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I looked into the presentation. (Demography versus Debt - https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/goodhart_presentation.pdf https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/
by gagan2020 2y ago
I looked into the presentation. (Demography versus Debt - https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/goodhart_presentation.pdf https://www.bis.org/events/conf160624/goodhart_presentation....)
That's good. There was one point that I missed.
> Rise in debt ratios offset by falling interest rates, so debt service ratios mostly stable, or even declining
- toomuchtodo 2y agoIf inflation is higher forward looking due to demographic compression, interest rates cannot fall. This is the crux of the potential debt trap.
- gagan2020 2y agoI agree with you. However, Inflation is resultant, not a fundamental thing that moves the pointer. Current, the Inflation scenario all over the world is because of Covid related quantitative easing. Problem is, quantitative easing as the instrument is misunderstood by politicians. It creates/accelerates further debt burden on future generations. And, that just accelerated this debt trap for many nations. The Demography dividend is already eroding fast. Natural Resources are already limited. So, Innovation is the only way out for nations. AI is a driver for that. May be, we will see new world order in this lifetime only.