4 ms·

No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the te

No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that would need government bailout to save the economy.

jpster 2y ago
What’s worrisome is, if they’re planning on things to suck until 2028, that is precisely when the next presidential election is supposed to happen. Suppose he feels like he must have 4 more years, to take credit for the V-shaped recovery, and not go out like a loser? Suppose he declines to step down?
- UncleEntity 2y ago
  They're already talking about how he can have a third term, 22nd amendment be damned.
  - goatlover 2y ago
    The recent Civil War movie had the president serving a 3rd term leading to 19 states seceding. How would the blue states respond to Trump ignoring the 22nd amendment?
    - yks 2y ago
      The same way they responded to ignoring of the 14th? The Supreme court will provide some travesty justification and that'll be it.
    - immibis 2y ago
      As a general rule, with some exceptions of course, Democrat politicians tend to "roll over and take it". If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is the president from 2028-2032, expect blue state leaders to just go "oh ok" and then accept that he is the president. You can contrast it with what red states would do if Obama had a third term.
ajross 2y ago
FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week. It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites. But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea. Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?
- fabian2k 2y ago
  I think at least some of them are also true believers. The administration is full of people that have their own extreme ideas on how the world should work and now they have the chance to try them.
- heisgone 2y ago
  $9 trillion of government debt is maturing over the next year. That's around 25% of the US debt. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-plays-cat-mouse-with-debt-sales-mike-dolan-2024-08-28/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-plays-cat-mou...
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    'Trump talked about tariffs to Opra in the 80s because 25% of US debt would mature in 2025' isn't the 4d chess you think it is.
  - ajross 2y ago
    Right, that's the amount issued in short term bonds and whatnot. It cycles all the time. But again: it's maturing. You don't need to "refinance it", for the same reason you don't refinance a mortgage with only $6k principle left. There's no point, just pay it off and work on a new loan. So the question becomes "can we get better rates for bonds?". And clearly the answer is hell no, because nothing in this mess makes US debt look more attractive to foreign investors. We're moving in the opposite direction from the way the cult expects things to go.
lenerdenator 2y ago
I don't think they have a strategy. These aren't people who care about the national debt. Trump has not only stated, but bragged publicly, that he does what he can to pay as little in tax as possible. He's had an appeal in front of the IRS for probably over a decade now for writing down the value of a business loss (the casino in Atlantic City, IIRC) that he received monetary gain from. That's not what you do when you see a financial issue as a threat to the nation you supposedly love. They are too short-sighted to have a strategy. If there's a depression or major recession, I don't think the government bailout would be the main concern. Civil unrest would be. I'm in my early 30s and I've seen four major financial crises (2002, 2008, 2020, and now 2025) in my lifetime. I'm doing alright because I come from a place of privilege. There are literally millions of people my age who aren't going to be doing alright in the situation you describe, and there's a good chance they would see that as the death knell of their hopes and dreams, all because of the shareholder and political classes in this country.

jpster 2y ago

What’s worrisome is, if they’re planning on things to suck until 2028, that is precisely when the next presidential election is supposed to happen. Suppose he feels like he must have 4 more years, to take credit for the V-shaped recovery, and not go out like a loser? Suppose he declines to step down?

UncleEntity 2y ago
They're already talking about how he can have a third term, 22nd amendment be damned.
- goatlover 2y ago
  The recent Civil War movie had the president serving a 3rd term leading to 19 states seceding. How would the blue states respond to Trump ignoring the 22nd amendment?
  - yks 2y ago
    The same way they responded to ignoring of the 14th? The Supreme court will provide some travesty justification and that'll be it.
  - immibis 2y ago
    As a general rule, with some exceptions of course, Democrat politicians tend to "roll over and take it". If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is the president from 2028-2032, expect blue state leaders to just go "oh ok" and then accept that he is the president. You can contrast it with what red states would do if Obama had a third term.

ajross 2y ago

FWIW, that is 100% a retconned explanation. No one anywhere was talking about this theory until the last week. It's clear that Trump demanded tariffs, tried to do it once early, and got cold feet. What happened with Lutnick et. al. is Court Politics. They saw an opening to improve their own status by selling a creative lie that would allow Trump to do what he wants. So he bought the lie and picked new favorites. But it remains a lie. No one serious thinks that this is a good idea. Also: refinance the debt?! First, no, that's not how federal bonds work. They're a contract and you pay the interest it says on the note. But even if you had a magic money pool around to do buybacks or whatever... most of the outstanding debt is in 30 year notes at like 3%! How low do you think they're going to get the Fed to go?

fabian2k 2y ago
I think at least some of them are also true believers. The administration is full of people that have their own extreme ideas on how the world should work and now they have the chance to try them.
heisgone 2y ago
$9 trillion of government debt is maturing over the next year. That's around 25% of the US debt. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-plays-cat-mouse-with-debt-sales-mike-dolan-2024-08-28/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-plays-cat-mou...
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  'Trump talked about tariffs to Opra in the 80s because 25% of US debt would mature in 2025' isn't the 4d chess you think it is.
- ajross 2y ago
  Right, that's the amount issued in short term bonds and whatnot. It cycles all the time. But again: it's maturing. You don't need to "refinance it", for the same reason you don't refinance a mortgage with only $6k principle left. There's no point, just pay it off and work on a new loan. So the question becomes "can we get better rates for bonds?". And clearly the answer is hell no, because nothing in this mess makes US debt look more attractive to foreign investors. We're moving in the opposite direction from the way the cult expects things to go.

lenerdenator 2y ago

I don't think they have a strategy. These aren't people who care about the national debt. Trump has not only stated, but bragged publicly, that he does what he can to pay as little in tax as possible. He's had an appeal in front of the IRS for probably over a decade now for writing down the value of a business loss (the casino in Atlantic City, IIRC) that he received monetary gain from. That's not what you do when you see a financial issue as a threat to the nation you supposedly love. They are too short-sighted to have a strategy. If there's a depression or major recession, I don't think the government bailout would be the main concern. Civil unrest would be. I'm in my early 30s and I've seen four major financial crises (2002, 2008, 2020, and now 2025) in my lifetime. I'm doing alright because I come from a place of privilege. There are literally millions of people my age who aren't going to be doing alright in the situation you describe, and there's a good chance they would see that as the death knell of their hopes and dreams, all because of the shareholder and political classes in this country.