8 ms·

Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices

21 points by vyrotek 2y ago

rayiner 2y ago
This is the most important investment in our economic future in a generation. I remember discussing with a Juniper guy back in 2008 or so about how Huawei would just rip off their designs. Back then it was conventional wisdom that China could just copy, not build. Now, Huawei can make state of the art routers with home grown chips. Turns out all the Reaganites got sucked into just handing China our economy. It’s not sustainable. I don’t want my kids having to learn Chinese and become immigrants (as if China would even allow that) because we shipped the last shreds of our economy over there.
- bigyabai 2y ago
  > Turns out all the Reaganites got sucked into just handing China our economy. It’s not sustainable. You're looking at this from a pretty jingoist perspective. Take it from another angle - what was Intel doing in the 60s and 70s that China couldn't copy in some guy's garage? What are American businesses exporting today that China has to copy to take for themselves? Why is globalism such a bad idea, why can't other countries copy our cheap cashgrabs? You can't protect American businesses if they can't compete on their own merits. You can't demand that people respect your judgement if you reject the institutions of international justice. This is the starting gun into the foot of global trade that will leave America limping to the finish line.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - csense 2y ago
    > Why is globalism such a bad idea Having grown up in the Rust Belt, it's a bit baffling to me that there are intelligent people out there who don't understand why it's a bad idea. It's a race to the bottom. The jobs all go to countries where people are paid almost nothing to work 90-hour workweeks, safety and environmental concerns are not existent, and they have totalitarian political systems where anybody who complains about any of the above will be shot. Said other countries have stronger economies which lifts their geopolitical influence and military power. You definitely don't want to give that to governments with those kinds of terrible value systems. Part of our society's narrative is that anyone can join the middle class: "If you just work hard, you can get a good job, support a family and live a nice lifestyle." The companies formerly supporting that narrative moved their operations out of our country; those opportunities were never replaced. A narrative that binds our society together -- a fundamental part of the American soul -- is getting destroyed. Which is a big factor causing the terrible current political climate. From the 1990's to today, a lot of Rust Belt places went from union blue to purple and then turned deep red in an instant in 2016 because somebody was finally acknowledging the problem.
    - bigyabai 2y ago
      Yes, it's a race to the bottom. But politicians aren't demanding that we should accept slave labor to make our Nike shoes - Nike does that. Tariffs won't change that either, they simply put a price on dealing with "undesirable" labor that Americans wouldn't tolerate anyways. That's how free market economics work on the global stage, I don't think anything has changed in that regard in the past 50 years. I guess I'm disenfranchised with the entire process, having grown up near Detroit. You won't bring these jobs back from Mexico, you won't onshore EV production from the grasp of China. GM said it, Tesla said it, Apple said it, and now you're listening to me repeat it. Americans can get mad at Europe or Denmark or Canada if it makes them feel better, but it's sure as shit not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML or ARM IP. And we're fucked either way if we sit around waiting for Intel to "innovate" their way ahead. America can't lead the free world with a bum leg, it doesn't matter how icky China's politics are.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML machinery That ASML machinery in EUV and DUV is entirely manufactured in SoCal - ASML was the the commercialization partner in LLNL's Cymer Inc. > or ARM IP Designed in Austin Texas - right by Barton Creek - or in Bangalore next door to Samsung and Nvidia, and across the street from Google.
        bigyabai 2y ago
        I'm assuming that America isn't a kleptocracy, which I will admit is an unfair benefit of the doubt.
        alephnerd 2y ago
