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> It's so good that I think it kills off a bunch of businesses. I disagree with the premise that somehow now all startups and small business would like to do t

by diggan 2y ago

> It's so good that I think it kills off a bunch of businesses. I disagree with the premise that somehow now all startups and small business would like to do their own webdesign simply because LLMs can help with some of the process, same goes for the rest of your points. Those business won't disappear, but instead they'll be able to make more with less, just like in the past when automation been improved. People don't suddenly get fired, but instead pick up new skills and can suddenly do much more. The dream was always that we could automate humanity enough so we can all have more free-time, but turns out that just have the same amount of free-time as before but now we're pushed to do even more in less time.

deleted 2y ago
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bluefirebrand 2y ago
> People don't suddenly get fired, but instead pick up new skills and can suddenly do much more. What idyllic utopia are you living in? It cannot be the same world I'm living in, we're just seeing mass layoffs here > The dream was always that we could automate humanity enough so we can all have more free-time, The dream of the workforce maybe. I think the dream of the wealthy and owner class is that they no longer need a workforce at all and can safely grind us workers into fertilizer without losing any quality of life for themselves
- diggan 2y ago
  > It cannot be the same world I'm living in, we're just seeing mass layoffs here I'm seeing mass layoffs all around too, I believe it's because they added too many people in the past though, not because LLMs will suddenly replace a bunch of roles that suddenly won't need humans. Of course the companies won't admit to hiring too much before, but instead find the most convenient scapegoat. Having a different perspective is not living in a different world, it's just a different perspective. > I think the dream of the wealthy and owner class is that they no longer need a workforce at all and can safely grind us workers into fertilizer without losing any quality of life for themselves Certainly true in some countries like the US where the working and middle class basically has given up, but absolutely not true in other places. I'd love to see them try though, long time ago we rebalanced the scales so about time.
  - achierius 2y ago
    Why do you think your upper classes have a different dream just because your working classes are better at pushing back? They want the same thing as American ones so, and it's dangerous to forget that.
- rco8786 2y ago
  > we're just seeing mass layoffs here zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. We're seeing layoffs because of a one-two punch of insane overhiring during/after covid followed immediately by an economic pullback and return to "lean" operating strategies.
  - echelon 2y ago
    Those are a few of the reasons. There are more. End of ZIRP, monopolies realizing they don't have to employ all the talented engineers to prevent competition anymore, etc. But you can't exclude AI. Chegg and StackOverflow certainly beg to differ with your hypothesis. And they're only the first to fall.
    - tobr 2y ago
      There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI. Stack Overflow might have fewer employees, while the AI companies expand. That’s not a good explanation for a job market bust.
      - bluefirebrand 2y ago
        > There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI Technically yes But the difference is not really meaningful to the people who are out of work, is it?
        tobr 2y ago
        It’s relevant to a discussion about whether AI is causing unemployment in the tech industry. Basically anything can cause unemployment if the bar is that some company somewhere is affected in a way that leads them to have to lay someone off.
  - hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
    > zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. Hard disagree on "zero", and I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI (Washington Post had an article about people getting let go shortly after ChatGPT first came out, e.g. copywriters), so this is just demonstrably false. That said, I agree the larger reason for the current layoffs are (a) massive Covid overhiring, (b) end of the ~decade long ZIRP era, (c) at least in the US, much more outsourcing now that video conf tech is good and everyone is used to remote work. Long term, though, I think we've reached a state where, for a ton of jobs, technology is destroying jobs a lot faster than it's creating new ones. Lots has been written about how many startups can now execute quickly with a team half the size or less than what was required just a couple years ago. Many forms of labor have just become devalued in an incredibly short time span.
sharemywin 2y ago
as long as there's labor competition and legal monopolies the monopolies will always squeeze labor.
PeterStuer 2y ago
I think you severely underestimate how poorly the average small business experience is with the small website production market. It's not just the price. Most I know feel scammed and would jump at the bit of getting rid of those "service providers"

by diggan 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

bluefirebrand 2y ago

> People don't suddenly get fired, but instead pick up new skills and can suddenly do much more. What idyllic utopia are you living in? It cannot be the same world I'm living in, we're just seeing mass layoffs here > The dream was always that we could automate humanity enough so we can all have more free-time, The dream of the workforce maybe. I think the dream of the wealthy and owner class is that they no longer need a workforce at all and can safely grind us workers into fertilizer without losing any quality of life for themselves

diggan 2y ago
> It cannot be the same world I'm living in, we're just seeing mass layoffs here I'm seeing mass layoffs all around too, I believe it's because they added too many people in the past though, not because LLMs will suddenly replace a bunch of roles that suddenly won't need humans. Of course the companies won't admit to hiring too much before, but instead find the most convenient scapegoat. Having a different perspective is not living in a different world, it's just a different perspective. > I think the dream of the wealthy and owner class is that they no longer need a workforce at all and can safely grind us workers into fertilizer without losing any quality of life for themselves Certainly true in some countries like the US where the working and middle class basically has given up, but absolutely not true in other places. I'd love to see them try though, long time ago we rebalanced the scales so about time.
- achierius 2y ago
  Why do you think your upper classes have a different dream just because your working classes are better at pushing back? They want the same thing as American ones so, and it's dangerous to forget that.
rco8786 2y ago
> we're just seeing mass layoffs here zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. We're seeing layoffs because of a one-two punch of insane overhiring during/after covid followed immediately by an economic pullback and return to "lean" operating strategies.
- echelon 2y ago
  Those are a few of the reasons. There are more. End of ZIRP, monopolies realizing they don't have to employ all the talented engineers to prevent competition anymore, etc. But you can't exclude AI. Chegg and StackOverflow certainly beg to differ with your hypothesis. And they're only the first to fall.
  - tobr 2y ago
    There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI. Stack Overflow might have fewer employees, while the AI companies expand. That’s not a good explanation for a job market bust.
    - bluefirebrand 2y ago
      > There’s a difference between your job being replaced by AI and your employer being disrupted by AI Technically yes But the difference is not really meaningful to the people who are out of work, is it?
      - tobr 2y ago
        It’s relevant to a discussion about whether AI is causing unemployment in the tech industry. Basically anything can cause unemployment if the bar is that some company somewhere is affected in a way that leads them to have to lay someone off.
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  > zero of those jobs have been replaced by AI though. Hard disagree on "zero", and I've read articles about businesses laying off people specifically to replace them with AI (Washington Post had an article about people getting let go shortly after ChatGPT first came out, e.g. copywriters), so this is just demonstrably false. That said, I agree the larger reason for the current layoffs are (a) massive Covid overhiring, (b) end of the ~decade long ZIRP era, (c) at least in the US, much more outsourcing now that video conf tech is good and everyone is used to remote work. Long term, though, I think we've reached a state where, for a ton of jobs, technology is destroying jobs a lot faster than it's creating new ones. Lots has been written about how many startups can now execute quickly with a team half the size or less than what was required just a couple years ago. Many forms of labor have just become devalued in an incredibly short time span.

sharemywin 2y ago

as long as there's labor competition and legal monopolies the monopolies will always squeeze labor.

PeterStuer 2y ago

I think you severely underestimate how poorly the average small business experience is with the small website production market. It's not just the price. Most I know feel scammed and would jump at the bit of getting rid of those "service providers"