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China's population is already declining, and that decline is accelerating. They are projected to lose 100M people by 2050, and 500M by 2075. Given their aversio

China's population is already declining, and that decline is accelerating. They are projected to lose 100M people by 2050, and 500M by 2075. Given their aversion to immigration, demand will continue to plummet for those unoccupied properties. This is clearly the end of their property boom. This was one of the last options left to ordinary Chinese to build wealth. Their stock market is little more than a slot machine. It is encouraging what we see with their EV boom, but a car industry alone cannot sustain a nation with declining population levels. China has sold so few technological innovations over the decades that I do not see them innovating their way out of this.

grumpy-de-sre 2y ago
We are all rapidly aging and pretty much no-one is bringing in anywhere near enough net contributing migrants to offset this. What the immigration argument overlooks is domestic migration, particularly urbanization. It's zero sum for sure and rural communities will be hollowed out but I think there's a real possibility that they'll be able to soak up much of the excess capacity in the coming decade. Urbanization massively increases productivity, reduces infrastructure costs etc. There's a real economic beauty to scale. Downside it suppresses fertility even further. Elder care will be a real nightmare though, but the Chinese elders are willing to accept far more modest conditions and outcomes than their western counterparts. Confucian values for better or worse really help here. It could go either way at this point.