        This tariff was a change that was inevitable irrespective of party. I have qualms with it's messaging and rollout, but it's something that both parties were increasingly aligning towards. Anyhow, what's done is done, and now it's cheaper to purchase intermediate parts like PLCs from Germany (20% overall tariff) or Japan (24% overall tariff) than it is from China (54% overall tariff) or an iPhone assembled in Mexico (NAFTA has been exempted from these tariffs thanks to Congress) or a Nike shoe assembled in Philippines (17% overall tariff) than in Vietnam (49% overall tariff). Those jobs weren't coming back to the US, and if they were they would be anyhow be automated, but at least we can reduce some dependency on China, and give breathing room to either us or our allies to build some capacity. > Kleptocracy Not yet using the formal definition, but absolutely autarkic now like before the 1990s
  - rayiner 2y ago
    > You can't protect American businesses if they can't compete on their own merits. The problem is that “free trade” math defines lowered standards as “comparative advantage.” So any first world country that maintains first world standards is automatically unable to “compete in their own merits.” Globalism creates a race to the bottom.
    - bigyabai 2y ago
      The problem is that you're assuming the entire world agrees with your definition of "first world standards". As we have seen, not even American businesses give much of a shit about slave labor if it means we get higher margins on wholesale goods. If America cut ties entirely with China, then we could take a moral stand. But we haven't done that, because we are utterly dependent on China even when they execute foreign nationals and steal American IP wholecloth.
      - rayiner 2y ago
        Maybe I wasn’t clear. My anecdote wasn’t about Chinese IP theft, but rather American arrogance. We thought the Chinese weren’t as smart as us and were just cheap labor, but that was wrong. I don’t want to take a stand against or cut ties with China. I want America to be more like China, and rebuild our industrial capacity.
    - s1artibartfast 2y ago
      Trade deficits are a huge advantage for the buyer. Who wants to spend 12 hours a day doing hard labor when you can pay someone peanuts to do it? Who do you you think benefits: The person spending the peanuts or the person working 12 hours a day? Trade deficits are not a problem, but a huge advantage. Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds.
      - rayiner 2y ago
        > Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds. But we do.
- energy123 2y ago
  Putting tariffs on rivals that subsidize local industries has both a national security and economic (anti-dumping) justification. Putting blanket tariffs on close allies has no justification and it harms the US in every respect, economic and security, short and long term.
  - rayiner 2y ago
    Why limit it to national security or anti-dumping? Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries or lax environmental laws out of the equation.
    - Marsymars 2y ago
      > Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries But why? Monaco has 39k people and a GDP per capita of $240k. Would they be better off if they instituted auto tariffs so that the cheapest option for selling cars to Monégasques was to build the world's least efficient auto factory? On the world stage, the US is basically a big version of Monaco.
      - rayiner 2y ago
        Monaco’s economy is fake, so I hope the U.S. isn’t a big version of Monaco.
        Marsymars 2y ago
        I don't think you can just hand-wave away high value services that other parties are willing to pay for as being "fake".
    - mahogany 2y ago
      > Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries or lax environmental laws out of the equation. Define "cheap labor". Is any labor that is cheaper than American labor bad? If not, how are the tariffs differentiating between "bad" cheap labor and "good" cheap labor?
- geenkeuse 2y ago
  [dead]
Aurornis 2y ago
In case anyone hasn't seen it yet, the big chart the administration showed with "tariffs charged to the US" was not real. They used trade deficit numbers in the "tariffs charged to the US column". The numbers in that column are not actually tariffs charged to the US. The entire "reciprocal tariff" claim was based on a big lie. Trump also repeated claims that the US trade deficit with Canada was "close to $200 billion" when the official trade deficit is significantly less.
- rayiner 2y ago
  Why is there a trade deficit with a country if there aren’t trade barriers or other unfairness, such as China’s weaker labor laws and environmental laws? Mathematically, “free trade” treats those things as a “comparative advantage” but we don’t have to pretend that reflects reality. The formula simply reflects the premise that, in a fair system, trade deficits would average out to zero. It also escalates the tariffs as the trade deficit goes up, and reduces them as the other country imports more of our goods. It’s an elegant formula.
  - maxerickson 2y ago
