> but seems highly unlikely How is this judgment reached? What's the probability distribution assumed for the probability of life arising, and how was that es

> but seems highly unlikely How is this judgment reached? What's the probability distribution assumed for the probability of life arising, and how was that estimated? This is nothing more than a personal feeling on your part dressed up to try to make it seem to be something that isn't completely subjective. This whole subject, touching as it does on existential questions, is rife with opportunities for bias, so it's very important to be rigorous and explicit in reasoning, not resort to "feelings", or in arguments that end being exercises in rationalization of those feelings. What one must do in such a situation is seriously question ones own assertions. "How do I know that this is true?" "What would look different if this weren't true?" So many seem to just voice their intuition and stop thinking. I want you to imagine an alternative world, let's call it Schmearth. It's inhabited by Schmumans, orbited by the Schmoon. It's in a universe much like ours, but the laws of physics are such that OoL has a very difficult step, so Schmearth is the only life bearing planet in their universe. My question to you: what would be different that they would see that we do not (or vice versa)? If you can't identify such a thing, how do we know we aren't ourselves living on Schmearth?