4 ms·

A demanding work culture could be undermining efforts to raise birth rates

8 points by ivewonyoung 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Study: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19485565.2024.2... | https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850 https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850
delichon 2y ago
Work culture is less demanding now than 50, 100 years ago when fertility was higher. The ROI from babies is much lower now though. We no longer depend on them as much for labor, defense, etc. The result may be population shrinkage until or if the ROI rises sufficiently.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  How Working-Class Life Is Killing Americans, in Charts - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/06/opinion/working-class-death-rate.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/06/opinion/worki... | https://archive.today/Qhjyn https://archive.today/Qhjyn - March 6th, 2020 Agree with the rest of your points, children are luxury goods in the current macro.
  - delichon 2y ago
    I take that opinion away from watching my dad work incredibly hard as I grew up, and listening to him tell stories about what a slacker he was compared to my grandfather. My grandfather worked continuously for the survival of his eight kids. My father worked from the fear of another depression like the one he grew up in. He had four kids. In comparison I lounge about all day and tickle the keyboard a little when I feel like it. I have no kids. I can't claim that my work is more demanding with a straight face. For my own family that climbed out of poverty into the middle class in the last three generations, work demand has been inverse to fertility.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      I am aggressively data driven, and ignore my gut whenever possible. Anecdotes? Not data. My minima observations? Not data. In God We Trust, all others must bring data. Like IFR flight as a pilot, you must ignore your senses and rely on the instruments, because your senses will lie to you about orientation. Remember, yours and my lived experiences are just one of billions.
      - delichon 2y ago
        I'm a coder, I solve little problems all day. My work would be enormously harder if I didn't use my gut to test results. I doubt I could make a living doing that. I frequently get bad results from doing statistics on large data sets, and only discover it when my gut asks me why it looks funny. Like this one. We don't need a happy medium between Mr. Gut and Mr. Data, we need to merge them. For another data check: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility In my own experience lower income has been associated with harder work. If a stat says that modern knowledge work is more demanding than subsistence farming, I have to question it.
- watwut 2y ago
  50 years ago was 1975 ... are you sure average worker worked all that much more? Plus, they did not depended on babies for labor and defense.
  - delichon 2y ago
    My grandfather was born in 1885, when they did depend on babies for labor in rural Lithuania. He immigrated to Chicago before WWI where his children contributed to the family pot as soon as they were able. My father was born last, in 1929, inculcated into that culture, and very much put me and my brothers to work. I was 13 in 1975 and had been working on construction sites for at least 4 years. It was illegal then too but much more common. Dad would work 7 days a week, and his family time was bringing the kids on the weekend to do the knucklehead stuff. These were much more common stories a few generations ago.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

8 points by ivewonyoung 2y ago

Study: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19485565.2024.2... | https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850 https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2024.2422850

delichon 2y ago

Work culture is less demanding now than 50, 100 years ago when fertility was higher. The ROI from babies is much lower now though. We no longer depend on them as much for labor, defense, etc. The result may be population shrinkage until or if the ROI rises sufficiently.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
How Working-Class Life Is Killing Americans, in Charts - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/06/opinion/working-class-death-rate.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/06/opinion/worki... | https://archive.today/Qhjyn https://archive.today/Qhjyn - March 6th, 2020 Agree with the rest of your points, children are luxury goods in the current macro.
- delichon 2y ago
  I take that opinion away from watching my dad work incredibly hard as I grew up, and listening to him tell stories about what a slacker he was compared to my grandfather. My grandfather worked continuously for the survival of his eight kids. My father worked from the fear of another depression like the one he grew up in. He had four kids. In comparison I lounge about all day and tickle the keyboard a little when I feel like it. I have no kids. I can't claim that my work is more demanding with a straight face. For my own family that climbed out of poverty into the middle class in the last three generations, work demand has been inverse to fertility.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I am aggressively data driven, and ignore my gut whenever possible. Anecdotes? Not data. My minima observations? Not data. In God We Trust, all others must bring data. Like IFR flight as a pilot, you must ignore your senses and rely on the instruments, because your senses will lie to you about orientation. Remember, yours and my lived experiences are just one of billions.
    - delichon 2y ago
      I'm a coder, I solve little problems all day. My work would be enormously harder if I didn't use my gut to test results. I doubt I could make a living doing that. I frequently get bad results from doing statistics on large data sets, and only discover it when my gut asks me why it looks funny. Like this one. We don't need a happy medium between Mr. Gut and Mr. Data, we need to merge them. For another data check: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility In my own experience lower income has been associated with harder work. If a stat says that modern knowledge work is more demanding than subsistence farming, I have to question it.
watwut 2y ago
50 years ago was 1975 ... are you sure average worker worked all that much more? Plus, they did not depended on babies for labor and defense.
- delichon 2y ago
  My grandfather was born in 1885, when they did depend on babies for labor in rural Lithuania. He immigrated to Chicago before WWI where his children contributed to the family pot as soon as they were able. My father was born last, in 1929, inculcated into that culture, and very much put me and my brothers to work. I was 13 in 1975 and had been working on construction sites for at least 4 years. It was illegal then too but much more common. Dad would work 7 days a week, and his family time was bringing the kids on the weekend to do the knucklehead stuff. These were much more common stories a few generations ago.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]