4 ms·

shakemap: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/shakemap/intensity https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s... Manda

by baq 2y ago

shakemap: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/shakemap/intensity https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s... Mandalay looks to be almost exactly in the center of the worst of it...

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
It also appears to have gone through the heart of Tatmadaw territory [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%8...
- v3ss0n 2y ago
  Yeah several Junta building destroyed including notorious tataroo military Air field which is responsible for bombing several hundred of innocent civilian's.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    How is the state of the various other bridges beside Saigang (eg. Chauk, Pakokku, Magway, Pyay, Tigyaing)? Much of Saigang, Rakhine, and Kachin might be cut off from the rest of Myanmar, dramatically affecting logistics (though I think land logistics to Rakhine have already largely ended before the earthquake) Also, I hope your family hasn't been drastically impacted.
    - v3ss0n 2y ago
      Thanks a lot! My family is fine in Yangon. Yangon didn't got hit much. Bangkok got hit harder. Several bridges collasped in Sagaing and Mandalay.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > Thanks a lot! My family is fine in Yangon. Yangon didn't got hit much Glad to hear! That is a massive silver lining!
brenainn 2y ago
and PAGER: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/pager https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s...
- baq 2y ago
  > Estimated economic losses are 6-70% GDP of Burma. 6-70% holy crap what a range.
  - simonebrunozzi 2y ago
    Probably meant 60-70%
    - baq 2y ago
      I hope not... I'd rather this was indeed 6-70 with a mode much closer to 6 than 70
    - sph 2y ago
      60-70% loss in GDP would mean the literal end of the country, it's a ludicrously large figure no one could ever rebuild from. This is a 7.7 earthquake; it probably is 6–7% GBP which is still significant.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - jeffbee 2y ago
        60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
        lucianbr 2y ago
        That's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that. Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots. It sounds pretty near to impossible. These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it. How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?
dendrite9 2y ago
That straight line in the map doesn't look like the maps for any earthquakes I've felt. It looks like it was on the Sagaing Fault which is a different type of fault from the ones I've experienced. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagaing_Fault https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagaing_Fault
- baq 2y ago
  quoting from the 'Hazard' section: > The length of fault running 260 km (160 mi) from 19.2°N to 21.5°N, on the Meiktila segment, is designated a seismic gap due to the absence of major earthquake ruptures since at least 1897. At least 2 m (6 ft 7 in) of slip has accumulated along the fault corresponding to a magnitude 7.9 earthquake. Science did pretty well here with the magnitude. Wonder how much more research is needed to be able to predict an event let's say a full minute before it happens...
- dnawy 2y ago
  2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake has a ShakeMap similar to this event [1]; We often think of the epicenter as a single point in earth where the energy then radiates outward. In reality, a fault is more similar to line [2]. The energy radiates outward around the entire fault line. (Note: since earthquake magnitude is correlated with the amount of area moved, it is safe to assume that larger earthquake will have larger fault rupture) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_earthquakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_eart... [2] https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-022-01650-1 https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118...
  - SpicyUme 2y ago
    Interesting, the idea that a fault is a more of a line source makes sense it is hard for me to think of a way to have a single point source slip with enough energy. I guess I've thought in subduction faults the depth of the slip might explain why there is a point source. For example in the Pacific Northwest the earthquake from the Juan de Fuca plate look to be substantially deeper than this one. (50km vs 10km) Of course I expect the depth from today to be preliminary and be adjusted later, I can see the extent of red region in the shakemap changed to be longer from when I looked at it an hour or two ago. Do you know if the line source model comes from having more and better seismographs or has there been a change in how people think about the motion of a fault in an earthquake?
araes 2y ago
That shakemap looks really suspicious, relative to the damage being reported in Thailand, especially Bangkok. 600 miles away (~1000 km) and the shakemap's reporting numbers like 3 to 4 on the intensity scale. When they reported the skyscraper collapsing in Thailand, at first I thought it was Chiang Mai near the border of Myanmar, not Bangkok 600 miles away. For Americans, that's like the big one hits the Cali fault, and skyscrapers are falling down in Salt Lake City or Phoenix. Wonder whether that's just automated simulation output, rather than actual measurements from stations? Numbers 3 and 4: 3 - Felt noticeably indoors, especially in tops of buildings, yet many do not even notice there's an earthquake. 4 - Felt indoors by many, felt outside by few. Sensation like heavy truck striking a building. Bangkok's reporting sensations, crowd behavior, and events more like a 6 to 7. Everybody runs, furniture moves, plaster falls, considerable damage to poorly built (partially finished) structures. A 3-4 is like, you barely notice, or think a really heavy vehicle just crashed or something. Not, everybody in town runs in panic, describes all the ceilings collapsing, cracks in walls afterward. [1][2][3][4] Expect there's probably going to be some re-evaluation of the magnitude and scale of the earthquake based on what was actually reported by observers, cameras, and damage afterward. They're reporting slight damage and cracks even in relatively well constructed buildings. Edit: This story from ChannelNewsAsia in Singapore has camera footage from somebody on the ground near the skyscraper collapse. Visibly shaking the camera holder. [5] [1] Intensity, Text Descriptions: https://sciencefest.indiana.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mmi_table-Elizabeth-Sherrill.jpg https://sciencefest.indiana.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/m... [2] Semi-common Cone Chart with Energy Comparison: https://basecampconnect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/eartquake20frequency20and20destructive20power.jpg https://basecampconnect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/eartq... [3] Japanese Chart with Pictures: https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*Ca_yV0l_zkWiFtgRttb4sA.jpeg https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*Ca_yV0l_zkWiFtg... [4] Another Picture Chart: https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/Earthquake%20Intensity%20Scale%20%28Transparent%20PNG%20for%20Print%20and%20Web%29.png https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/... [5] ChannelNewsAsia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/massive-quake-kills-nearly-150-myanmar-thailand-5030921 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/massive-quake-kills-nea...
- baq 2y ago

