6 ms·

'Catastrophic': Canadian bookings for U.S. travel drop sharply

67 points by mgh2 2y ago

shortrounddev2 2y ago
Would not want to travel to the US right now if I weren't already from here
- bayarearefugee 2y ago
  Yeah even if you remove politics from the equation (which is impossible to actually do of course), I wouldn't travel to the US as an outsider just for the practical realities of the personal hardship it might cause, especially if you ever said a single negative thing about the current administration or Israel on social media or you happen to be brown and have tattoos. (For context I am a US citizen living in the US, and terribly embarrassed to admit this because holy shit we've really dropped the ball)
  - zmgsabst 2y ago
    What’s the comparison?
- stephenr 2y ago
  Based on the news I've seen I'm not sure being from there is a good reason to travel there either.
- throwaway657656 2y ago
  US citizens may not want to travel internationally because they don't trust US customs and border agents upon their return. About 20 years ago a customs agent asked me, "are you thanking the lord Jesus Christ that you have returned safely to America". You just tell them what they wanted to hear and you were fine. Now if I am not mistaken, they can demand you unlock your phone which might show you were at a Tesla Takedown rally, or purchased a movie ticket to No Other Land, or whatever else is deemed verboten. I am unclear how long a citizen can be detained/delayed by a customs agent without cause.
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    Reminds me of this guy who had TTP revoked next day after he posted how US is becoming similar to PRC: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHwEjGazRKx https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHwEjGazRKx I thought why do you care, this is just a fast lane but your comment was enlightening... (I am sure based on other recent cases they would totally revoke his visa if he was not a citizen already)
- praptak 2y ago
  Being from there only means they can't deport you or deny entry indefinitely, right?
  - _nalply 2y ago
    The thing is, you sound hopeful, which I think you should find worrying by itself. To be explicit: You feel the chilling effect. Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilling_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilling_effect) says: > [...] a chilling effect is the inhibition or discouragement of the legitimate exercise of natural and legal rights by the threat of legal sanction. A chilling effect may be caused by legal actions such as the passing of a law, the decision of a court, or the threat of a lawsuit; any legal action that would cause people to hesitate to exercise a legitimate right (freedom of speech or otherwise) for fear of legal repercussions. In other words: A chilling effect is when people are scared to use their rights because they fear legal trouble. This can happen because of new laws, court rulings, or threats of lawsuits. It makes people hesitate to do something they’re normally allowed to do. You are wondering whether to go abroad. BOOM.
  - patagurbon 2y ago
    Multiple senior leaders in Trump’s White House, including old school republicans like Rubio have floated deporting American citizens to El Salvador. I would not want to be the person at the center of those court cases
    - archagon 2y ago
      Especially if you’re already shaved and rotting in that prison in defiance of an injunction.
- Gibbon1 2y ago
  I ain't leaving California any time soon either.
gbraad 2y ago
Same happens for Europeans; they do not want to travel to the US. Even some embassies call for caution, like Germany and the UK due to border/visa issues that happened.
zeagle 2y ago
Trade dispute? Well that is one way to call it. The threats of annexation (to us, Greenland, Panama…) general disrespect, news of people being held at the border for days and then deported, all with ongoing support for the party doing this that ran on this platform is something is else.
- zmgsabst 2y ago
  Is it really? This seems a pretty obvious outcome of foreign allies constantly negging us for supporting their defense and international organizations taking advantage of the US while citizens are undermined at home. Progressive managerialism failed to regulate its excesses — and this is what it looks like when that machinery breaks.
  - swarnie 2y ago
    The US dictated the rules of the modern world and have seemingly been happy with them for the last 80 years. Everyone is fine if you want a change, go back to your own country, stop trying to be World Police and focus on domestic issues for a few years. What we aren't happy about is the constant threats of invasion and subjugation.
    - zmgsabst 2y ago
