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To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing a

To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition. The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla. While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying his stock like crazy. And not just the "dumb money" retail investors but also the "professional" institutional investors who do this for a living. They now hold 70% of TSLA stock. The P/E of TSLA is around 130. The P/E of GM, Ford and Toyota are all less than 10. In other words, TSLA is outrageously overpriced --- by a factor of at least 10. If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? I don't think so. Tesla's stock price and Musk's business persona are dangling by a thread being held up by these "professional investors". In my opinion, out of fear for their upcoming performance bonuses. Once this thread is cut, Musk will own one of the worst self inflicted financial disasters in the history of business.

Agingcoder 2y ago
I understand his shares are collateral for his various other ventures ( and most likely personal expenses ) - a Tesla stock crash might have other consequences
- dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
  That's why he had to "sell" X, he was facing margin calls on this Tesla stock and would have been forced to sell stock.
itsdrewmiller 2y ago
>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)
- jqpabc123 2y ago
  In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company Only $60 billion??? You're selling him way short. At it's peak earlier this year, Tesla market cap was $1.5 TRILLION --- valued at more than all the world's major auto manufacturer's COMBINED. All while commanding only about 4% of unit sales. Can you say O-U-T-R-A-G-E-O-U-S-L-Y over priced? Since then, TSLA has lost almost half it's value --- and by any sane measure, it is still OUTRAGEOUSLY over priced.
  - quantified 2y ago
    It's really hard to say how much was meme valuation and how much was people actually believing his statements about Full* Self-Driving, cars becoming an appreciating asset (!), humanoid robots. Plenty of people believe his ~lies~commercial puffery.
    - jqpabc123 2y ago
      "Plenty of people believe his ~lies~commercial puffery." Plenty of these "believers" don't have money to invest in TSLA stock. Most of those who have invested are so-called "professionals" whose job it is to avoid falling for "puffery". These "professionals" will eventually be forced to own the fact that they have been bamboozled by a con artist. And once this starts, the wheels are going to fall off the Tesla car really fast.
    - jauntywundrkind 2y ago
      Its really distressing that there's seemingly zero enforcement over the incredible campaign of lies Musk has used to sell Tesla and SpaceX, HyperLoop, and others. Musk was claiming Cybertruck had a million preorders! A million! Yet there are ~50k sales, a 20:1 ratio. https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/ https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people... Musk keeps getting away with dumping the investors, with saying whatever crazy shit he wants. And so far, the market regulators havent once bothered to care. Meanwhile, National Labor Board has been investigating Tesla for firing employees who complained online about sexually despairing comments. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has investigating Tesla factories for racism including slurs, racist graffiti, and nooses. uS Transportation Board has been investigating accidents caused by Actually Smart Summons and self driving modes. FAA has been investigating illegal rocket launches in Florida, & reviewing requests to turn the once experimental star base launch site into a much busier production site. CFPB would have been involved in regulating X's move to become a banking app. FEC has been investigating Musk offering $1M/day to voters who sign up for his PAC. SEC has been investigating failure to give timely notice in the Twitter acquisition, costing investors billions. EPA has been investigating multiple Tesla sites (very) improperly disposing of hazardous waste. All agencies have recent seen cuts from Musk's DOGE, with many of these investigators forced out. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-03-27/elon-musk-trump-doge-conflicts-of-interest https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-03-27/elon-musk-...
happytoexplain 2y ago
It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. I.e. he simply values what he's doing ("fixing" government, championing the current tone of the right, etc), and believes the business-side impact is worth it. He also may believe that the long-term impact isn't as bad as it seems because this all might enlarge the right-wing part of his customer base.
- mingus88 2y ago
  Conservatives by definition are not prone to paradigm shifts. I own an EV truck and I simply cannot comprehend the animus from “truck guys”. Here is a vehicle made in a U.S. factory, powered by 100% US energy, no foreign oil, with towing capacity, torque and top speed that puts legacy vehicles to shame. But for reasons that only make sense inside their political bubble, these trucks are threats to their way of life. Musk’s concept vehicles with nothing but flat screens that promise to take the burden of driving away from us entirely are never going to catch on with heartland Americans.
- jqpabc123 2y ago
  It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. Yes, that certainly does explain his substantial history of charity, benevolence and ethical business practices. https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/12/elon_musk_appeals_voided_pay_package/ https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/12/elon_musk_appeals_voi...
kreetx 2y ago
Tesla stock buyers are buying it for future promise, thus the value. The other car makers aren't innovating as much so there isn't any perceived future to pull forward and buy. The disaster you are expecting is just your wishful thinking, if you look around the web, there is an alternate reality that says the direct opposite from you.
- JohnFen 2y ago
  The reality is that nobody knows what the future will be. Not the person you're replying to, not the investors, not you, not me. But my gut tells me it's more likely to be the speculative investors who are engaging in wishful thinking. I haven't seen any real reason to suspect otherwise, even before the events of the last couple of years.
  - kreetx 2y ago
    Technically, sure, it's not possible to tell what the future will be, yet other automakers somehow haven't managed to innovate as much and here is a new carmaker from the US that ships actual products en masse. Also, apparently Elon is able to do more than one difficult thing at the same time and succeed. The stock bubbles may burst and fall but it's unlikely an end to anything.
    - JohnFen 2y ago
      > yet other automakers somehow haven't managed to innovate as much Sure, but that's a bit orthogonal to the question of whether the wild speculative valuations of Tesla stock will end in tears or not. Innovation, all by itself, is not sufficient or a good indicator of total value. > apparently Elon is able to do more than one difficult thing at the same time and succeed He's far from the only one, though, and he only appears exceptional if you ignore his much larger list of abject failures. This mythologizing of Musk is just as accurate and cringe as claims that he is terrible at everything.
      - kreetx 2y ago
maxglute 2y ago
IMO if Musk serious about going to mars, being mere richest 100 billionaire from wildly overhyped meme Tesla stock simply isn't enough. The smart play IS what he's doing right now... go for government power and get trillions, not just any government, but US government with trillions to extract. Of course that assumes he can secure his influence medium-long term, but dumb execution = doesn't look like he can survive next 4 years with how many enemies he's making.

