bell. Decades of trust are irrevocably lost. Ordinarily, I'd say you're right about investment. Long term, the market goes up. Trying to time the market isn't very effective; you might as well invest cash now. These circumstances aren't ordinary. This is potentially a decade-long depression. I really hate saying that; "this time it's different" always sound stupid. But every nation on earth has just looked at the US and said, "Maybe not", and that's really unprecedented. I'm not pulling out of the market myself, so you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Without more information, I don't know what to do, so I'm sticking with inertia, and hoping I'm wrong about the magnitude of the potential cataclysm.

Thorrez 2y ago

I've heard the most prosperous times for the US are when the president's party is different from the congressional majority. Few laws get passed, so things stay stable for businesses.

Herring 2y ago
No, the issue is half of Americans and American states are still into Red-state zero-sum policies which don't work very well in a modern world and modern economy. Today you want the black/female/trans/foreigner working at their absolute full potential, not slaving in your farm. In the past it didn't matter so much economically because slaving in your farm was still one of the most important jobs. In 1900, ~40% of the American workforce was employed in agriculture. Yet even then the (ex) slave states were poor compared to northern states because they didn’t know how to invest in their population (still don’t).

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago

> Given the chaos, how does any industry make long term investments any more? You could invest at the whims of the current administration and then invest further in supporting the autocracy. That's how they do it in Russia.

Tiktaalik 2y ago

they don't

kleton 2y ago

Donald Trump has advocated for tariffs for 40 years. Agree with them or not, they were quite predictable, not chaos.

itishappy 2y ago
This is larger than tariffs: > But even before President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports, many of those projects were being canceled — leaving thousands of jobs and the shift to clean energy in doubt. Sure, his energy policy was predictable too, but you'd have needed to predict the election results too to act on them. Who knows that'll happen in 4 years, will it be more of this or will we see EV subsidies returned? That's the part that's hardest to predict.
bluGill 2y ago
What isn't predictable is how long things will last. Many in congress are for free trade and have the ability to stop tariffs in various ways. (tariffs fall under some emergency ruling not a low passed by congress as the constitution requires). There is likely to be more elections in the future with different people in charge with different intents. The question is will the next people in charge also keep tariffs high.
ytpete 2y ago
Yet he's already changed the amounts and/or start dates how many times in just a couple of months? It will continue like that because chaos is the nature of his whim-driven presidency. Further, he won't be in power long enough to ensure nothing changes for 40 years – US trade policy isn't read-only form here on out. Painful tariffs might not even survive until the midterms next year, if Congresspeople start fretting about keeping their jobs.

bluGill 2y ago

You can make investments if you have a long term outlook. Odds are the president will be different in 4 years. Odds are the democrats take the house in 2 years (there is a small chance they take the senate too, though that seems unlikely). There is a 25% change Trump isn't even alive in 4 years just because of age, and the farther beyond that you look the less likely it is he lives. Which is to say you have to invest for something knowing things will change and not knowing how. As always. This might even be a good time to invest if you have cash - prices are down and interest rates are up.

jfengel 2y ago
Democrats can't unring this bell. Decades of trust are irrevocably lost. Ordinarily, I'd say you're right about investment. Long term, the market goes up. Trying to time the market isn't very effective; you might as well invest cash now. These circumstances aren't ordinary. This is potentially a decade-long depression. I really hate saying that; "this time it's different" always sound stupid. But every nation on earth has just looked at the US and said, "Maybe not", and that's really unprecedented. I'm not pulling out of the market myself, so you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Without more information, I don't know what to do, so I'm sticking with inertia, and hoping I'm wrong about the magnitude of the potential cataclysm.