4 ms·

Seems like the most likely explanation to me. If he were arrested for being a spy, presumably the DOJ would want to showcase it.

runarberg 2y ago
Think like a Bayesian. How many spies have been caught lately? of them, how many did the DOJ showcase? Wikipedia has a list of imprisoned spies in the USA. It is pretty sparse, the last spy to be convicted in the USA was in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_imprisoned_spies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_imprisoned_spies Searching the DOJ homepage with the search term “spy” (to see which they have showcased) gives us 209 results, including a bunch of news around the 2009 conviction. The most resent news I found was from 2022 (https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/five-individuals-charged-variously-stalking-harassing-and-spying-us-residents-behalf-prc-0 https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/five-individuals-cha...) a very vague news which is actually more about harassing private citizen (presumably piggy-banking out of the anti-asian hate following Covid). The most resent news about actual spying against the US government was from 2020 (https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-arrested-and-charged-espionage https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-a...) Alexander Yuk Ching Ma. He was actually found guilty in may 2024 (so he is missing from that Wikipedia list). The DOJ article about the conviction doesn’t use the word spy, so it is missing from my search, but here it is: https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-sentenced-10-years-prison-conspiracy-commit-espionage https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-s.... Given the above, I think it is safe to bet that if he was arrested for being a spy, the DOJ would indeed want to showecase it. However, spies are very rare, and the likelyhood of OP’s case being a spy is very low. It is much more likely that he disappeared for other reasons.
- Spooky23 2y ago
  A guy was arrested for being a PRC spy, stealing sensitive documents from GE Vernona. 2-3 years ago. I remember it because he was using stenography to embed documents in landscape photos sent via email. They also use various means to charge people. Lying to a federal agent is a serious crime. Almost any misuse of federal funds can a a serious crime.
  - fsiefken 2y ago
    how did they catch that?
    - Spooky23 2y ago
      IIRC, he was sending pictures of the sunset on his jog every day, and the pictures were unusually large. https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/01/04/ge_turbine_china_prison/ https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/01/04/ge_turbine_china_...
- zmgsabst 2y ago
  There’s 3 soldiers arrested this year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LOP645eW-M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LOP645eW-M
atian 2y ago
Sounds like entrapment or he was heavily induced (by whatever) into whatever they got him for. Maybe he'll get pardoned like Ulbricht.

runarberg 2y ago

Think like a Bayesian. How many spies have been caught lately? of them, how many did the DOJ showcase? Wikipedia has a list of imprisoned spies in the USA. It is pretty sparse, the last spy to be convicted in the USA was in 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_imprisoned_spies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_imprisoned_spies Searching the DOJ homepage with the search term “spy” (to see which they have showcased) gives us 209 results, including a bunch of news around the 2009 conviction. The most resent news I found was from 2022 (https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/five-individuals-charged-variously-stalking-harassing-and-spying-us-residents-behalf-prc-0 https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/five-individuals-cha...) a very vague news which is actually more about harassing private citizen (presumably piggy-banking out of the anti-asian hate following Covid). The most resent news about actual spying against the US government was from 2020 (https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-arrested-and-charged-espionage https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-a...) Alexander Yuk Ching Ma. He was actually found guilty in may 2024 (so he is missing from that Wikipedia list). The DOJ article about the conviction doesn’t use the word spy, so it is missing from my search, but here it is: https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-sentenced-10-years-prison-conspiracy-commit-espionage https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/former-cia-officer-s.... Given the above, I think it is safe to bet that if he was arrested for being a spy, the DOJ would indeed want to showecase it. However, spies are very rare, and the likelyhood of OP’s case being a spy is very low. It is much more likely that he disappeared for other reasons.

Spooky23 2y ago
A guy was arrested for being a PRC spy, stealing sensitive documents from GE Vernona. 2-3 years ago. I remember it because he was using stenography to embed documents in landscape photos sent via email. They also use various means to charge people. Lying to a federal agent is a serious crime. Almost any misuse of federal funds can a a serious crime.
- fsiefken 2y ago
  how did they catch that?
  - Spooky23 2y ago
    IIRC, he was sending pictures of the sunset on his jog every day, and the pictures were unusually large. https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/01/04/ge_turbine_china_prison/ https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/01/04/ge_turbine_china_...
zmgsabst 2y ago
There’s 3 soldiers arrested this year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LOP645eW-M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LOP645eW-M

atian 2y ago

Sounds like entrapment or he was heavily induced (by whatever) into whatever they got him for. Maybe he'll get pardoned like Ulbricht.