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I don't think the public opinion is as dire as it seems. He has a very vocal cult following, but the real swing in the election was politically disaffected peop

I don't think the public opinion is as dire as it seems. He has a very vocal cult following, but the real swing in the election was politically disaffected people who are just really hard to reach. This is sad but the good news is that it's just a matter of reaching them — and MAGA is clearly and demonstrably failing on the number one issue for the vast majority of voters which is economy.

amazingamazing 2y ago
I think tariffs are terrible and will harm the economy, but the stock market isn't the economy (re: dow sliding).
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  I didn't say that it is. You don't have to take my word for it, American independent voters believe he is doing very badly on the economy.
  - amazingamazing 2y ago
    Other than the stock market what metric are you using to indicate that the economy is doing badly? A jobs report just came out today indicating good growth there.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      The only leading indicators that really matter due to their self-fulfilling nature: people's confidence. The below is from before he started doing the thing "he's not stupid enough to do," these tariffs. > A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise. > Consumers’ expectations for the future at a 12-year low https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-amid-tariff-uncertainty/ https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-am... https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
      - amazingamazing 2y ago
        so in other words there are no actual indicators yet.
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Well the most responsive "actual" indicator we have is flashing bright red, but you've already decided that doesn't matter to you
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        Consumer confidence isn’t actually a metric of the economy. At best it’s a correlate to an actual indicator, which can be something you can link if available. Simplest way to make my point is to look at the confidence during covid vs January of this year.
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Was this a response to my comment? There’s no such thing as an “actual indicator.” The economy isn’t a real thing that exists. It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        > The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator. yes. > It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. sentiment also can be measured, but is meaningless, because it can contradict behavior, which actually affects the real world. sentiment certainly is correlated to behavior, which is why it's a good leading indicator, but is often wrong about what is happening (see the USA 2024 election, and covid).
        2y ago
    - CamperBob2 2y ago
      And we're supposed to trust any official economic reports that the administration releases...? That has always been kind of questionable, and now it's laughable.
spencerflem 2y ago
The democrats have an even lower approval rating and seem to be staunchly refusing to change. Assuming we still have elections, I don't see how it ends as anything other than swapping desperately back and forth between the two corporate parties.
- sorcerer-mar 2y ago
  > The democrats have an even lower approval rating and seem to be staunchly refusing to change. These two statements can't both be true for very long. The Democratic Party is going to reinvent itself. Turbulent and uncertain though it may be, this is how it works. The GOP just used its generational transformation, has been given free rein to prove their ideas, and lo and behold: they suck!
  - spencerflem 2y ago
    They haven't yet - they approved Trump's budget bill and Marco Rubio was voted in unanimously 99-0. They're still doing talks alongside Peter Thiel. Protestors are being arrested by Blue Govenors in Blue States. I used to be more hopeful but if they won't act now, in the direst of times, then they must actually be completely bought by corporate interests.
    - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
      Parties don't change by the individuals within them changing their minds, they change by replacing the individuals. People are absolutely livid about the things you're mentioning, which is why their approval ratings are low, which is why they're going to be replaced. > then they must actually be completely bought by corporate interests. This is a non-sequitur. I know it's an easy out to avoid thinking through the actual mechanics at play here (one of which is certainly corporate interests), but it's worth being more curious about this stuff and the individuals' motivations.
      - spencerflem 2y ago
        I really hope you're right. It seems like their plan is a repeat of 2016, 2020, and 2024- to hope that Trump will be so unpopular that they can get elected without changing anything.
thiht 2y ago
Trump will just say the economy is better than ever and MAGA will say ok. They don't care about truth.

amazingamazing 2y ago

I think tariffs are terrible and will harm the economy, but the stock market isn't the economy (re: dow sliding).

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
I didn't say that it is. You don't have to take my word for it, American independent voters believe he is doing very badly on the economy.
- amazingamazing 2y ago
  Other than the stock market what metric are you using to indicate that the economy is doing badly? A jobs report just came out today indicating good growth there.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    The only leading indicators that really matter due to their self-fulfilling nature: people's confidence. The below is from before he started doing the thing "he's not stupid enough to do," these tariffs. > A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise. > Consumers’ expectations for the future at a 12-year low https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-amid-tariff-uncertainty/ https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-plummets-in-march-am... https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
    - amazingamazing 2y ago
      so in other words there are no actual indicators yet.
      - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Well the most responsive "actual" indicator we have is flashing bright red, but you've already decided that doesn't matter to you
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        Consumer confidence isn’t actually a metric of the economy. At best it’s a correlate to an actual indicator, which can be something you can link if available. Simplest way to make my point is to look at the confidence during covid vs January of this year.
        sorcerer-mar 2y ago
        Was this a response to my comment? There’s no such thing as an “actual indicator.” The economy isn’t a real thing that exists. It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator.
        amazingamazing 2y ago
        > The contents of the shopping cart of the person in front of you is an indicator. yes. > It’s all correlates, some leading, some trailing, some accurate, and some inaccurate. no. some things are actually measured, like employment rate. sentiment also can be measured, but is meaningless, because it can contradict behavior, which actually affects the real world. sentiment certainly is correlated to behavior, which is why it's a good leading indicator, but is often wrong about what is happening (see the USA 2024 election, and covid).
        2y ago
  - CamperBob2 2y ago
    And we're supposed to trust any official economic reports that the administration releases...? That has always been kind of questionable, and now it's laughable.

spencerflem 2y ago

The democrats have an even lower approval rating and seem to be staunchly refusing to change. Assuming we still have elections, I don't see how it ends as anything other than swapping desperately back and forth between the two corporate parties.

sorcerer-mar 2y ago
> The democrats have an even lower approval rating and seem to be staunchly refusing to change. These two statements can't both be true for very long. The Democratic Party is going to reinvent itself. Turbulent and uncertain though it may be, this is how it works. The GOP just used its generational transformation, has been given free rein to prove their ideas, and lo and behold: they suck!
- spencerflem 2y ago
  They haven't yet - they approved Trump's budget bill and Marco Rubio was voted in unanimously 99-0. They're still doing talks alongside Peter Thiel. Protestors are being arrested by Blue Govenors in Blue States. I used to be more hopeful but if they won't act now, in the direst of times, then they must actually be completely bought by corporate interests.
  - sorcerer-mar 2y ago
    Parties don't change by the individuals within them changing their minds, they change by replacing the individuals. People are absolutely livid about the things you're mentioning, which is why their approval ratings are low, which is why they're going to be replaced. > then they must actually be completely bought by corporate interests. This is a non-sequitur. I know it's an easy out to avoid thinking through the actual mechanics at play here (one of which is certainly corporate interests), but it's worth being more curious about this stuff and the individuals' motivations.
    - spencerflem 2y ago
      I really hope you're right. It seems like their plan is a repeat of 2016, 2020, and 2024- to hope that Trump will be so unpopular that they can get elected without changing anything.

thiht 2y ago

Trump will just say the economy is better than ever and MAGA will say ok. They don't care about truth.