2 ms·

I would imagine the incentives being aligned (SX can’t make full economic and cultural Starship ROI if there is a planetsized wall of debris they can’t fly thro

by sneak 2y ago

I would imagine the incentives being aligned (SX can’t make full economic and cultural Starship ROI if there is a planetsized wall of debris they can’t fly through) means that there will be multiple independent overlapping checks both private and government for each launch mission to ensure that it doesn’t become worse. SpaceX stands to lose just as much as the rest of us if they fuck this up, possibly more.

threeseed 2y ago
> SpaceX stands to lose just as much as the rest of us if they fuck this up, possibly more No it will go bankrupt and be forgotten. While we leave future generations with a problem that may not be economically or technically solvable and ruin space for ever.
bell-cot 2y ago
I'd bet there is a very wide gray zone between the current situation, and a "planetsized wall of debris", which badly damaged SpaceX's bottom line. And, in much of that gray zone, SpaceX could be the very profitable leader in a booming market for launching all the replacement satellites, heavier collision-"resistant" satellites, and debris-sweeping satellites.
- sneak 2y ago
  This is a good point, but I thought the fundamental idea of Kessler syndrome is a cascade trigger point which rapidly and inevitably becomes the point of no return at which the effects become inescapable.
  - bell-cot 2y ago
    Guess: Doom-preaching scientists often have vested interests in preserving very expensive, hard-to-replace satellites - say, Hubble. Journalists know that "more doom" => "more clicks". Nationalists and military folks love to talk smack about other nations' debris-spreading accidents and ASAT activities. And the whole canon and mindset of Kessler-ology was established before SpaceX made launch (of replacement satellites) anywhere near so quick and cheap as it would be now.
mikepurvis 2y ago
Unsure if facetious, but geostationary is a single orbit, so the crowding is end to end. The space outside of that one orbit is infinite and will never be a “wall”.
myself248 2y ago
As long as there's enough time lag between making money and destroying the planet, there's no disincentive. The mechanism you describe, logically, should've prevented tetraethyl lead in gasoline.

by sneak 2y ago

threeseed 2y ago

> SpaceX stands to lose just as much as the rest of us if they fuck this up, possibly more No it will go bankrupt and be forgotten. While we leave future generations with a problem that may not be economically or technically solvable and ruin space for ever.

bell-cot 2y ago

I'd bet there is a very wide gray zone between the current situation, and a "planetsized wall of debris", which badly damaged SpaceX's bottom line. And, in much of that gray zone, SpaceX could be the very profitable leader in a booming market for launching all the replacement satellites, heavier collision-"resistant" satellites, and debris-sweeping satellites.

sneak 2y ago
This is a good point, but I thought the fundamental idea of Kessler syndrome is a cascade trigger point which rapidly and inevitably becomes the point of no return at which the effects become inescapable.
- bell-cot 2y ago
  Guess: Doom-preaching scientists often have vested interests in preserving very expensive, hard-to-replace satellites - say, Hubble. Journalists know that "more doom" => "more clicks". Nationalists and military folks love to talk smack about other nations' debris-spreading accidents and ASAT activities. And the whole canon and mindset of Kessler-ology was established before SpaceX made launch (of replacement satellites) anywhere near so quick and cheap as it would be now.

mikepurvis 2y ago

Unsure if facetious, but geostationary is a single orbit, so the crowding is end to end. The space outside of that one orbit is infinite and will never be a “wall”.

myself248 2y ago

As long as there's enough time lag between making money and destroying the planet, there's no disincentive. The mechanism you describe, logically, should've prevented tetraethyl lead in gasoline.