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If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; however, with the changing of

If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; however, with the changing of the guard on the regular, most companies are just going to ignore it for 3.5 more years and hope that someone stops this from continuing. Because, if you think about it, it took decades to get us to where we are today and it'll take decades to reverse, even logistically. This is a bunch of stupidity and meaningless saber rattling that will do nothing but hurt everyone except the extremely wealthy who can afford the additional taxation on the consumer side because the Republicans will further reduce the taxation on the income side.

reverendsteveii 2y ago
Even if tariffs remained for decades reciprocal tariffs mean that no matter where you're located you pay a penalty when you buy manufacturing inputs and when you sell outputs.
overfeed 2y ago
> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move In 3 decades, the US won't be the biggest market for most products - sooner if the harebrained economic decisions somehow persist. Capital knows no borders, and American companies will "do the needful" to maximize profits wherever they may be found.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
  << Capital knows no borders Those statements are offered as truism ( and they do sound true enough ),but are they anything more than a hopeful assertion? I won't go into too many details, but I think it is not exactly axiomatic. It may be have been 99% accurate in the post-world war new world order, but, needless to say, that has shifted. We can argue over whether it is a temporary pit stop or a longer term change that is likely to remain its place, but 'capital knows no borders' has its place along other otherwise useful phrases such as 'bet you bottom dollar that tomorrow there'll be sun'. As in, sure, but it is more of an expression of our wants, not an if/then scenario.
  - overfeed 2y ago
    > I won't go into too many details, but I think it is not exactly axiomatic. The Panama papers, the Double Irish sandwich, and the US government pressuring the EU not to tax American tech companies all say otherwise. More prosaically, the average non-resident, non-American has a much easier time registering a Delaware LLC than attempting to get an American work visa. > It may be have been 99% accurate in the post-world war new world order, but, needless to say, that has shifted. Trump has proposed a green-card-inspired "Gold Card" for rich Russians^w investors to skip the immigration queue. Lot's of countries have investor visa with fewer hoops to jump than work visa. I don't see this changing any time soon. If you have the capital, and hint that you're interested in investing $1M+, most countries will roll out the red carpet for you. > As in, sure, but it is more of an expression of our wants, not an if/then scenario. To be clear I don't want labor to be more restricted than capital.
    - A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
      << The Panama papers, the Double Irish sandwich, and the US government pressuring the EU not to tax American tech companies all say otherwise. It is an interesting argument to make. Given current efforts to reshuffle existing system, those may no longer be available. Let me ask you a hypothetical instead: if those 'ways' are gone, is it automatically a given that new ones will emerge? If yes, why? If no, why? << Trump has proposed a green-card-inspired I don't want to write too much of an obvious comment, but.. how is it different from existing pre-Trump green cards sold to interested parties ( with lower price tag, but I am not asking about the price )? Is the existence of the card proof that capital has no borders or of something else? Is it inherent? I am now genuinely curious about your internal world model.
      - overfeed 2y ago
        > Let me ask you a hypothetical instead: if those 'ways' are gone, is it automatically a given that new ones will emerge? It's important to remember those were not the only ways, they just happened to have be the most effective, and became notorious because of it. Tax havens still exist, and we are still far from taxing corporate in the same stringent ways we tax individuals. The fact that governments only chipped at the edges with no systemic changes is telling. > I don't want to write too much of an obvious comment, but.. how is it different from existing pre-Trump green cards sold to interested parties You need to be specific about how green cards are currently sold before I can attempt to explain the difference. Further, if there is no difference IYO, then why is Trump proposing something new?
mywittyname 2y ago
> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; I don't understand why people take this as a given. Tariffs are a two-way street. What incentive does a company have to move a billion dollar facility to the USA when it will face reciprocal tariffs on any exported goods from the USA? The calculus is pretty complicated. Economies of scale become a factor - is one large global factory more efficient than separate regional facilities? Also income disparities; Americans can more afford to pay a 25% premium on a good than most of the rest of the world can; so maybe you just make Americans pay more. Or, maybe you do both, have a world-wide facility and a American facility, but still charge Americans the tariff premium, and pocket the 25% as profit instead (steel producers model; also pickup trucks); this works well in conjunction with the USA's low business taxes. Then there's "hacks" like shipping goods to a country that has lower tariffs with the USA, then using cheap local labor to do the bare minimum to have the goods considered to be produced there. There are some obvious good choices here, supposing the country's leadership is willing to play ball into the ninth inning. So it's not a given that that long-term effects are increased domestic production. It's just as likely to be a siphon of prosperity and a impediment to wealth generation since it will be hard to start companies in the USA that export products.
- rafaelmn 2y ago
  > What incentive does a company have to move a billion dollar facility to the USA when it will face reciprocal tariffs on any exported goods from the USA? Access to the richest single market in the world ?
  - hnaccount_rng 2y ago
    But that only works if you compare the US with other single countries. The EEA is similar to the US, China will be larger than the US, India will be larger than the US. Any of those combine and you loose by a factor of 2, etc
    - rafaelmn 2y ago
      EEA, despite decades of EU efforts, is not a single market. China and India are nowhere near in terms of purchasing power or individual consumption and won't be for decades.
giarc 2y ago
Wait 3.5 years? Look at the situation with Canada, you might just need to wait 3.5 days when he changes his mind and reverses the tariffs for some reason. The uncertainty must drive manufacturers nuts.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
