4 ms·

GDPNow first quarter of 2025: -2.8% (seasonally adjusted annual rate)

15 points by nabla9 2y ago

nabla9 2y ago
31-Jan Initial GDPNow 2025:Q1 forecast was +2.9%. Almost 6% drop in the estimate. Uncertainty about tariffs, etc. means nobody wants to invest. SM Manufacturing Index, and Construction spending sink.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Can’t call a recession until we look back, I cannot imagine consumer spending is going to hold up under this stress. Consumer debt defaults are rapidly rising while prices are going up in anticipation of tariffs. Something is going to break. (70% of the economy is consumer spending, 80% of employment is in services)
  - nabla9 2y ago
    If you look at the components of their model: 28-Mar Personal income & outlays -2.8% 7-Mar Retail trade: -2.1%
  - addicted 2y ago
    Tourism is gonna be hit. Education is gonna be hit (especially if the rumors that the US is canceling hundreds of student visas as we speak for crimes such as liking certain tweets). Exports are gonna be hit thanks to tariffs in raw materials and retaliatory tariffs by other countries. Government sector jobs will be hit. Retail will be hit due to tariffs. We are already seeing a reversal in sentiment and none of these impacts have actually been felt yet.
TradingPlaces 2y ago
That includes -4.8 percentage points from net trade which comes from two sources: 1) Importers getting ahead of tariffs in Jan and Feb. 2) -2.3 percentage points of the net trade deficit estimate was from imported non-monetary gold, because Americans want portable wealth right now. The thing to be concerned about is that real consumption is up only 0.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized in this estimate. This is two-thirds of GDP. Investment is actually pretty strong, especially equipment (GPU servers).
delfinom 2y ago
Not to worry, the commerce secretary is already working to make the official GDP number for the quarter be bigly positive. (Pretty sure they also fired the committee that contributed to reviewing the data)
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
“The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent.” The best output for the model is the above, not the raw figure, because in January the gold market got weird [1]. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-13/gold-is-worth-more-in-new-york https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-13/gold-i...

15 points by nabla9 2y ago

31-Jan Initial GDPNow 2025:Q1 forecast was +2.9%. Almost 6% drop in the estimate. Uncertainty about tariffs, etc. means nobody wants to invest. SM Manufacturing Index, and Construction spending sink.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Can’t call a recession until we look back, I cannot imagine consumer spending is going to hold up under this stress. Consumer debt defaults are rapidly rising while prices are going up in anticipation of tariffs. Something is going to break. (70% of the economy is consumer spending, 80% of employment is in services)
- nabla9 2y ago
  If you look at the components of their model: 28-Mar Personal income & outlays -2.8% 7-Mar Retail trade: -2.1%
- addicted 2y ago
  Tourism is gonna be hit. Education is gonna be hit (especially if the rumors that the US is canceling hundreds of student visas as we speak for crimes such as liking certain tweets). Exports are gonna be hit thanks to tariffs in raw materials and retaliatory tariffs by other countries. Government sector jobs will be hit. Retail will be hit due to tariffs. We are already seeing a reversal in sentiment and none of these impacts have actually been felt yet.

TradingPlaces 2y ago

That includes -4.8 percentage points from net trade which comes from two sources: 1) Importers getting ahead of tariffs in Jan and Feb. 2) -2.3 percentage points of the net trade deficit estimate was from imported non-monetary gold, because Americans want portable wealth right now. The thing to be concerned about is that real consumption is up only 0.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized in this estimate. This is two-thirds of GDP. Investment is actually pretty strong, especially equipment (GPU servers).

delfinom 2y ago

Not to worry, the commerce secretary is already working to make the official GDP number for the quarter be bigly positive. (Pretty sure they also fired the committee that contributed to reviewing the data)

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

“The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent.” The best output for the model is the above, not the raw figure, because in January the gold market got weird [1]. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-13/gold-is-worth-more-in-new-york https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-13/gold-i...