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The software industry as a whole generates trillions of dollars every year. The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it’s only gett

The software industry as a whole generates trillions of dollars every year. The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it’s only getting better. It’s easily worth trillions with just normal speculation.

jjulius 2y ago
>The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it's only getting better. Do you have any data that supports this assertion and the associated upward trend?
- mountainriver 2y ago
  There is a lot of data to support this, most of it showing 20-50% efficiency gains. For a multi-trillion dollar industry that equates to potentially over a trillion dollars in efficiency in a single year. https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/#:~:text=,89 https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantify... https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-productivity/#:~:text=University%20of%20Pennsylvania%20www,increase%20in%20productivity https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-product... https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/unleashing-developer-productivity-with-generative-ai https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-i... https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon-codewhisperer https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon... https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-... https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 This isn't slowing down either, if anything its accelerating with reasoning models. Which means it likely under-valued actually. Lets not forget those numbers are just for software!
  - NBJack 2y ago
    Almost every citation here is research funded by a party selling something that just happens to be AI/ML. And they all have glowing reviews of their own products. Color me skeptical. The last, and perhaps somewhat respectable study surveyed....about 410 developers. On a 15 minute survey. Sent only to GitHub users.
    - mountainriver 2y ago
      Do you really not think this is true? In my own experience 50% is on the low end.

jjulius 2y ago

>The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it's only getting better. Do you have any data that supports this assertion and the associated upward trend?

mountainriver 2y ago
There is a lot of data to support this, most of it showing 20-50% efficiency gains. For a multi-trillion dollar industry that equates to potentially over a trillion dollars in efficiency in a single year. https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/#:~:text=,89 https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantify... https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-productivity/#:~:text=University%20of%20Pennsylvania%20www,increase%20in%20productivity https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-product... https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/unleashing-developer-productivity-with-generative-ai https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-i... https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon-codewhisperer https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon... https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-... https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 This isn't slowing down either, if anything its accelerating with reasoning models. Which means it likely under-valued actually. Lets not forget those numbers are just for software!
- NBJack 2y ago
  Almost every citation here is research funded by a party selling something that just happens to be AI/ML. And they all have glowing reviews of their own products. Color me skeptical. The last, and perhaps somewhat respectable study surveyed....about 410 developers. On a 15 minute survey. Sent only to GitHub users.
  - mountainriver 2y ago
    Do you really not think this is true? In my own experience 50% is on the low end.