  I think this, more than anything else, has been the real issue ( and I even think there was a recent Marketwatch article that basically said the same thing ): 'erratic decision making process'. There is an argument to be made about the direction of the policy, but the crazy back and forth, where it is not entirely clear 'who/how/why' and so on that people who do have to make decisions about future moves are left guessing. No one likes uncertainty.
- autoexec 2y ago
  > you might just need to wait 3.5 days when he changes his mind and reverses the tariffs for some reason. That reason will be that he and his pals have already bought up all the stocks that are crashing or the businesses that start failing all at insanely low prices which they can sell off for huge profits once the tariffs are reversed and their value returns to normal.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- feraloink 2y ago
  Manufacturers operate on a much longer timeline than 3,5 days. But your point is totally valid, about the flip-flopping. One reason might be because Trump is using tariffs as an economic weapon. Once he gets the concessions he wants (I don't know exactly what those are for... e.g. Canada) he then can say, okay, I won't tariff you after all.
ojbyrne 2y ago
I think there's going to be a major reallocation of corporate contributions over to the other party so they can fix this in less than two years via impeachment.
Animats 2y ago
> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; That's the European Union, with no tariffs within the EU, moderately high tariffs at the EU border, and few policy shocks. The EU plugs along, with somewhat protected industries, moderately high prices, good quality, and some export business.
- rstuart4133 2y ago
  > moderately high tariffs at the EU border, I've this assertion made here multiple times. The LLM's tell me the average tariff on goods coming into the EU is 2-3%. That's not what I would call "high". The tariffs imposed by the current USA administration start at 10%, and range up to 54% for nation it imports most from (China). Now that's what I would call "high", although if you are going to call 2-3% moderately high then you need a better superlative - perhaps "extreme".
  - systoll 2y ago
    > The LLM's tell me Actual sources of information give you 1.39% [1] [1]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tm.tax.mrch.wm.ar.zs https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tm.tax.mrch.wm.ar.zs
wesapien 2y ago
The US has a very high standard of living as a whole. In order for it to compete with others, it must become "as poor" as others. You simply can't undermine your trading partners and not disrupt your privilege as the global reserve status.
- rayiner 2y ago
  Why is “global reserve status” more important than building stuff?
  - wesapien 2y ago
    It's only one of the key levers of power of the USA. No biggie. You give people money represented by paper but mostly bits/bytes in exchange for other peoples materials and labor. Can you unpack what kind of stuff you're talking about? Are we talking about nascent industries? This stuff, who are you going to sell it to ?
    - rayiner 2y ago
      Doesn’t that seem fake to you? To me it sounds like a scam that’s destined to collapse in spectacular fashion.
      - wesapien 2y ago
        Fake, no not at all. Look around your where live. Think about who, where, and how those things were made. Scam? From whose perspective? There is only one global reserve currency. For all intents and purposes, that is the crown and heavy is the head that wears it. Sure it feels like a scam for anyone outside of the 1% or the political class or the plutocracy. The world followed the lead and it just wanted reciprocity (exclude the enemies of course). What seems fake to you and who is getting scammed by who?
        rayiner 2y ago
        I’m saying it seems like a scam when we consume more than we make by giving other countries pieces of paper. Why doesn’t the EU make the world’s reserve currency if that’s so great? Why doesn’t China try to make the Yuan the world’s reserve currency?Why did Angela Merkel cry when Obama tried to get Germany to engage in deficit spending? https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1084075/EU-news-Angela-Merkel-Barack-Obama-G20-eurozone-crisis-Greece https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1084075/EU-news-Angela-... And why do other countries keep doing it if we are the ones getting the better end of the deal?
jerkstate 2y ago
Leaders from both parties in US government agree that global trade needs to be rebalanced behind closed doors; I have videos of Pelosi and Schumer supporting tariffs to balance trade deficits with China specifically. For all of the talk about “reserve currency” it doesn’t really seem like sitting back and doing nothing will prevent global trade in RMB, euro, or some BRICS currency, which is increasing every year. So if we’re going to get to that state eventually anyways, might as well start preparing for it now. For all of the whining about the previous tariffs from the first Trump term, or the TCJA, neither were repealed when democrats had the opportunity, although there were small adjustments. That should really tell you all that you need to know. It turns out that manufacturing jobs are better for supporting a family than service jobs, hollowing out our economy so there are far less good paying manufacturing jobs turned out to be a huge mistake, originally pushed by CFR, Cato, Brookings, etc. so the only people who are doing well are the rich, because the benefits of global trade accrue almost exclusively to them (although many CPI advocates will make the argument that you’re better off now because you can own a nice cell phone even though you can’t own a house) The public BSing goes the other way too of course. Imagine getting worked up over classified stuff on a private email server and then letting your cabinet use signal and Gmail.
- wesapien 2y ago
  https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1907879785151475801 https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1907879785151475801 Protectionism is like child rearing. You're trying to protect the young (industry) so they survive to adulthood. The tarrifs are too broad. How the hell are you going to sell goods from HCOL area to the rest of the less affluent world? Even if some countries could afford it, how are you going to get goods across burned bridges?
- lovich 2y ago
  > It turns out that manufacturing jobs are better for supporting a family than service jobs, Why? I hear this implied, or outright said in your case, frequently with no backing for it. It seems like a truism.
  - jerkstate 2y ago
rtkwe 2y ago
Even if we did keep the tariffs long enough to reshore there's so many problems: 1) The resulting industries are only viable under the tariff regime so we have to keep it forever or until the production costs somehow equalize. 2) Who's going to work all these new jobs with the plan of reducing immigration drastically or practically eliminating it? We're only at 4.1% unemployment today. Are we supposed to baby boom our way to enough workers? While costs are jacked through the roof due to the tariffs?
WeylandYutani 2y ago
"incentive to move manufacturing back to the US" Only for the internal market. America will never again manufacture steel or cars for the rest of the world. The days of America being the factory of the world (which really only lasted a few decades) are forever gone.

