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A lot of the criticism around "vibe" coding / engineering / etc. focus on the current state - which is fair, but things are moving so fast. Just three years ago

A lot of the criticism around "vibe" coding / engineering / etc. focus on the current state - which is fair, but things are moving so fast. Just three years ago, it wasn't even a thing. Now you have people pumping out simple products by just feeding the models prompts. Where will we be in 5-10 years (or more?) if this progress keeps up.

skwee357 2y ago
I don’t think this is how it works. By the same logic, since cars were invented a hundred years ago (give or take), by today we should have flying cars at the speed of light, and yet we don’t. AI development will plateau. It’s not like it *must* improve with each iteration.
hbsbsbsndk 2y ago
I don't think you're going to see 10 years of linear progress increasing the complexity of generated code, the same as you're not going to see a steady march towards factually correct LLM answers. We've had a step improvement towards producing certain types of text output, and people are racing to throw more resources at it for diminishing returns. Producing code has got to be the best case scenario for LLMs because there's a lot of boilerplate and examples of simple applications, and people aren't out here criticizing the structure of a TODO list app.
- skybrian 2y ago
  There are often diminishing returns to naive scaling, but nobody knows whether we’re at the point of diminishing returns for machine learning research, broadly defined. Who knows what new tricks will be discovered? We don’t have any physical limits to guide us.
graemep 2y ago
Can you suggest some examples? That is a big "if".
ilikecakeandpie 2y ago
Why would I need a developer when I can build everything for my app WYSIWYG in Visual Studio? Why would I need someone who specializes in databases when I can just build it in Access? Why can't we just build our site in squarespace and not have any resources at all? There's always something that is supposed to come around and replace engineers but it never comes to fruition. These attempts are good to build shallow products and MVPs. For "vibe" coding, the product will not be serviceable if the person who implements it does not understand what the code is doing. This is the equivalent of rote learning and expecting the implementer to be an expert
- babyent 2y ago
  The irony being all these people making these things are rote learning experts
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
lelanthran 2y ago
We've had low code, no code stuff for a long time, and there are people employed full time to use those systems. Other than excel, end users aren't great at creating their own solutions
- graetzer 2y ago
  This is so true, I think a lot of the hype conveniently leaves out the fact that there are many low- or no-code solutions which are quite succesful in their niches (like complex form builders forgoverment tax forms, insurance etc).
fcantournet 2y ago
Bro... you're vibing.
- throwaway314155 2y ago
  Big vibes on this one.

skwee357 2y ago

I don’t think this is how it works. By the same logic, since cars were invented a hundred years ago (give or take), by today we should have flying cars at the speed of light, and yet we don’t. AI development will plateau. It’s not like it *must* improve with each iteration.

hbsbsbsndk 2y ago

I don't think you're going to see 10 years of linear progress increasing the complexity of generated code, the same as you're not going to see a steady march towards factually correct LLM answers. We've had a step improvement towards producing certain types of text output, and people are racing to throw more resources at it for diminishing returns. Producing code has got to be the best case scenario for LLMs because there's a lot of boilerplate and examples of simple applications, and people aren't out here criticizing the structure of a TODO list app.

skybrian 2y ago
There are often diminishing returns to naive scaling, but nobody knows whether we’re at the point of diminishing returns for machine learning research, broadly defined. Who knows what new tricks will be discovered? We don’t have any physical limits to guide us.

graemep 2y ago

Can you suggest some examples? That is a big "if".

ilikecakeandpie 2y ago

Why would I need a developer when I can build everything for my app WYSIWYG in Visual Studio? Why would I need someone who specializes in databases when I can just build it in Access? Why can't we just build our site in squarespace and not have any resources at all? There's always something that is supposed to come around and replace engineers but it never comes to fruition. These attempts are good to build shallow products and MVPs. For "vibe" coding, the product will not be serviceable if the person who implements it does not understand what the code is doing. This is the equivalent of rote learning and expecting the implementer to be an expert

babyent 2y ago
The irony being all these people making these things are rote learning experts
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

lelanthran 2y ago

We've had low code, no code stuff for a long time, and there are people employed full time to use those systems. Other than excel, end users aren't great at creating their own solutions

graetzer 2y ago
This is so true, I think a lot of the hype conveniently leaves out the fact that there are many low- or no-code solutions which are quite succesful in their niches (like complex form builders forgoverment tax forms, insurance etc).

fcantournet 2y ago

Bro... you're vibing.

throwaway314155 2y ago
Big vibes on this one.