      > The US dictated the rules of the modern world and have seemingly been happy with them for the last 80 years. The US isn’t a homogeneous entity: for at least 40 years (since the 1980s) there’s been a sharp divide between the general populace and the elites. Unfortunately, this wasn’t corrected until it became overwhelming resentment. You can look at the Seattle WTO riots for an example. > Everyone is fine if you want a change, go back to your own country, stop trying to be World Police and focus on domestic issues for a few years. NATO et al have repeatedly complained about just that. > What we aren't happy about is the constant threats of invasion and subjugation. Neither were Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. What’s shocking to Canada and EU is not that the US has changed, but realizing where they stand in the world outside of a US supported alliance. The US is merely applying its policy from the past 80 years within its North American sphere of influence (ie, Canada, Greenland, Panama).
ggm 2y ago
> A 10 per cent drop in Canada-U.S. travel would risk 14,000 American job losses and US$2.1 billion in lost spending, the association estimates. So it's a large-ish visible economic impact but probably distributed over the surface so not felt as an apex problem in ways which will strongly inform the US side of things. If enough of it converts to domestic tourism there will be improvements in consumer spending also fairly widely distributed but the Canadian government may be more motivated to quantify this.
- sanswork 2y ago
  It wouldn't be that widely distributed the majority will be in Florida and Arizona if the snowbirds look elsewhere. Border cities used to cross border shopping trips will also be impacted. I would be surprised if the drop is that low too, just about every Canadian I know is avoiding travel south unless it's already been paid for.
  - ggm 2y ago
    The article quantifies the cost at 10% but the actual decline in flight is 70% so it's "do the maths" I doubt 70% will sustain but its certainly billions.
    - gizmo686 2y ago
      I wonder if there is a discrepency between the numbers for "travel" and "flights". The US and Canada share a large land border. I would imagine that people who cross at a land border would be more stable in their patterns. Land travelers are much more restricted in where they can go, and more likely to have regular destinations they make habits out of.
      - youngtaff 2y ago
        Land crossings in Feb 2025 were down 500,000 on Fed ‘24 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/decline-travellers-driving-from-canada-u-s-february https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/decline-travellers-driv...
fulafel 2y ago
The wider context seems missing: Rapid ramping down of fossil fuel based air travel is needed to mitigate the climate disaster.
- TheSpiceIsLife 2y ago
  If we've got data, let's go with the data. Aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global CO² emissions. https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions Rapidly ramping down fossil fuel based air travel will have approximately no effect on climate.
  - fulafel 2y ago
    From your link: "Although CO2 gets most of the attention, it accounts for less than half of this warming. Two-thirds come from non-CO2 forcings." So it's much over 5%. All of transport sector emissions makes up 20%. The other subsectors are decarbonising, but there's no tech solution in sight for air travel in the needed timeframe. And air travel is growing alarmingly quickly (doubled between 2006 and 2019). All the individual slices of the pie we can tackle are pretty small, aviation is one of the bigger ones. We can't keep subdividing and then concluding for each one that it's too small to matter.
    - TheSpiceIsLife 2y ago
      Also from my link: In 1990, one passenger-kilometer would emit 357 grams of CO2. By 2019, this had more than halved to 157 grams.
      - fulafel 2y ago
        That's true, but of course this is a much slower rate of improvement (30 years to 2x) than the growth of air travel, and has slowed in recent years[1] since seat density and seatu utilization can't be increased much more without radical approaches like sedating people and stacking them like cargo. [1] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/future-air-mobility-blog/fuel-efficiency-why-airlines-need-to-switch-to-more-ambitious-measures https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/ou...
ChrisArchitect 2y ago
[dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649
theGeatZhopa 2y ago
Stay at home. Don't by us. This is what me as a german will do. I can't ditch goog or WhatsApp. The other apps I do not use. So, alternatives are less, but Europe will regulate it soon with TERIFFS tariffs so fearsome that you can't call them tariffs anymore, but rather terror-ifs. Tariffs on digital goods. Thank you Europe.
buyucu 2y ago
I cancelled a business trip to the US and did virtual meeting instead. No way I'm going to a country that detains people on the border for no reason.
swat535 2y ago
I’m not dismissing the trade issue but I’d like to point out that the currency exchange rate is really bad right now, I’m not sure many Canadians can afford to travel these days. Our economy is not doing so hot with raising rents and grocery prices, people are struggling. I think there are multiple factors at play here but Trump’s rhetoric is certainly not helping.

