4 ms·

It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. But ultimately I think Satya

by lukev 2y ago

It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. But ultimately I think Satya Nadella is right. We can speculate about the potential of these technologies all we want, but they are now here. If they are of value, then they'll start to significantly move the needle on GDP, beyond just the companies focused on creating them. If they don't, then it's hype.

mjr00 2y ago
> It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. I agree, but this feeling isn't anything new! This was the verbatim argument people used when insisting that blockchain was going to be a transformative technology. Bitcoin increased in value so dramatically and so quickly that it just felt like there had to be something valuable in the underlying technology, and corporations collectively through billions at it because they wanted to be the ones to exploit it first. It's very easy to look back and say "well of course it's different this time," but the exuberance for blockchain at the time really was very close to current AI hype levels. It's quite possible that AI becomes a useful tool in some relatively niche scenarios like software development while never delivering on the promise of replacing large swathes of skilled labor.
- hatefulmoron 2y ago
  >> It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. > I agree, but this feeling isn't anything new! This was the verbatim argument people used when insisting that blockchain was going to be a transformative technology. Not saying you're doing this, just a random thought: it's funny seeing how much effort is spent trying to predict the trajectory of LLMs by comparing them to the trajectories of other technologies. Someone will say that AI is like VR or blockchain, and then someone else will chime in that we're actually in the early days of something like the internet, etc, etc.. It's like, imagine I wanted to know if my idea was any good. Thinking about the idea itself is hard, instead I'll explain it to you and look at your reaction. Oh no, that's the face of someone who just had NFTs explained to them, I should halt immediately.
- Malcolmlisk 2y ago
  Of course is totally different this time. We are solving a lot of problems right now with llms, and pushing forward a lot of stagnant areas like in computer vision. So, yeah, this time is different. The chat bots are just the tip of the iceberg

by lukev 2y ago

mjr00 2y ago

> It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. I agree, but this feeling isn't anything new! This was the verbatim argument people used when insisting that blockchain was going to be a transformative technology. Bitcoin increased in value so dramatically and so quickly that it just felt like there had to be something valuable in the underlying technology, and corporations collectively through billions at it because they wanted to be the ones to exploit it first. It's very easy to look back and say "well of course it's different this time," but the exuberance for blockchain at the time really was very close to current AI hype levels. It's quite possible that AI becomes a useful tool in some relatively niche scenarios like software development while never delivering on the promise of replacing large swathes of skilled labor.

hatefulmoron 2y ago
>> It's really hard to accurately assess the possibilities granted by LLMs, because they just feel like they have so much potential. > I agree, but this feeling isn't anything new! This was the verbatim argument people used when insisting that blockchain was going to be a transformative technology. Not saying you're doing this, just a random thought: it's funny seeing how much effort is spent trying to predict the trajectory of LLMs by comparing them to the trajectories of other technologies. Someone will say that AI is like VR or blockchain, and then someone else will chime in that we're actually in the early days of something like the internet, etc, etc.. It's like, imagine I wanted to know if my idea was any good. Thinking about the idea itself is hard, instead I'll explain it to you and look at your reaction. Oh no, that's the face of someone who just had NFTs explained to them, I should halt immediately.
Malcolmlisk 2y ago
Of course is totally different this time. We are solving a lot of problems right now with llms, and pushing forward a lot of stagnant areas like in computer vision. So, yeah, this time is different. The chat bots are just the tip of the iceberg