Agingcoder 2y ago

I understand his shares are collateral for his various other ventures ( and most likely personal expenses ) - a Tesla stock crash might have other consequences

dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
That's why he had to "sell" X, he was facing margin calls on this Tesla stock and would have been forced to sell stock.

itsdrewmiller 2y ago

>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)

jqpabc123 2y ago
In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company Only $60 billion??? You're selling him way short. At it's peak earlier this year, Tesla market cap was $1.5 TRILLION --- valued at more than all the world's major auto manufacturer's COMBINED. All while commanding only about 4% of unit sales. Can you say O-U-T-R-A-G-E-O-U-S-L-Y over priced? Since then, TSLA has lost almost half it's value --- and by any sane measure, it is still OUTRAGEOUSLY over priced.
- quantified 2y ago
  It's really hard to say how much was meme valuation and how much was people actually believing his statements about Full* Self-Driving, cars becoming an appreciating asset (!), humanoid robots. Plenty of people believe his ~lies~commercial puffery.
  - jqpabc123 2y ago
    "Plenty of people believe his ~lies~commercial puffery." Plenty of these "believers" don't have money to invest in TSLA stock. Most of those who have invested are so-called "professionals" whose job it is to avoid falling for "puffery". These "professionals" will eventually be forced to own the fact that they have been bamboozled by a con artist. And once this starts, the wheels are going to fall off the Tesla car really fast.
  - jauntywundrkind 2y ago
    Its really distressing that there's seemingly zero enforcement over the incredible campaign of lies Musk has used to sell Tesla and SpaceX, HyperLoop, and others. Musk was claiming Cybertruck had a million preorders! A million! Yet there are ~50k sales, a 20:1 ratio. https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/ https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people... Musk keeps getting away with dumping the investors, with saying whatever crazy shit he wants. And so far, the market regulators havent once bothered to care. Meanwhile, National Labor Board has been investigating Tesla for firing employees who complained online about sexually despairing comments. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has investigating Tesla factories for racism including slurs, racist graffiti, and nooses. uS Transportation Board has been investigating accidents caused by Actually Smart Summons and self driving modes. FAA has been investigating illegal rocket launches in Florida, & reviewing requests to turn the once experimental star base launch site into a much busier production site. CFPB would have been involved in regulating X's move to become a banking app. FEC has been investigating Musk offering $1M/day to voters who sign up for his PAC. SEC has been investigating failure to give timely notice in the Twitter acquisition, costing investors billions. EPA has been investigating multiple Tesla sites (very) improperly disposing of hazardous waste. All agencies have recent seen cuts from Musk's DOGE, with many of these investigators forced out. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-03-27/elon-musk-trump-doge-conflicts-of-interest https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-03-27/elon-musk-...

