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I think tariffs are terrible and will harm the economy, but the stock market isn't the economy (re: dow sliding).

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
I didn't say that it is. You don't have to take my word for it, American independent voters believe he is doing very badly on the economy.
- amazingamazing 2y ago
  Other than the stock market what metric are you using to indicate that the economy is doing badly? A jobs report just came out today indicating good growth there.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    The only leading indicators that really matter due to their self-fulfilling nature: people's confidence. The below is from before he started doing the thing "he's not stupid enough to do," these tariffs. > A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise. > Consumers’ expectations for the future at a 12-year low https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-amid-tariff-uncertainty/ https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-am... https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
    - amazingamazing 2y ago
      so in other words there are no actual indicators yet.
      - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Well the most responsive "actual" indicator we have is flashing bright red, but you've already decided that doesn't matter to you
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        Consumer confidence isn’t actually a metric of the economy. At best it’s a correlate to an actual indicator, which can be something you can link if available. Simplest way to make my point is to look at the confidence during covid vs January of this year.
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Was this a response to my comment? There’s no such thing as an “actual indicator.” The economy isn’t a real thing that exists. It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        > The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator. yes. > It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. sentiment also can be measured, but is meaningless, because it can contradict behavior, which actually affects the real world. sentiment certainly is correlated to behavior, which is why it's a good leading indicator, but is often wrong about what is happening (see the USA 2024 election, and covid).
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        > no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. Sure, employment rate is measured though uhh, via a survey just like consumer sentiment. The relationship between employment rate and "the economy?" A correlation. The rest of your comment is umm... internally contradictory.
  - CamperBob2 2y ago
    And we're supposed to trust any official economic reports that the administration releases...? That has always been kind of questionable, and now it's laughable.

I didn't say that it is. You don't have to take my word for it, American independent voters believe he is doing very badly on the economy.

amazingamazing 2y ago
Other than the stock market what metric are you using to indicate that the economy is doing badly? A jobs report just came out today indicating good growth there.
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  The only leading indicators that really matter due to their self-fulfilling nature: people's confidence. The below is from before he started doing the thing "he's not stupid enough to do," these tariffs. > A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise. > Consumers’ expectations for the future at a 12-year low https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-amid-tariff-uncertainty/ https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-am... https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
  - amazingamazing 2y ago
    so in other words there are no actual indicators yet.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      Well the most responsive "actual" indicator we have is flashing bright red, but you've already decided that doesn't matter to you
      - amazingamazing 2y ago
        Consumer confidence isn’t actually a metric of the economy. At best it’s a correlate to an actual indicator, which can be something you can link if available. Simplest way to make my point is to look at the confidence during covid vs January of this year.
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Was this a response to my comment? There’s no such thing as an “actual indicator.” The economy isn’t a real thing that exists. It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        > The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator. yes. > It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. sentiment also can be measured, but is meaningless, because it can contradict behavior, which actually affects the real world. sentiment certainly is correlated to behavior, which is why it's a good leading indicator, but is often wrong about what is happening (see the USA 2024 election, and covid).
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        > no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. Sure, employment rate is measured though uhh, via a survey just like consumer sentiment. The relationship between employment rate and "the economy?" A correlation. The rest of your comment is umm... internally contradictory.
- CamperBob2 2y ago
  And we're supposed to trust any official economic reports that the administration releases...? That has always been kind of questionable, and now it's laughable.