reverendsteveii 2y ago

Even if tariffs remained for decades reciprocal tariffs mean that no matter where you're located you pay a penalty when you buy manufacturing inputs and when you sell outputs.

overfeed 2y ago

> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move In 3 decades, the US won't be the biggest market for most products - sooner if the harebrained economic decisions somehow persist. Capital knows no borders, and American companies will "do the needful" to maximize profits wherever they may be found.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
<< Capital knows no borders Those statements are offered as truism ( and they do sound true enough ),but are they anything more than a hopeful assertion? I won't go into too many details, but I think it is not exactly axiomatic. It may be have been 99% accurate in the post-world war new world order, but, needless to say, that has shifted. We can argue over whether it is a temporary pit stop or a longer term change that is likely to remain its place, but 'capital knows no borders' has its place along other otherwise useful phrases such as 'bet you bottom dollar that tomorrow there'll be sun'. As in, sure, but it is more of an expression of our wants, not an if/then scenario.
- overfeed 2y ago
  > I won't go into too many details, but I think it is not exactly axiomatic. The Panama papers, the Double Irish sandwich, and the US government pressuring the EU not to tax American tech companies all say otherwise. More prosaically, the average non-resident, non-American has a much easier time registering a Delaware LLC than attempting to get an American work visa. > It may be have been 99% accurate in the post-world war new world order, but, needless to say, that has shifted. Trump has proposed a green-card-inspired "Gold Card" for rich Russians^w investors to skip the immigration queue. Lot's of countries have investor visa with fewer hoops to jump than work visa. I don't see this changing any time soon. If you have the capital, and hint that you're interested in investing $1M+, most countries will roll out the red carpet for you. > As in, sure, but it is more of an expression of our wants, not an if/then scenario. To be clear I don't want labor to be more restricted than capital.
  - A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
    << The Panama papers, the Double Irish sandwich, and the US government pressuring the EU not to tax American tech companies all say otherwise. It is an interesting argument to make. Given current efforts to reshuffle existing system, those may no longer be available. Let me ask you a hypothetical instead: if those 'ways' are gone, is it automatically a given that new ones will emerge? If yes, why? If no, why? << Trump has proposed a green-card-inspired I don't want to write too much of an obvious comment, but.. how is it different from existing pre-Trump green cards sold to interested parties ( with lower price tag, but I am not asking about the price )? Is the existence of the card proof that capital has no borders or of something else? Is it inherent? I am now genuinely curious about your internal world model.
    - overfeed 2y ago
      > Let me ask you a hypothetical instead: if those 'ways' are gone, is it automatically a given that new ones will emerge? It's important to remember those were not the only ways, they just happened to have be the most effective, and became notorious because of it. Tax havens still exist, and we are still far from taxing corporate in the same stringent ways we tax individuals. The fact that governments only chipped at the edges with no systemic changes is telling. > I don't want to write too much of an obvious comment, but.. how is it different from existing pre-Trump green cards sold to interested parties You need to be specific about how green cards are currently sold before I can attempt to explain the difference. Further, if there is no difference IYO, then why is Trump proposing something new?