    With Canada, there's a deficit because they are willing to do things like send oil in exchange for promises, and then they use the promises to do things like buy capital that is located in America. I guess you can decide that's unfair.
  - steveBK123 2y ago
    Because it's not a barter economy and you would not naturally have equal dollar quantities of goods to buy from and sell to each trading partner individually. One country may be on the other side of the world, far poorer and mostly exporting say minerals or basic textile goods where their cheap labor gives them an advantage. What goods/services are they going to buy from the US that they cannot get from more local trading partners cheaper? They can import grains more cheaply from nearby neighbors. Southeast Asia is not going to start buying Teslas & Fods, they are driving around in Suzukis and whatever China makes. You spend $5/week at your baker, does your baker buy $5/week of software from you?
hayst4ck 2y ago
These tariffs are a soft blockade carried out as part of a decapitation strike[1] against America. Imagine you are Russia, and you want to stop American support of Ukraine or that you are China and you want to annex Taiwan. You can't enact a blockade or take military action against America yourself, but you can attempt to destroy us from within by compromising people in positions of power. Oligarchs have more in common with each other than with their countrymen. This administration lies with the truth. It is true that there are trade deficits harmful to America and that not being able to produce our own masks is a national emergency, but enacting a policy like this is insanity. Those trade deficits are born out of financialization[2] which is a result of the exorbitant privilege[3] of managing the reserve currency. I can't imagine anyone who writes software intuitively supporting this. Radical changes in policy/code break things. Maybe you do it with something vestigial, but would you do something like this to your databases? The economy, the beating heart of the country, is being put at risk. [1]Timothy Snyder -- Decapitation strike: https://archive.is/1xkxK https://archive.is/1xkxK [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege
- rayiner 2y ago
  It takes a truly wild level of being so mad at Trump that it makes you go full Reagan and extol the virtues of free trade and perpetual war to maintain the reserve currency.
  - hayst4ck 2y ago
    Accusing someone of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) is a rhetorical technique to pathologize dissent -- to call dissent a sickness, an irrationality. You did all but use the term. You're presupposing my anger at disastrous policy decisions as irrational to ignore addressing the critique directly. You're putting words in my mouth about Reagan, free trade, or perpetual war. I don't support "free" trade or "free" markets. I believe regulation is necessary, regulation, meaning to control the speed or flow of. Trade or Market's can't be free, only people can be free, and I believe in regulating markets and trade to promote freedom for people. I don't support war, but I also don't support neutrality. Justice requires taking a side in conflicts. Without solidarity, taking a side in disputes and being willing to sacrifice for the benefit of others, justice cannot prevail. You know you are literally supporting the policy of someone who is threatening Greenland, Canada, and Panama while also arguing against perpetual war right? Smashing trade relations is a prelude to performing actions our trading partners would disapprove of.
suraci 2y ago
bravo, i like the current admin of the US some say trump is the cause of the current state of the United States, well, in fact, trump is the result of the current state of the United States
suraci 2y ago
China can subsidize 10-20% tariffs for a few months. They CANNOT subsidize a 54% tariffs. This will have COLOSSAL impacts on China. They can't fix domestic real estate, subsidize industries, build their military, fund the Belt & Road, etc, etc with this level of tariffs from their largest customer.
- cycrutchfield 2y ago
  Cool. What about our economy? Are my eggs getting cheaper yet?
- lawn 2y ago
  The rest of the world will keep buying cheap stuff from China in increasing quantities. Meanwhile things just got really expensive for people (and businesses) in the US as so much stuff is made in China. Yes, it will hurt China. But it will hurt the US much more.
  - p2detar 2y ago
    I think so too. They have been expanding pretty much everywhere. From Eastern Europe through South America and Africa. In the last COP climate gathering China gave a signal that they would take the leadership and also get on the "green tech" market i.e. export batteries, EVs, solar panels. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rx2drd8x8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rx2drd8x8o

