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60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
by jeffbee 2y ago
60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
- lucianbr 2y agoThat's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that. Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots. It sounds pretty near to impossible. These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it. How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?
- jeffbee 2y agoI'm not sure about any of these questions, I am just pointing out how wrong it is to suggest that a -60% economic setback is historically fatal. The economy of Myanmar increased 8-fold in the last 30 years.
- quesera 2y agoMathematically valid, but... If Myanmar had a stable and reliably growing economy, the world would be a different place. Turning Myanmar into a country with a stable economy that could grow at 5% annually would be worthy of a Nobel Prize in economics. Practically, recovery costs in the neighborhood of 60% of Myanmar's GDP represents many decades of development. Or enormous foreign aid from China. I'm not sure how valuable Myanmar is to China though.
- v3ss0n 2y agoWe almost had that chance back in 2010-2020.. only if coup and COVID didn't happened..
- sph 2y ago60% loss in GDP is roughly 60% loss in population. You don't recoup citizens in 10 years with 5% growth.