67 points by mgh2 2y ago

shortrounddev2 2y ago

Would not want to travel to the US right now if I weren't already from here

bayarearefugee 2y ago
Yeah even if you remove politics from the equation (which is impossible to actually do of course), I wouldn't travel to the US as an outsider just for the practical realities of the personal hardship it might cause, especially if you ever said a single negative thing about the current administration or Israel on social media or you happen to be brown and have tattoos. (For context I am a US citizen living in the US, and terribly embarrassed to admit this because holy shit we've really dropped the ball)
- zmgsabst 2y ago
  What’s the comparison?
stephenr 2y ago
Based on the news I've seen I'm not sure being from there is a good reason to travel there either.
throwaway657656 2y ago
US citizens may not want to travel internationally because they don't trust US customs and border agents upon their return. About 20 years ago a customs agent asked me, "are you thanking the lord Jesus Christ that you have returned safely to America". You just tell them what they wanted to hear and you were fine. Now if I am not mistaken, they can demand you unlock your phone which might show you were at a Tesla Takedown rally, or purchased a movie ticket to No Other Land, or whatever else is deemed verboten. I am unclear how long a citizen can be detained/delayed by a customs agent without cause.
- throwaway290 2y ago
  Reminds me of this guy who had TTP revoked next day after he posted how US is becoming similar to PRC: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHwEjGazRKx https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHwEjGazRKx I thought why do you care, this is just a fast lane but your comment was enlightening... (I am sure based on other recent cases they would totally revoke his visa if he was not a citizen already)
praptak 2y ago
Being from there only means they can't deport you or deny entry indefinitely, right?
- _nalply 2y ago
  The thing is, you sound hopeful, which I think you should find worrying by itself. To be explicit: You feel the chilling effect. Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilling_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilling_effect) says: > [...] a chilling effect is the inhibition or discouragement of the legitimate exercise of natural and legal rights by the threat of legal sanction. A chilling effect may be caused by legal actions such as the passing of a law, the decision of a court, or the threat of a lawsuit; any legal action that would cause people to hesitate to exercise a legitimate right (freedom of speech or otherwise) for fear of legal repercussions. In other words: A chilling effect is when people are scared to use their rights because they fear legal trouble. This can happen because of new laws, court rulings, or threats of lawsuits. It makes people hesitate to do something they’re normally allowed to do. You are wondering whether to go abroad. BOOM.
- patagurbon 2y ago
  Multiple senior leaders in Trump’s White House, including old school republicans like Rubio have floated deporting American citizens to El Salvador. I would not want to be the person at the center of those court cases
  - archagon 2y ago
    Especially if you’re already shaved and rotting in that prison in defiance of an injunction.
Gibbon1 2y ago
I ain't leaving California any time soon either.

gbraad 2y ago

Same happens for Europeans; they do not want to travel to the US. Even some embassies call for caution, like Germany and the UK due to border/visa issues that happened.

zeagle 2y ago

Trade dispute? Well that is one way to call it. The threats of annexation (to us, Greenland, Panama…) general disrespect, news of people being held at the border for days and then deported, all with ongoing support for the party doing this that ran on this platform is something is else.

zmgsabst 2y ago
Is it really? This seems a pretty obvious outcome of foreign allies constantly negging us for supporting their defense and international organizations taking advantage of the US while citizens are undermined at home. Progressive managerialism failed to regulate its excesses — and this is what it looks like when that machinery breaks.
- swarnie 2y ago
  The US dictated the rules of the modern world and have seemingly been happy with them for the last 80 years. Everyone is fine if you want a change, go back to your own country, stop trying to be World Police and focus on domestic issues for a few years. What we aren't happy about is the constant threats of invasion and subjugation.
  - zmgsabst 2y ago
    > The US dictated the rules of the modern world and have seemingly been happy with them for the last 80 years. The US isn’t a homogeneous entity: for at least 40 years (since the 1980s) there’s been a sharp divide between the general populace and the elites. Unfortunately, this wasn’t corrected until it became overwhelming resentment. You can look at the Seattle WTO riots for an example. > Everyone is fine if you want a change, go back to your own country, stop trying to be World Police and focus on domestic issues for a few years. NATO et al have repeatedly complained about just that. > What we aren't happy about is the constant threats of invasion and subjugation. Neither were Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. What’s shocking to Canada and EU is not that the US has changed, but realizing where they stand in the world outside of a US supported alliance. The US is merely applying its policy from the past 80 years within its North American sphere of influence (ie, Canada, Greenland, Panama).