mywittyname 2y ago

> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; I don't understand why people take this as a given. Tariffs are a two-way street. What incentive does a company have to move a billion dollar facility to the USA when it will face reciprocal tariffs on any exported goods from the USA? The calculus is pretty complicated. Economies of scale become a factor - is one large global factory more efficient than separate regional facilities? Also income disparities; Americans can more afford to pay a 25% premium on a good than most of the rest of the world can; so maybe you just make Americans pay more. Or, maybe you do both, have a world-wide facility and a American facility, but still charge Americans the tariff premium, and pocket the 25% as profit instead (steel producers model; also pickup trucks); this works well in conjunction with the USA's low business taxes. Then there's "hacks" like shipping goods to a country that has lower tariffs with the USA, then using cheap local labor to do the bare minimum to have the goods considered to be produced there. There are some obvious good choices here, supposing the country's leadership is willing to play ball into the ninth inning. So it's not a given that that long-term effects are increased domestic production. It's just as likely to be a siphon of prosperity and a impediment to wealth generation since it will be hard to start companies in the USA that export products.

rafaelmn 2y ago
> What incentive does a company have to move a billion dollar facility to the USA when it will face reciprocal tariffs on any exported goods from the USA? Access to the richest single market in the world ?
- hnaccount_rng 2y ago
  But that only works if you compare the US with other single countries. The EEA is similar to the US, China will be larger than the US, India will be larger than the US. Any of those combine and you loose by a factor of 2, etc
  - rafaelmn 2y ago
    EEA, despite decades of EU efforts, is not a single market. China and India are nowhere near in terms of purchasing power or individual consumption and won't be for decades.

giarc 2y ago

Wait 3.5 years? Look at the situation with Canada, you might just need to wait 3.5 days when he changes his mind and reverses the tariffs for some reason. The uncertainty must drive manufacturers nuts.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
I think this, more than anything else, has been the real issue ( and I even think there was a recent Marketwatch article that basically said the same thing ): 'erratic decision making process'. There is an argument to be made about the direction of the policy, but the crazy back and forth, where it is not entirely clear 'who/how/why' and so on that people who do have to make decisions about future moves are left guessing. No one likes uncertainty.
autoexec 2y ago
> you might just need to wait 3.5 days when he changes his mind and reverses the tariffs for some reason. That reason will be that he and his pals have already bought up all the stocks that are crashing or the businesses that start failing all at insanely low prices which they can sell off for huge profits once the tariffs are reversed and their value returns to normal.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
feraloink 2y ago
Manufacturers operate on a much longer timeline than 3,5 days. But your point is totally valid, about the flip-flopping. One reason might be because Trump is using tariffs as an economic weapon. Once he gets the concessions he wants (I don't know exactly what those are for... e.g. Canada) he then can say, okay, I won't tariff you after all.

ojbyrne 2y ago

I think there's going to be a major reallocation of corporate contributions over to the other party so they can fix this in less than two years via impeachment.

