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I have been reading Moore's Law is dead articles for the last 30 years. You sort of become immune to the "sky is falling" narrative after a while. Tech leader

I have been reading Moore's Law is dead articles for the last 30 years. You sort of become immune to the "sky is falling" narrative after a while. Tech leaders love this narrative: 2005: Intel CEO https://hothardware.com/news/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore https://hothardware.com/news/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-... 2009: Sandisk CEO https://archive.nytimes.com/bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/22/counting-down-to-the-end-of-moores-law/ https://archive.nytimes.com/bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/2... 2010: NVIDIA VP https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2010-05-03-nvidia-vp-says-moores-law-is-dead.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2010-05-03-nvidia-vp-says-moo... 2016: Intel CEO https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/technology/moores-law-running-out-of-room-tech-looks-for-a-successor.html https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/05/technology/moores-law-run... 2017: NVIDIA CEO https://www.extremetech.com/cars/256558-nvidias-ceo-declares-moores-law-dead https://www.extremetech.com/cars/256558-nvidias-ceo-declares... 2019: NVIDIA CEO https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/moores-law-is-dead-nvidias-ceo-jensen-huang-says-at-ces-2019/ https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/moores-law-is-dead-nvidi... 2022: NVIDIA CEO https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-graphic-card-prices-moores-law-51663778838 https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-graphic-card-prices-... The only time this felt true was on the desktop/Windows/Linux for CPUs when Intel had an uncontested monopoly from 2009 - 2016: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CPU-performance-retrospective.mt-full-range.png https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CPU-p... But it was broken by AMD's Ryzen architecture on one side and Apple's M series on the other.

Tostino 2y ago
Regardless of what you feel, it is long dead.
- bhouston 2y ago
  I look at these benchmarks and I completely disagree: https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2020 https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2020 https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-2024-10c-cpu https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-2024-10c-cpu I am quite satisfied with the rapid speed increases on Apple's CPUs the last couple years.
  - Tostino 2y ago
    That isn't transistor density doubling every 18-24 months related, which is specifically what Moore's law is about. Those increases are brought about by improved design, increasing bus bandwidth, larger chip sizes, etc.
    - bhouston 2y ago
      M1 from November 2020 has 16 billion on a 5mn process node at 39W TDP. M4 from November 2024 has 28 billion on a 3mn process node at 22W TDP. And remember that 5mn process node is just the length in one direction (although it isn't 5mn), so density technically increased by (5^2 / 3^2 = ) 2.7x during that 4 year period. That is less than the 4x one would expect, but it is far from Moore's law being dead.
      - Tostino 2y ago
        For the same cost* was left out of my post, but it is extremely important to Moore's law not being dead.
        bhouston 2y ago
        > For the same cost* was left out of my post. Mac Mini M4 is cheaper than the Mac Mini m1 and has better base specs. And the MacBook Air M4 is cheaper than the MacBook Air M1 and also has better base specs.
trueismywork 2y ago
Even then transistor density was doubling
- bhouston 2y ago
  Yeah, it really is a lost decade.
gavinray 2y ago
For what it's worth, I tend to upgrade my wife and I's laptops every 1-2 years, usually during Black Friday sales. Two years ago, I snagged laptops with a 32GB RAM, RTX 4070, and i9-13900HX for $1,500. Historically I've been able to get a sizeable bump in CPU + GPU performance for around the same price point, but currently there's nothing on the market. It _feels_ like the pace of development has slowed in the last few years. I don't think I'll be upgrading again until consumer X3D CPU laptops become available for a non-egregious price.
- bhouston 2y ago
  > It _feels_ like the pace of development has slowed in the last few years. If you stick with Intel you are artificially holding yourself back. NVIDIA is is optimizing for datacenter thus its stuff is not available to consumers except at inflated prices. Apple has consistent and significant speed improvements with each new M-series chip and their offers have not been increasing in price for the equivalent offers - e.g. Mac Mini and MacBook Air. AMD is doing pretty well as well, especially which high core counts. Although with the new tariffs, everything is going up in price but that is not related to Moore's law but Trump's economic policies.
  - gavinray 2y ago
    That's a fair point about the Apple ecosystem. I'm a Windows + WSL Linux and Android guy so I'm not knowledgeable about the ecosystem but from the HN announcements I've seen posted they appear to doing well. There are only two laptops on the market with X3D chips right now -- the ASUS ROG Strix SCAR 17 and the MSI Raider A18HX. Both of them have Ryzen 9 7945HX3D chips and the mobile RTX 4080's, and are priced equivalently at $2,500. Once I can snag something similar for the $1,500-1,800 range is when I'll upgrade.

Tostino 2y ago

Regardless of what you feel, it is long dead.

bhouston 2y ago
I look at these benchmarks and I completely disagree: https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2020 https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-late-2020 https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-2024-10c-cpu https://browser.geekbench.com/macs/mac-mini-2024-10c-cpu I am quite satisfied with the rapid speed increases on Apple's CPUs the last couple years.
- Tostino 2y ago
  That isn't transistor density doubling every 18-24 months related, which is specifically what Moore's law is about. Those increases are brought about by improved design, increasing bus bandwidth, larger chip sizes, etc.
  - bhouston 2y ago
    M1 from November 2020 has 16 billion on a 5mn process node at 39W TDP. M4 from November 2024 has 28 billion on a 3mn process node at 22W TDP. And remember that 5mn process node is just the length in one direction (although it isn't 5mn), so density technically increased by (5^2 / 3^2 = ) 2.7x during that 4 year period. That is less than the 4x one would expect, but it is far from Moore's law being dead.
    - Tostino 2y ago
      For the same cost* was left out of my post, but it is extremely important to Moore's law not being dead.
      - bhouston 2y ago
        > For the same cost* was left out of my post. Mac Mini M4 is cheaper than the Mac Mini m1 and has better base specs. And the MacBook Air M4 is cheaper than the MacBook Air M1 and also has better base specs.

trueismywork 2y ago

Even then transistor density was doubling

bhouston 2y ago
Yeah, it really is a lost decade.

gavinray 2y ago

For what it's worth, I tend to upgrade my wife and I's laptops every 1-2 years, usually during Black Friday sales. Two years ago, I snagged laptops with a 32GB RAM, RTX 4070, and i9-13900HX for $1,500. Historically I've been able to get a sizeable bump in CPU + GPU performance for around the same price point, but currently there's nothing on the market. It _feels_ like the pace of development has slowed in the last few years. I don't think I'll be upgrading again until consumer X3D CPU laptops become available for a non-egregious price.

bhouston 2y ago
> It _feels_ like the pace of development has slowed in the last few years. If you stick with Intel you are artificially holding yourself back. NVIDIA is is optimizing for datacenter thus its stuff is not available to consumers except at inflated prices. Apple has consistent and significant speed improvements with each new M-series chip and their offers have not been increasing in price for the equivalent offers - e.g. Mac Mini and MacBook Air. AMD is doing pretty well as well, especially which high core counts. Although with the new tariffs, everything is going up in price but that is not related to Moore's law but Trump's economic policies.
- gavinray 2y ago
  That's a fair point about the Apple ecosystem. I'm a Windows + WSL Linux and Android guy so I'm not knowledgeable about the ecosystem but from the HN announcements I've seen posted they appear to doing well. There are only two laptops on the market with X3D chips right now -- the ASUS ROG Strix SCAR 17 and the MSI Raider A18HX. Both of them have Ryzen 9 7945HX3D chips and the mobile RTX 4080's, and are priced equivalently at $2,500. Once I can snag something similar for the $1,500-1,800 range is when I'll upgrade.