by baq 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

It also appears to have gone through the heart of Tatmadaw territory [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%8...

v3ss0n 2y ago
Yeah several Junta building destroyed including notorious tataroo military Air field which is responsible for bombing several hundred of innocent civilian's.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  How is the state of the various other bridges beside Saigang (eg. Chauk, Pakokku, Magway, Pyay, Tigyaing)? Much of Saigang, Rakhine, and Kachin might be cut off from the rest of Myanmar, dramatically affecting logistics (though I think land logistics to Rakhine have already largely ended before the earthquake) Also, I hope your family hasn't been drastically impacted.
  - v3ss0n 2y ago
    Thanks a lot! My family is fine in Yangon. Yangon didn't got hit much. Bangkok got hit harder. Several bridges collasped in Sagaing and Mandalay.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Thanks a lot! My family is fine in Yangon. Yangon didn't got hit much Glad to hear! That is a massive silver lining!

brenainn 2y ago

and PAGER: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/pager https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s...

baq 2y ago
> Estimated economic losses are 6-70% GDP of Burma. 6-70% holy crap what a range.
- simonebrunozzi 2y ago
  Probably meant 60-70%
  - baq 2y ago
    I hope not... I'd rather this was indeed 6-70 with a mode much closer to 6 than 70
  - sph 2y ago
    60-70% loss in GDP would mean the literal end of the country, it's a ludicrously large figure no one could ever rebuild from. This is a 7.7 earthquake; it probably is 6–7% GBP which is still significant.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - jeffbee 2y ago
      60% loss can be recouped by 10 years of compounding 5% growth.
      - lucianbr 2y ago
        That's assuming otherwise zero growth, or other nations standing still or stuff like that. Also, 10 years of constant 5% growth is a lot to ask for in general. Maybe not impossible, but really hard. Now, think that you need to have 5% growth in the first year after the earthquake, in a devastated nation. Infrastructure destroyed, people killed. Lots. It sounds pretty near to impossible. These numbers have some meaning you know. It's easy to type "5% growth". Much, much harder to actually achieve it. How is the dead part of the population being replaced in this scenario? Who is achieving this growth if the population is decimated?

