4 ms·

Great. Let's end the war in Ukraine and start WW3 with Iran.

theultdev 2y ago
There's a huge middle ground between WW3 and allowing Iran to fund and coordinate terrorism. A strike on them to correct their malicious behavior is far away from a global war. I didn't see much concern about Ukraine leading to WW3 until Trump allowed peace talks to start. During the Biden administration peace was not discussed and not even considered an option by many.
- elorant 2y ago
  Any type of action has a reaction. Iran can target US military bases all around Middle East. They can damage tankers passing the Persian Gulf causing havoc to worldwide markets.
  - theultdev 2y ago
    They already are damaging ships via proxy support of Houthis. Deterrence sometimes means applying force. Iran won't be able to do anything if the US actually applies force to them. And I highly doubt anyone will actually come to their defense, which is an ingredient for WW3.
    - aaomidi 2y ago
      Houthis had stopped their attacks on ships during the ceasefire. I think forcing Israel to maintaining their ceasefire is a significantly easier way of unblocking the water passageways. You know, with a bonus of preventing hundreds of people being killed everyday in Gaza too.
  - boredatoms 2y ago
    Iran has to be worried about being carpet bombed into nothingness though, so theres only so much they can escalate
- 1shooner 2y ago
  >I didn't see much concern about Ukraine leading to WW3 until Trump allowed peace talks to start. Trump has regularly used WW3 rhetoric about Ukraine: 2022: https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-warns-world-war-3-accidentally-sparked-ukraine-taiwan-conflict https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-warns-world-war-3-accide... 2023: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-world-war-iowa-waterloo-rally-1854035 https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-world-war-iowa-waterlo... 2024: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-ukraine-russia-kamala-harris-b2602079.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
  - theultdev 2y ago
    Obviously the person who started the peace talks was talking about Ukraine leading to WW3. I was talking about everyone that said the gist of "if we allow peace talks, Russia wins", mainly here. It's the sentiment that led to the war persisting for these last few years. No talks from the Biden admin, no public outrage, just support. And constant funding to continue it.
    - alabastervlog 2y ago
      > I was talking about everyone that said the gist of "if we allow peace talks, Russia wins", mainly here. I have never seen this... anywhere.
trhway 2y ago
[threat of] Hitting on Iran may stop the flow of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia and to the Houthis which would be helpful to the ending both wars. Edit: for the people, like the commenter below, who happens to be unaware about that major piece of the war (in particular these drones have been the main tool devastating Ukrainian infrastructure) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launched-8060-iran-developed-drones-during-war-2024-09-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-lau...
- MaxPock 2y ago
  Learning on HN that Russian war effort is dependent on Iranian missiles and drones .
  - Ancapistani 2y ago
    … and North Korean artillery shells.
    - dylan604 2y ago
      s/artillery shells/canon fodder/
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
UncleOxidant 2y ago
...without actually ending the war in Ukraine.
Buttons840 2y ago
What do you think is the most likely course of escalation leading to WW3? I'm not asking for much here, I just want any potential path of escalation, and everyone can judge for themselves how likely it is. If the US performs airstrikes against Iran, what can Iran do that would make WW3 more likely?
- elorant 2y ago
  Sure, here's one. Iran hits US military bases in UAE and Bahrain. Houthi rebels launch long-range missile attacks at Saudi Arabia's and UAE's oil installations. Hezbollah attacks Israel. At the strait of Hormuz Iran directly targets US and European oil tankers. US is left with no other choice than a large scale military mobilization in the area. You can take it from there.
  - Buttons840 2y ago
    Are you saying the US would respond to all that with a ground invasion in Iran? A ground invasion of Iran seems extremely difficult, and would be very unpopular, and it's still unclear how that would lead to a wider world conflict.
    - elorant 2y ago
      A ground invasion is an inevitability if you start bombing strategic installations.
      - Buttons840 2y ago
        Why? The US can just air strike anything forever without ever doing a ground invasion. What objective would the US be seeking that could only be achieved by a ground invasion?
        elorant 2y ago
        If you don't get boots on the ground you can't change the regime. Bombings alone would only weaken the infrastructure and probably lead local people to hate you even more. Plus in a conflict the opposite side retaliates. Once body bags start pilling back home the general public will demand an invasion.