21 points by vyrotek 2y ago

This is the most important investment in our economic future in a generation. I remember discussing with a Juniper guy back in 2008 or so about how Huawei would just rip off their designs. Back then it was conventional wisdom that China could just copy, not build. Now, Huawei can make state of the art routers with home grown chips. Turns out all the Reaganites got sucked into just handing China our economy. It’s not sustainable. I don’t want my kids having to learn Chinese and become immigrants (as if China would even allow that) because we shipped the last shreds of our economy over there.

bigyabai 2y ago
> Turns out all the Reaganites got sucked into just handing China our economy. It’s not sustainable. You're looking at this from a pretty jingoist perspective. Take it from another angle - what was Intel doing in the 60s and 70s that China couldn't copy in some guy's garage? What are American businesses exporting today that China has to copy to take for themselves? Why is globalism such a bad idea, why can't other countries copy our cheap cashgrabs? You can't protect American businesses if they can't compete on their own merits. You can't demand that people respect your judgement if you reject the institutions of international justice. This is the starting gun into the foot of global trade that will leave America limping to the finish line.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- csense 2y ago
  > Why is globalism such a bad idea Having grown up in the Rust Belt, it's a bit baffling to me that there are intelligent people out there who don't understand why it's a bad idea. It's a race to the bottom. The jobs all go to countries where people are paid almost nothing to work 90-hour workweeks, safety and environmental concerns are not existent, and they have totalitarian political systems where anybody who complains about any of the above will be shot. Said other countries have stronger economies which lifts their geopolitical influence and military power. You definitely don't want to give that to governments with those kinds of terrible value systems. Part of our society's narrative is that anyone can join the middle class: "If you just work hard, you can get a good job, support a family and live a nice lifestyle." The companies formerly supporting that narrative moved their operations out of our country; those opportunities were never replaced. A narrative that binds our society together -- a fundamental part of the American soul -- is getting destroyed. Which is a big factor causing the terrible current political climate. From the 1990's to today, a lot of Rust Belt places went from union blue to purple and then turned deep red in an instant in 2016 because somebody was finally acknowledging the problem.
  - bigyabai 2y ago
    Yes, it's a race to the bottom. But politicians aren't demanding that we should accept slave labor to make our Nike shoes - Nike does that. Tariffs won't change that either, they simply put a price on dealing with "undesirable" labor that Americans wouldn't tolerate anyways. That's how free market economics work on the global stage, I don't think anything has changed in that regard in the past 50 years. I guess I'm disenfranchised with the entire process, having grown up near Detroit. You won't bring these jobs back from Mexico, you won't onshore EV production from the grasp of China. GM said it, Tesla said it, Apple said it, and now you're listening to me repeat it. Americans can get mad at Europe or Denmark or Canada if it makes them feel better, but it's sure as shit not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML or ARM IP. And we're fucked either way if we sit around waiting for Intel to "innovate" their way ahead. America can't lead the free world with a bum leg, it doesn't matter how icky China's politics are.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML machinery That ASML machinery in EUV and DUV is entirely manufactured in SoCal - ASML was the the commercialization partner in LLNL's Cymer Inc. > or ARM IP Designed in Austin Texas - right by Barton Creek - or in Bangalore next door to Samsung and Nvidia, and across the street from Google.
      - bigyabai 2y ago
        I'm assuming that America isn't a kleptocracy, which I will admit is an unfair benefit of the doubt.
        alephnerd 2y ago
        This tariff was a change that was inevitable irrespective of party. I have qualms with it's messaging and rollout, but it's something that both parties were increasingly aligning towards. Anyhow, what's done is done, and now it's cheaper to purchase intermediate parts like PLCs from Germany (20% overall tariff) or Japan (24% overall tariff) than it is from China (54% overall tariff) or an iPhone assembled in Mexico (NAFTA has been exempted from these tariffs thanks to Congress) or a Nike shoe assembled in Philippines (17% overall tariff) than in Vietnam (49% overall tariff). Those jobs weren't coming back to the US, and if they were they would be anyhow be automated, but at least we can reduce some dependency on China, and give breathing room to either us or our allies to build some capacity. > Kleptocracy Not yet using the formal definition, but absolutely autarkic now like before the 1990s
- rayiner 2y ago
  > You can't protect American businesses if they can't compete on their own merits. The problem is that “free trade” math defines lowered standards as “comparative advantage.” So any first world country that maintains first world standards is automatically unable to “compete in their own merits.” Globalism creates a race to the bottom.
  - bigyabai 2y ago
    The problem is that you're assuming the entire world agrees with your definition of "first world standards". As we have seen, not even American businesses give much of a shit about slave labor if it means we get higher margins on wholesale goods. If America cut ties entirely with China, then we could take a moral stand. But we haven't done that, because we are utterly dependent on China even when they execute foreign nationals and steal American IP wholecloth.
    - rayiner 2y ago
      Maybe I wasn’t clear. My anecdote wasn’t about Chinese IP theft, but rather American arrogance. We thought the Chinese weren’t as smart as us and were just cheap labor, but that was wrong. I don’t want to take a stand against or cut ties with China. I want America to be more like China, and rebuild our industrial capacity.
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    Trade deficits are a huge advantage for the buyer. Who wants to spend 12 hours a day doing hard labor when you can pay someone peanuts to do it? Who do you you think benefits: The person spending the peanuts or the person working 12 hours a day? Trade deficits are not a problem, but a huge advantage. Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds.
    - rayiner 2y ago
      > Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds. But we do.
energy123 2y ago
Putting tariffs on rivals that subsidize local industries has both a national security and economic (anti-dumping) justification. Putting blanket tariffs on close allies has no justification and it harms the US in every respect, economic and security, short and long term.
- rayiner 2y ago
  Why limit it to national security or anti-dumping? Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries or lax environmental laws out of the equation.
  - Marsymars 2y ago
    > Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries But why? Monaco has 39k people and a GDP per capita of $240k. Would they be better off if they instituted auto tariffs so that the cheapest option for selling cars to Monégasques was to build the world's least efficient auto factory? On the world stage, the US is basically a big version of Monaco.
    - rayiner 2y ago
      Monaco’s economy is fake, so I hope the U.S. isn’t a big version of Monaco.
      - Marsymars 2y ago
        I don't think you can just hand-wave away high value services that other parties are willing to pay for as being "fake".
  - mahogany 2y ago
    > Tariffs should be expansive enough to take things like cheap labor in foreign countries or lax environmental laws out of the equation. Define "cheap labor". Is any labor that is cheaper than American labor bad? If not, how are the tariffs differentiating between "bad" cheap labor and "good" cheap labor?
geenkeuse 2y ago
[dead]

