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> we're just seeing mass layoffs here zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. We're seeing layoffs because of a one-two punch of insane overhiring

> we're just seeing mass layoffs here zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. We're seeing layoffs because of a one-two punch of insane overhiring during/after covid followed immediately by an economic pullback and return to "lean" operating strategies.

echelon 2y ago
Those are a few of the reasons. There are more. End of ZIRP, monopolies realizing they don't have to employ all the talented engineers to prevent competition anymore, etc. But you can't exclude AI. Chegg and StackOverflow certainly beg to differ with your hypothesis. And they're only the first to fall.
- tobr 2y ago
  There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI. Stack Overflow might have fewer employees, while the AI companies expand. That’s not a good explanation for a job market bust.
  - bluefirebrand 2y ago
    > There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI Technically yes But the difference is not really meaningful to the people who are out of work, is it?
    - tobr 2y ago
      It’s relevant to a discussion about whether AI is causing unemployment in the tech industry. Basically anything can cause unemployment if the bar is that some company somewhere is affected in a way that leads them to have to lay someone off.
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
> zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. Hard disagree on "zero", and I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI (Washington Post had an article about people getting let go shortly after ChatGPT first came out, e.g. copywriters), so this is just demonstrably false. That said, I agree the larger reason for the current layoffs are (a) massive Covid overhiring, (b) end of the ~decade long ZIRP era, (c) at least in the US, much more outsourcing now that video conf tech is good and everyone is used to remote work. Long term, though, I think we've reached a state where, for a ton of jobs, technology is destroying jobs a lot faster than it's creating new ones. Lots has been written about how many startups can now execute quickly with a team half the size or less than what was required just a couple years ago. Many forms of labor have just become devalued in an incredibly short time span.
- dartos 2y ago
  > I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI Out of curiosity, were these announcements by AI companies or companies with an interest in AI companies? At lot of articles you read are effectively advertising, especially if it’s a CEO talking about their company.
  - hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
    It was an article from the point of view of people who actually lost their jobs due to AI. People are simply in denial if they think this isn't happening. And this article is from nearly 2 years ago. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taking-jobs/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taki... https://archive.vn/C5syl https://archive.vn/C5syl
    - dartos 2y ago
      Well OC was referring to mass layoffs. That article seems to be about contracted copywriters. If your whole job is writing “150-word descriptions” (the article’s words) for $60 an hour and the like, yeah LLMs got you beat. But that’s a far cry from mass layoff territory. Also, in that same article, he was rehired by a (granted, a single) client who didn’t like chatgpt. What is the rate of clients that dropped chatgpt?

echelon 2y ago

Those are a few of the reasons. There are more. End of ZIRP, monopolies realizing they don't have to employ all the talented engineers to prevent competition anymore, etc. But you can't exclude AI. Chegg and StackOverflow certainly beg to differ with your hypothesis. And they're only the first to fall.

tobr 2y ago
There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI. Stack Overflow might have fewer employees, while the AI companies expand. That’s not a good explanation for a job market bust.
- bluefirebrand 2y ago
  > There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI Technically yes But the difference is not really meaningful to the people who are out of work, is it?
  - tobr 2y ago
    It’s relevant to a discussion about whether AI is causing unemployment in the tech industry. Basically anything can cause unemployment if the bar is that some company somewhere is affected in a way that leads them to have to lay someone off.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

> zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. Hard disagree on "zero", and I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI (Washington Post had an article about people getting let go shortly after ChatGPT first came out, e.g. copywriters), so this is just demonstrably false. That said, I agree the larger reason for the current layoffs are (a) massive Covid overhiring, (b) end of the ~decade long ZIRP era, (c) at least in the US, much more outsourcing now that video conf tech is good and everyone is used to remote work. Long term, though, I think we've reached a state where, for a ton of jobs, technology is destroying jobs a lot faster than it's creating new ones. Lots has been written about how many startups can now execute quickly with a team half the size or less than what was required just a couple years ago. Many forms of labor have just become devalued in an incredibly short time span.

dartos 2y ago
> I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI Out of curiosity, were these announcements by AI companies or companies with an interest in AI companies? At lot of articles you read are effectively advertising, especially if it’s a CEO talking about their company.
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  It was an article from the point of view of people who actually lost their jobs due to AI. People are simply in denial if they think this isn't happening. And this article is from nearly 2 years ago. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taking-jobs/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/02/ai-taki... https://archive.vn/C5syl https://archive.vn/C5syl
  - dartos 2y ago
    Well OC was referring to mass layoffs. That article seems to be about contracted copywriters. If your whole job is writing “150-word descriptions” (the article’s words) for $60 an hour and the like, yeah LLMs got you beat. But that’s a far cry from mass layoff territory. Also, in that same article, he was rehired by a (granted, a single) client who didn’t like chatgpt. What is the rate of clients that dropped chatgpt?