Animats 2y ago

> If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; That's the European Union, with no tariffs within the EU, moderately high tariffs at the EU border, and few policy shocks. The EU plugs along, with somewhat protected industries, moderately high prices, good quality, and some export business.

rstuart4133 2y ago
> moderately high tariffs at the EU border, I've this assertion made here multiple times. The LLM's tell me the average tariff on goods coming into the EU is 2-3%. That's not what I would call "high". The tariffs imposed by the current USA administration start at 10%, and range up to 54% for nation it imports most from (China). Now that's what I would call "high", although if you are going to call 2-3% moderately high then you need a better superlative - perhaps "extreme".
- systoll 2y ago
  > The LLM's tell me Actual sources of information give you 1.39% [1] [1]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tm.tax.mrch.wm.ar.zs https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/tm.tax.mrch.wm.ar.zs

wesapien 2y ago

The US has a very high standard of living as a whole. In order for it to compete with others, it must become "as poor" as others. You simply can't undermine your trading partners and not disrupt your privilege as the global reserve status.

rayiner 2y ago
Why is “global reserve status” more important than building stuff?
- wesapien 2y ago
  It's only one of the key levers of power of the USA. No biggie. You give people money represented by paper but mostly bits/bytes in exchange for other peoples materials and labor. Can you unpack what kind of stuff you're talking about? Are we talking about nascent industries? This stuff, who are you going to sell it to ?
  - rayiner 2y ago
    Doesn’t that seem fake to you? To me it sounds like a scam that’s destined to collapse in spectacular fashion.
    - wesapien 2y ago
      Fake, no not at all. Look around your where live. Think about who, where, and how those things were made. Scam? From whose perspective? There is only one global reserve currency. For all intents and purposes, that is the crown and heavy is the head that wears it. Sure it feels like a scam for anyone outside of the 1% or the political class or the plutocracy. The world followed the lead and it just wanted reciprocity (exclude the enemies of course). What seems fake to you and who is getting scammed by who?
      - rayiner 2y ago
        I’m saying it seems like a scam when we consume more than we make by giving other countries pieces of paper. Why doesn’t the EU make the world’s reserve currency if that’s so great? Why doesn’t China try to make the Yuan the world’s reserve currency?Why did Angela Merkel cry when Obama tried to get Germany to engage in deficit spending? https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1084075/EU-news-Angela-Merkel-Barack-Obama-G20-eurozone-crisis-Greece https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1084075/EU-news-Angela-... And why do other countries keep doing it if we are the ones getting the better end of the deal?

jerkstate 2y ago

Leaders from both parties in US government agree that global trade needs to be rebalanced behind closed doors; I have videos of Pelosi and Schumer supporting tariffs to balance trade deficits with China specifically. For all of the talk about “reserve currency” it doesn’t really seem like sitting back and doing nothing will prevent global trade in RMB, euro, or some BRICS currency, which is increasing every year. So if we’re going to get to that state eventually anyways, might as well start preparing for it now. For all of the whining about the previous tariffs from the first Trump term, or the TCJA, neither were repealed when democrats had the opportunity, although there were small adjustments. That should really tell you all that you need to know. It turns out that manufacturing jobs are better for supporting a family than service jobs, hollowing out our economy so there are far less good paying manufacturing jobs turned out to be a huge mistake, originally pushed by CFR, Cato, Brookings, etc. so the only people who are doing well are the rich, because the benefits of global trade accrue almost exclusively to them (although many CPI advocates will make the argument that you’re better off now because you can own a nice cell phone even though you can’t own a house) The public BSing goes the other way too of course. Imagine getting worked up over classified stuff on a private email server and then letting your cabinet use signal and Gmail.

wesapien 2y ago
https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1907879785151475801 https://x.com/_PeterRyan/status/1907879785151475801 Protectionism is like child rearing. You're trying to protect the young (industry) so they survive to adulthood. The tarrifs are too broad. How the hell are you going to sell goods from HCOL area to the rest of the less affluent world? Even if some countries could afford it, how are you going to get goods across burned bridges?
lovich 2y ago
> It turns out that manufacturing jobs are better for supporting a family than service jobs, Why? I hear this implied, or outright said in your case, frequently with no backing for it. It seems like a truism.
- jerkstate 2y ago

rtkwe 2y ago

Even if we did keep the tariffs long enough to reshore there's so many problems: 1) The resulting industries are only viable under the tariff regime so we have to keep it forever or until the production costs somehow equalize. 2) Who's going to work all these new jobs with the plan of reducing immigration drastically or practically eliminating it? We're only at 4.1% unemployment today. Are we supposed to baby boom our way to enough workers? While costs are jacked through the roof due to the tariffs?

WeylandYutani 2y ago

"incentive to move manufacturing back to the US" Only for the internal market. America will never again manufacture steel or cars for the rest of the world. The days of America being the factory of the world (which really only lasted a few decades) are forever gone.