ggm 2y ago

> A 10 per cent drop in Canada-U.S. travel would risk 14,000 American job losses and US$2.1 billion in lost spending, the association estimates. So it's a large-ish visible economic impact but probably distributed over the surface so not felt as an apex problem in ways which will strongly inform the US side of things. If enough of it converts to domestic tourism there will be improvements in consumer spending also fairly widely distributed but the Canadian government may be more motivated to quantify this.

sanswork 2y ago
It wouldn't be that widely distributed the majority will be in Florida and Arizona if the snowbirds look elsewhere. Border cities used to cross border shopping trips will also be impacted. I would be surprised if the drop is that low too, just about every Canadian I know is avoiding travel south unless it's already been paid for.
- ggm 2y ago
  The article quantifies the cost at 10% but the actual decline in flight is 70% so it's "do the maths" I doubt 70% will sustain but its certainly billions.
  - gizmo686 2y ago
    I wonder if there is a discrepency between the numbers for "travel" and "flights". The US and Canada share a large land border. I would imagine that people who cross at a land border would be more stable in their patterns. Land travelers are much more restricted in where they can go, and more likely to have regular destinations they make habits out of.
    - youngtaff 2y ago
      Land crossings in Feb 2025 were down 500,000 on Fed ‘24 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/decline-travellers-driving-from-canada-u-s-february https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/decline-travellers-driv...

fulafel 2y ago

The wider context seems missing: Rapid ramping down of fossil fuel based air travel is needed to mitigate the climate disaster.

TheSpiceIsLife 2y ago
If we've got data, let's go with the data. Aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global CO² emissions. https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions Rapidly ramping down fossil fuel based air travel will have approximately no effect on climate.
- fulafel 2y ago
  From your link: "Although CO2 gets most of the attention, it accounts for less than half of this warming. Two-thirds come from non-CO2 forcings." So it's much over 5%. All of transport sector emissions makes up 20%. The other subsectors are decarbonising, but there's no tech solution in sight for air travel in the needed timeframe. And air travel is growing alarmingly quickly (doubled between 2006 and 2019). All the individual slices of the pie we can tackle are pretty small, aviation is one of the bigger ones. We can't keep subdividing and then concluding for each one that it's too small to matter.
  - TheSpiceIsLife 2y ago
    Also from my link: In 1990, one passenger-kilometer would emit 357 grams of CO2. By 2019, this had more than halved to 157 grams.
    - fulafel 2y ago
      That's true, but of course this is a much slower rate of improvement (30 years to 2x) than the growth of air travel, and has slowed in recent years[1] since seat density and seatu utilization can't be increased much more without radical approaches like sedating people and stacking them like cargo. [1] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/future-air-mobility-blog/fuel-efficiency-why-airlines-need-to-switch-to-more-ambitious-measures https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/ou...

ChrisArchitect 2y ago

[dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43485649

theGeatZhopa 2y ago

Stay at home. Don't by us. This is what me as a german will do. I can't ditch goog or WhatsApp. The other apps I do not use. So, alternatives are less, but Europe will regulate it soon with TERIFFS tariffs so fearsome that you can't call them tariffs anymore, but rather terror-ifs. Tariffs on digital goods. Thank you Europe.

buyucu 2y ago

I cancelled a business trip to the US and did virtual meeting instead. No way I'm going to a country that detains people on the border for no reason.

swat535 2y ago

I’m not dismissing the trade issue but I’d like to point out that the currency exchange rate is really bad right now, I’m not sure many Canadians can afford to travel these days. Our economy is not doing so hot with raising rents and grocery prices, people are struggling. I think there are multiple factors at play here but Trump’s rhetoric is certainly not helping.