4 ms·

60-70% loss in GDP would mean the literal end of the country, it's a ludicrously large figure no one could ever rebuild from. This is a 7.7 earthquake; it proba

by sph 2y ago

60-70% loss in GDP would mean the literal end of the country, it's a ludicrously large figure no one could ever rebuild from. This is a 7.7 earthquake; it probably is 6–7% GBP which is still significant.

deleted 2y ago
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jeffbee 2y ago
60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
- lucianbr 2y ago
  That's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that. Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots. It sounds pretty near to impossible. These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it. How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    I'm not sure about any of these questions, I am just pointing out how wrong it is to suggest that a -60% economic setback is historically fatal. The economy of Myanmar increased 8-fold in the last 30 years.
- quesera 2y ago
  Mathematically valid, but... If Myanmar had a stable and reliably growing economy, the world would be a different place. Turning Myanmar into a country with a stable economy that could grow at 5% annually would be worthy of a Nobel Prize in economics. Practically, recovery costs in the neighborhood of 60% of Myanmar's GDP represents many decades of development. Or enormous foreign aid from China. I'm not sure how valuable Myanmar is to China though.
  - v3ss0n 2y ago
    We almost had that chance back in 2010-2020.. only if coup and COVID didn't happened..
- sph 2y ago
  60% loss in GDP is roughly 60% loss in population. You don't recoup citizens in 10 years with 5% growth.
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    You're suggesting this earthquake killed thirty million people?
    - sph 2y ago
      No i'm suggesting that the earthquake didn't kill that many people, so it cannot have lost 60% GDP which makes no sense whatsoever.
quickthrowman 2y ago
It’s only $40B, Myanmar is exceptionally poor. For example, AAPL’s net profit is higher than Myanmar’s GDP. I’m pretty sure China can dig around in their couch cushions and help them out, the military junta is heavily reliant on China already. Probably the ‘shadow GDP’ of Myanmar from heroin and scam call centers is higher than the official GDP, but that’s pure speculation on my part.
- miohtama 2y ago
  Not Myarmar, but in Cambodia scams are soon or already larger business than official GDP https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/laos-and-cambodia-dont-include-scam-industries-in-their-gdp-data-should-they/ https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/laos-and-cambodia-dont-inclu...
v3ss0n 2y ago
it is possbile , we are at literal end of the country with Junta bombing whatever they want and Revolution forces fighting to save the country .

by sph 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

jeffbee 2y ago

60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.

lucianbr 2y ago
That's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that. Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots. It sounds pretty near to impossible. These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it. How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?
- jeffbee 2y ago
  I'm not sure about any of these questions, I am just pointing out how wrong it is to suggest that a -60% economic setback is historically fatal. The economy of Myanmar increased 8-fold in the last 30 years.
quesera 2y ago
Mathematically valid, but... If Myanmar had a stable and reliably growing economy, the world would be a different place. Turning Myanmar into a country with a stable economy that could grow at 5% annually would be worthy of a Nobel Prize in economics. Practically, recovery costs in the neighborhood of 60% of Myanmar's GDP represents many decades of development. Or enormous foreign aid from China. I'm not sure how valuable Myanmar is to China though.
- v3ss0n 2y ago
  We almost had that chance back in 2010-2020.. only if coup and COVID didn't happened..
sph 2y ago
60% loss in GDP is roughly 60% loss in population. You don't recoup citizens in 10 years with 5% growth.
- jeffbee 2y ago
  You're suggesting this earthquake killed thirty million people?
  - sph 2y ago
    No i'm suggesting that the earthquake didn't kill that many people, so it cannot have lost 60% GDP which makes no sense whatsoever.

quickthrowman 2y ago

It’s only $40B, Myanmar is exceptionally poor. For example, AAPL’s net profit is higher than Myanmar’s GDP. I’m pretty sure China can dig around in their couch cushions and help them out, the military junta is heavily reliant on China already. Probably the ‘shadow GDP’ of Myanmar from heroin and scam call centers is higher than the official GDP, but that’s pure speculation on my part.

miohtama 2y ago
Not Myarmar, but in Cambodia scams are soon or already larger business than official GDP https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/laos-and-cambodia-dont-include-scam-industries-in-their-gdp-data-should-they/ https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/laos-and-cambodia-dont-inclu...

v3ss0n 2y ago

it is possbile , we are at literal end of the country with Junta bombing whatever they want and Revolution forces fighting to save the country .