There's a huge middle ground between WW3 and allowing Iran to fund and coordinate terrorism. A strike on them to correct their malicious behavior is far away from a global war. I didn't see much concern about Ukraine leading to WW3 until Trump allowed peace talks to start. During the Biden administration peace was not discussed and not even considered an option by many.

elorant 2y ago
Any type of action has a reaction. Iran can target US military bases all around Middle East. They can damage tankers passing the Persian Gulf causing havoc to worldwide markets.
- theultdev 2y ago
  They already are damaging ships via proxy support of Houthis. Deterrence sometimes means applying force. Iran won't be able to do anything if the US actually applies force to them. And I highly doubt anyone will actually come to their defense, which is an ingredient for WW3.
  - aaomidi 2y ago
    Houthis had stopped their attacks on ships during the ceasefire. I think forcing Israel to maintaining their ceasefire is a significantly easier way of unblocking the water passageways. You know, with a bonus of preventing hundreds of people being killed everyday in Gaza too.
- boredatoms 2y ago
  Iran has to be worried about being carpet bombed into nothingness though, so theres only so much they can escalate
1shooner 2y ago
>I didn't see much concern about Ukraine leading to WW3 until Trump allowed peace talks to start. Trump has regularly used WW3 rhetoric about Ukraine: 2022: https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-warns-world-war-3-accidentally-sparked-ukraine-taiwan-conflict https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-warns-world-war-3-accide... 2023: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-world-war-iowa-waterloo-rally-1854035 https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-world-war-iowa-waterlo... 2024: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-ukraine-russia-kamala-harris-b2602079.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
- theultdev 2y ago
  Obviously the person who started the peace talks was talking about Ukraine leading to WW3. I was talking about everyone that said the gist of "if we allow peace talks, Russia wins", mainly here. It's the sentiment that led to the war persisting for these last few years. No talks from the Biden admin, no public outrage, just support. And constant funding to continue it.
  - alabastervlog 2y ago
    > I was talking about everyone that said the gist of "if we allow peace talks, Russia wins", mainly here. I have never seen this... anywhere.

trhway 2y ago

[threat of] Hitting on Iran may stop the flow of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia and to the Houthis which would be helpful to the ending both wars. Edit: for the people, like the commenter below, who happens to be unaware about that major piece of the war (in particular these drones have been the main tool devastating Ukrainian infrastructure) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launched-8060-iran-developed-drones-during-war-2024-09-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-lau...

MaxPock 2y ago
Learning on HN that Russian war effort is dependent on Iranian missiles and drones .
- Ancapistani 2y ago
  … and North Korean artillery shells.
  - dylan604 2y ago
    s/artillery shells/canon fodder/
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]

UncleOxidant 2y ago

...without actually ending the war in Ukraine.

Buttons840 2y ago

What do you think is the most likely course of escalation leading to WW3? I'm not asking for much here, I just want any potential path of escalation, and everyone can judge for themselves how likely it is. If the US performs airstrikes against Iran, what can Iran do that would make WW3 more likely?

elorant 2y ago
Sure, here's one. Iran hits US military bases in UAE and Bahrain. Houthi rebels launch long-range missile attacks at Saudi Arabia's and UAE's oil installations. Hezbollah attacks Israel. At the strait of Hormuz Iran directly targets US and European oil tankers. US is left with no other choice than a large scale military mobilization in the area. You can take it from there.
- Buttons840 2y ago
  Are you saying the US would respond to all that with a ground invasion in Iran? A ground invasion of Iran seems extremely difficult, and would be very unpopular, and it's still unclear how that would lead to a wider world conflict.
  - elorant 2y ago
    A ground invasion is an inevitability if you start bombing strategic installations.
    - Buttons840 2y ago
      Why? The US can just air strike anything forever without ever doing a ground invasion. What objective would the US be seeking that could only be achieved by a ground invasion?
      - elorant 2y ago
        If you don't get boots on the ground you can't change the regime. Bombings alone would only weaken the infrastructure and probably lead local people to hate you even more. Plus in a conflict the opposite side retaliates. Once body bags start pilling back home the general public will demand an invasion.