Your whole argument is based on "it's causal because we saw a peak just after a bank collapse", as if a fire started bt a spark couldn't have fuel and generate

Your whole argument is based on "it's causal because we saw a peak just after a bank collapse", as if a fire started bt a spark couldn't have fuel and generate other sparks in a positive feedback loop. The rest is basically "there is evidence that" without nothing to back it up. See Rustici (2005),Irwin (1998), Bond (1993) and Crucini (1996)