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these bits and pieces of financial news (eg. 'An MIT Blackjack team perspective on the economy' on HN today) make it difficult to get the whole picture of how s
by leonroy 18y ago
these bits and pieces of financial news (eg. 'An MIT Blackjack team perspective on the economy' on HN today) make it difficult to get the whole picture of how serious an economic contraction we're going to see in the next few years. It also is difficult (for myself at least) to understand what this means for the average guy on the street. Are we talking Depression era job/food lines? Something worse?
- davidw 18y agoIf anyone could actually predict that... the would keep it to themselves and make a fortune. Of course, no one really can, so we get lots of hand waving, theories and speculation, some of which are more reasoned and intelligent than others. We also get lots of people trying to Prove a Point about their particular political/economic views.
- yummyfajitas 18y agoForget predicting the future, there is plenty of data on the present. Here are some nice graphs: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/re...
- dogbait 18y agoThanks for the v. useful link (and like your website :)
- davi 18y agoMost disasters can be predicted at some point before they strike, by at least some subset of observers. Your comment implies that in the case of a disastrous implosion of the global economy, the window of predictability would be so narrow that there would be no point in trying to anticipate it; and that while we wait to see what's going to happen, there's no use listening to the ongoing chatter of "hand waving, theories and speculation". But is that really true? I think it behooves us to keep evaluating information as it streams in. (Attempting to discount the speculators and "people trying to Prove a Point, as always.)
- eru 18y ago"Most disasters can be predicted at some point before they strike, by at least some subset of observers." The lucky ones?
- davi 18y agoThe ones lucky enough to interpret their data stream correctly.
- eru 18y agoSure. But saying that some people can predict something, does not mean that it is 'predictable'.
- davi 18y agoI think what you're getting at is that there's a distinction between predicting well, vs. just guessing, and having your guess turn out to be correct. This is true. In the case of repeatable events, over time, the former will do better than chance and the latter will do as well as chance. I'm talking about the former, not the latter.
- davidw 18y agoYou should read "The Black Swan" - the book has flaws, but he does make a convincing case for people being simply unable to predict certain things. They make up stories afterwards, but those stories aren't able to predict the next big, unexpected thing.
- davi 18y agoUgh, I can see my writing has been very unclear in this thread. Anyway thanks for the recommendation.