happytoexplain 2y ago

It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. I.e. he simply values what he's doing ("fixing" government, championing the current tone of the right, etc), and believes the business-side impact is worth it. He also may believe that the long-term impact isn't as bad as it seems because this all might enlarge the right-wing part of his customer base.

mingus88 2y ago
Conservatives by definition are not prone to paradigm shifts. I own an EV truck and I simply cannot comprehend the animus from “truck guys”. Here is a vehicle made in a U.S. factory, powered by 100% US energy, no foreign oil, with towing capacity, torque and top speed that puts legacy vehicles to shame. But for reasons that only make sense inside their political bubble, these trucks are threats to their way of life. Musk’s concept vehicles with nothing but flat screens that promise to take the burden of driving away from us entirely are never going to catch on with heartland Americans.
jqpabc123 2y ago
It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. Yes, that certainly does explain his substantial history of charity, benevolence and ethical business practices. https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/12/elon_musk_appeals_voided_pay_package/ https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/12/elon_musk_appeals_voi...

kreetx 2y ago

Tesla stock buyers are buying it for future promise, thus the value. The other car makers aren't innovating as much so there isn't any perceived future to pull forward and buy. The disaster you are expecting is just your wishful thinking, if you look around the web, there is an alternate reality that says the direct opposite from you.

JohnFen 2y ago
The reality is that nobody knows what the future will be. Not the person you're replying to, not the investors, not you, not me. But my gut tells me it's more likely to be the speculative investors who are engaging in wishful thinking. I haven't seen any real reason to suspect otherwise, even before the events of the last couple of years.
- kreetx 2y ago
  Technically, sure, it's not possible to tell what the future will be, yet other automakers somehow haven't managed to innovate as much and here is a new carmaker from the US that ships actual products en masse. Also, apparently Elon is able to do more than one difficult thing at the same time and succeed. The stock bubbles may burst and fall but it's unlikely an end to anything.
  - JohnFen 2y ago
    > yet other automakers somehow haven't managed to innovate as much Sure, but that's a bit orthogonal to the question of whether the wild speculative valuations of Tesla stock will end in tears or not. Innovation, all by itself, is not sufficient or a good indicator of total value. > apparently Elon is able to do more than one difficult thing at the same time and succeed He's far from the only one, though, and he only appears exceptional if you ignore his much larger list of abject failures. This mythologizing of Musk is just as accurate and cringe as claims that he is terrible at everything.
    - kreetx 2y ago

maxglute 2y ago

IMO if Musk serious about going to mars, being mere richest 100 billionaire from wildly overhyped meme Tesla stock simply isn't enough. The smart play IS what he's doing right now... go for government power and get trillions, not just any government, but US government with trillions to extract. Of course that assumes he can secure his influence medium-long term, but dumb execution = doesn't look like he can survive next 4 years with how many enemies he's making.