3 ms·
Most of it does? Just about anything talking about a century from now or longer? In general, SF overestimates the short term change but dramatically underestim
by yyyk 2y ago
Most of it does? Just about anything talking about a century from now or longer?
In general, SF overestimates the short term change but dramatically underestimates the long term change.
- bluGill 2y agoSometimes. A lot of SF assumes FTL travel, which we have no reason to think will ever be possible (and even less possible when you realize they also are assuming to time dilation effects).
- agumonkey 2y agoIIRC Alain Dalmasio talks about this a lot and tried to readjust how his SF anticipates changes.
- bee_rider 2y agoYeah. I think it is because most SF is not actually about predicting the future, but analyzing modern society. So, they take modern society and make one or two big changes that allow the author to discuss their thing. If they correctly account for long term change, especially after introducing their big twist, then they won’t have a society that reflects modern society, it will just be totally alien.
- notahacker 2y agoI think it mostly estimates the wrong changes. Sci fi from the first half of the twentieth century overshot in its predictions of universal flying cars and interstellar travel, but generally missed the internet or the idea that women would be in any way involved in the science. And it's amazing just how many plots up until the end of the last century assume mobile communication isn't routine