dendrite9 2y ago

That straight line in the map doesn't look like the maps for any earthquakes I've felt. It looks like it was on the Sagaing Fault which is a different type of fault from the ones I've experienced. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagaing_Fault https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagaing_Fault

baq 2y ago
quoting from the 'Hazard' section: > The length of fault running 260 km (160 mi) from 19.2°N to 21.5°N, on the Meiktila segment, is designated a seismic gap due to the absence of major earthquake ruptures since at least 1897. At least 2 m (6 ft 7 in) of slip has accumulated along the fault corresponding to a magnitude 7.9 earthquake. Science did pretty well here with the magnitude. Wonder how much more research is needed to be able to predict an event let's say a full minute before it happens...
dnawy 2y ago
2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake has a ShakeMap similar to this event [1]; We often think of the epicenter as a single point in earth where the energy then radiates outward. In reality, a fault is more similar to line [2]. The energy radiates outward around the entire fault line. (Note: since earthquake magnitude is correlated with the amount of area moved, it is safe to assume that larger earthquake will have larger fault rupture) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_earthquakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_eart... [2] https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-022-01650-1 https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118...
- SpicyUme 2y ago
  Interesting, the idea that a fault is a more of a line source makes sense it is hard for me to think of a way to have a single point source slip with enough energy. I guess I've thought in subduction faults the depth of the slip might explain why there is a point source. For example in the Pacific Northwest the earthquake from the Juan de Fuca plate look to be substantially deeper than this one. (50km vs 10km) Of course I expect the depth from today to be preliminary and be adjusted later, I can see the extent of red region in the shakemap changed to be longer from when I looked at it an hour or two ago. Do you know if the line source model comes from having more and better seismographs or has there been a change in how people think about the motion of a fault in an earthquake?

araes 2y ago

That shakemap looks really suspicious, relative to the damage being reported in Thailand, especially Bangkok. 600 miles away (~1000 km) and the shakemap's reporting numbers like 3 to 4 on the intensity scale. When they reported the skyscraper collapsing in Thailand, at first I thought it was Chiang Mai near the border of Myanmar, not Bangkok 600 miles away. For Americans, that's like the big one hits the Cali fault, and skyscrapers are falling down in Salt Lake City or Phoenix. Wonder whether that's just automated simulation output, rather than actual measurements from stations? Numbers 3 and 4: 3 - Felt noticeably indoors, especially in tops of buildings, yet many do not even notice there's an earthquake. 4 - Felt indoors by many, felt outside by few. Sensation like heavy truck striking a building. Bangkok's reporting sensations, crowd behavior, and events more like a 6 to 7. Everybody runs, furniture moves, plaster falls, considerable damage to poorly built (partially finished) structures. A 3-4 is like, you barely notice, or think a really heavy vehicle just crashed or something. Not, everybody in town runs in panic, describes all the ceilings collapsing, cracks in walls afterward. [1][2][3][4] Expect there's probably going to be some re-evaluation of the magnitude and scale of the earthquake based on what was actually reported by observers, cameras, and damage afterward. They're reporting slight damage and cracks even in relatively well constructed buildings. Edit: This story from ChannelNewsAsia in Singapore has camera footage from somebody on the ground near the skyscraper collapse. Visibly shaking the camera holder. [5] [1] Intensity, Text Descriptions: https://sciencefest.indiana.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mmi_table-Elizabeth-Sherrill.jpg https://sciencefest.indiana.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/m... [2] Semi-common Cone Chart with Energy Comparison: https://basecampconnect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/eartquake20frequency20and20destructive20power.jpg https://basecampconnect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/eartq... [3] Japanese Chart with Pictures: https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*Ca_yV0l_zkWiFtgRttb4sA.jpeg https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*Ca_yV0l_zkWiFtg... [4] Another Picture Chart: https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/Earthquake%20Intensity%20Scale%20%28Transparent%20PNG%20for%20Print%20and%20Web%29.png https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/... [5] ChannelNewsAsia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/massive-quake-kills-nearly-150-myanmar-thailand-5030921 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/massive-quake-kills-nea...

baq 2y ago