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> On the supply side, natural population growth due to reproduction is surely a bigger driver than immigration. No, it’s really not. When a citizen is born, th

by xienze 2y ago

> On the supply side, natural population growth due to reproduction is surely a bigger driver than immigration. No, it’s really not. When a citizen is born, they don’t need their own place to live until they’re 18-20 years old. There’s time for the housing supply to catch up. When a citizen is imported, they need housing TODAY. No two ways about it, 1M births every year is a lot more sustainable from a new housing perspective than 1M immigrants every year (on top of births!).

schnitzelstoat 2y ago
The immigrants also pay taxes from today though. And have their own purchasing power for the private market. The issue is more NIMBY's preventing supply from meeting demand and local government not using the increased revenue effectively enough to provide sufficient infrastructure and services.
- xienze 2y ago
  > The immigrants also pay taxes from today though. But do they also consume less in social services than they contribute in taxes? Everyone has this romantic picture in their head that the never ending waves of immigrants to western countries are all doctors, lawyers, and nuclear physicists. In the US we seem fixated on bringing in poor, uneducated Central Americans. In Europe it’s a lot of poor, uneducated Africans. Perhaps through sheer numbers the GDP goes up, but the net value is debatable. > The issue is more NIMBY's preventing supply Wow, imagine that. People who bought a nice single family home don’t want a thirty story low income housing project plopped down next to them. There’s plenty of room on the outskirts of any given town to build the hundreds of skyscrapers needed annually to house these people, why not do that instead of trying to jam it all in existing areas and pissing off people who didn’t sign up for it?
  - gadders 2y ago
    >>Perhaps through sheer numbers the GDP goes up, but the net value is debatable. GDP is going up, but GDP per capita is currently declining.
ben_w 2y ago
> When a citizen is born, they don’t need their own place to live until they’re 18-20 years old. Only if you put their bed in the cupboard under the staircase; normally they do need their own bedroom — even if a couple can squeeze into a one-bed flat, they can't really raise a family there, and need to get a bigger place when they do start one.
- xienze 2y ago
  Well first, no it’s not a hard requirement that every kid has their own separate bedroom. Sharing bedrooms for kids is a thing. Second, if you started your family with a three bedroom house, kids 1 and 2 (or more, with sharing) are accounted for. Third, you’re ignoring the “on top of births” point. Those immigrants who need housing TODAY are ON TOP of births, and the number never slows down. That absolutely creates massive additional housing pressure.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > Well first, no it’s not a hard requirement that every kid has their own separate bedroom. Sharing bedrooms for kids is a thing. Sharing with their parents? Otherwise you still have this transition. > Second, if you started your family with a three bedroom house, kids 1 and 2 (or more, with sharing) are accounted for. If. Most people don't start at that rung of the housing ladder. My parents did… but they bought in the early 70s. I started on a one-bed apartment, which I let out when I emigrated. > Third, you’re ignoring the “on top of births” point. Those immigrants who need housing TODAY are ON TOP of births, and the number never slows down. That absolutely creates massive additional housing pressure. 1M births + 1M immigrants is indeed more than just 1M births. It's also begging the question, by presuming that in the absence of immigration there's no change to births. Or emigration, or house building, or a whole bunch of other things that influence all this — Indeed, one of the jobs immigrants can be found working at, is house building. Those kids who have yet to move out, occupy rooms, and yet can't immediately contribute to building more homes.
    - xienze 2y ago
      > Sharing with their parents? Otherwise you still have this transition. Why are you starting with the assumption that every family starts off as two parents living in a one bedroom apartment?

by xienze 2y ago

schnitzelstoat 2y ago

The immigrants also pay taxes from today though. And have their own purchasing power for the private market. The issue is more NIMBY's preventing supply from meeting demand and local government not using the increased revenue effectively enough to provide sufficient infrastructure and services.

xienze 2y ago
> The immigrants also pay taxes from today though. But do they also consume less in social services than they contribute in taxes? Everyone has this romantic picture in their head that the never ending waves of immigrants to western countries are all doctors, lawyers, and nuclear physicists. In the US we seem fixated on bringing in poor, uneducated Central Americans. In Europe it’s a lot of poor, uneducated Africans. Perhaps through sheer numbers the GDP goes up, but the net value is debatable. > The issue is more NIMBY's preventing supply Wow, imagine that. People who bought a nice single family home don’t want a thirty story low income housing project plopped down next to them. There’s plenty of room on the outskirts of any given town to build the hundreds of skyscrapers needed annually to house these people, why not do that instead of trying to jam it all in existing areas and pissing off people who didn’t sign up for it?
- gadders 2y ago
  >>Perhaps through sheer numbers the GDP goes up, but the net value is debatable. GDP is going up, but GDP per capita is currently declining.

ben_w 2y ago

> When a citizen is born, they don’t need their own place to live until they’re 18-20 years old. Only if you put their bed in the cupboard under the staircase; normally they do need their own bedroom — even if a couple can squeeze into a one-bed flat, they can't really raise a family there, and need to get a bigger place when they do start one.

xienze 2y ago
Well first, no it’s not a hard requirement that every kid has their own separate bedroom. Sharing bedrooms for kids is a thing. Second, if you started your family with a three bedroom house, kids 1 and 2 (or more, with sharing) are accounted for. Third, you’re ignoring the “on top of births” point. Those immigrants who need housing TODAY are ON TOP of births, and the number never slows down. That absolutely creates massive additional housing pressure.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > Well first, no it’s not a hard requirement that every kid has their own separate bedroom. Sharing bedrooms for kids is a thing. Sharing with their parents? Otherwise you still have this transition. > Second, if you started your family with a three bedroom house, kids 1 and 2 (or more, with sharing) are accounted for. If. Most people don't start at that rung of the housing ladder. My parents did… but they bought in the early 70s. I started on a one-bed apartment, which I let out when I emigrated. > Third, you’re ignoring the “on top of births” point. Those immigrants who need housing TODAY are ON TOP of births, and the number never slows down. That absolutely creates massive additional housing pressure. 1M births + 1M immigrants is indeed more than just 1M births. It's also begging the question, by presuming that in the absence of immigration there's no change to births. Or emigration, or house building, or a whole bunch of other things that influence all this — Indeed, one of the jobs immigrants can be found working at, is house building. Those kids who have yet to move out, occupy rooms, and yet can't immediately contribute to building more homes.
  - xienze 2y ago
    > Sharing with their parents? Otherwise you still have this transition. Why are you starting with the assumption that every family starts off as two parents living in a one bedroom apartment?