Aurornis 2y ago

In case anyone hasn't seen it yet, the big chart the administration showed with "tariffs charged to the US" was not real. They used trade deficit numbers in the "tariffs charged to the US column". The numbers in that column are not actually tariffs charged to the US. The entire "reciprocal tariff" claim was based on a big lie. Trump also repeated claims that the US trade deficit with Canada was "close to $200 billion" when the official trade deficit is significantly less.

rayiner 2y ago
Why is there a trade deficit with a country if there aren’t trade barriers or other unfairness, such as China’s weaker labor laws and environmental laws? Mathematically, “free trade” treats those things as a “comparative advantage” but we don’t have to pretend that reflects reality. The formula simply reflects the premise that, in a fair system, trade deficits would average out to zero. It also escalates the tariffs as the trade deficit goes up, and reduces them as the other country imports more of our goods. It’s an elegant formula.
- maxerickson 2y ago
  With Canada, there's a deficit because they are willing to do things like send oil in exchange for promises, and then they use the promises to do things like buy capital that is located in America. I guess you can decide that's unfair.
- steveBK123 2y ago
  Because it's not a barter economy and you would not naturally have equal dollar quantities of goods to buy from and sell to each trading partner individually. One country may be on the other side of the world, far poorer and mostly exporting say minerals or basic textile goods where their cheap labor gives them an advantage. What goods/services are they going to buy from the US that they cannot get from more local trading partners cheaper? They can import grains more cheaply from nearby neighbors. Southeast Asia is not going to start buying Teslas & Fods, they are driving around in Suzukis and whatever China makes. You spend $5/week at your baker, does your baker buy $5/week of software from you?

hayst4ck 2y ago

These tariffs are a soft blockade carried out as part of a decapitation strike[1] against America. Imagine you are Russia, and you want to stop American support of Ukraine or that you are China and you want to annex Taiwan. You can't enact a blockade or take military action against America yourself, but you can attempt to destroy us from within by compromising people in positions of power. Oligarchs have more in common with each other than with their countrymen. This administration lies with the truth. It is true that there are trade deficits harmful to America and that not being able to produce our own masks is a national emergency, but enacting a policy like this is insanity. Those trade deficits are born out of financialization[2] which is a result of the exorbitant privilege[3] of managing the reserve currency. I can't imagine anyone who writes software intuitively supporting this. Radical changes in policy/code break things. Maybe you do it with something vestigial, but would you do something like this to your databases? The economy, the beating heart of the country, is being put at risk. [1]Timothy Snyder -- Decapitation strike: https://archive.is/1xkxK https://archive.is/1xkxK [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

rayiner 2y ago
It takes a truly wild level of being so mad at Trump that it makes you go full Reagan and extol the virtues of free trade and perpetual war to maintain the reserve currency.
- hayst4ck 2y ago
  Accusing someone of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) is a rhetorical technique to pathologize dissent -- to call dissent a sickness, an irrationality. You did all but use the term. You're presupposing my anger at disastrous policy decisions as irrational to ignore addressing the critique directly. You're putting words in my mouth about Reagan, free trade, or perpetual war. I don't support "free" trade or "free" markets. I believe regulation is necessary, regulation, meaning to control the speed or flow of. Trade or Market's can't be free, only people can be free, and I believe in regulating markets and trade to promote freedom for people. I don't support war, but I also don't support neutrality. Justice requires taking a side in conflicts. Without solidarity, taking a side in disputes and being willing to sacrifice for the benefit of others, justice cannot prevail. You know you are literally supporting the policy of someone who is threatening Greenland, Canada, and Panama while also arguing against perpetual war right? Smashing trade relations is a prelude to performing actions our trading partners would disapprove of.

suraci 2y ago

bravo, i like the current admin of the US some say trump is the cause of the current state of the United States, well, in fact, trump is the result of the current state of the United States

suraci 2y ago

China can subsidize 10-20% tariffs for a few months. They CANNOT subsidize a 54% tariffs. This will have COLOSSAL impacts on China. They can't fix domestic real estate, subsidize industries, build their military, fund the Belt & Road, etc, etc with this level of tariffs from their largest customer.

cycrutchfield 2y ago
Cool. What about our economy? Are my eggs getting cheaper yet?
lawn 2y ago
The rest of the world will keep buying cheap stuff from China in increasing quantities. Meanwhile things just got really expensive for people (and businesses) in the US as so much stuff is made in China. Yes, it will hurt China. But it will hurt the US much more.
- p2detar 2y ago
  I think so too. They have been expanding pretty much everywhere. From Eastern Europe through South America and Africa. In the last COP climate gathering China gave a signal that they would take the leadership and also get on the "green tech" market i.e. export batteries, EVs, solar panels. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rx2drd8x8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rx2drd8x8o