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The end result of this wave looks increasingly like will get us an open web blogspam apocalypse, better search / information retrieval, better autocomplete for

The end result of this wave looks increasingly like will get us an open web blogspam apocalypse, better search / information retrieval, better autocomplete for coders. All useful (well useful to bloggers/spammers at least), not trillions of dollars in value generated though. Until a new architecture / approach takes root at least.

mountainriver 2y ago
The software industry as a whole generates trillions of dollars every year. The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it’s only getting better. It’s easily worth trillions with just normal speculation.
- jjulius 2y ago
  >The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it's only getting better. Do you have any data that supports this assertion and the associated upward trend?
  - mountainriver 2y ago
    There is a lot of data to support this, most of it showing 20-50% efficiency gains. For a multi-trillion dollar industry that equates to potentially over a trillion dollars in efficiency in a single year. https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/#:~:text=,89 https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantify... https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-productivity/#:~:text=University%20of%20Pennsylvania%20www,increase%20in%20productivity https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-product... https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/unleashing-developer-productivity-with-generative-ai https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-i... https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon-codewhisperer https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon... https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-... https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 This isn't slowing down either, if anything its accelerating with reasoning models. Which means it likely under-valued actually. Lets not forget those numbers are just for software!
    - NBJack 2y ago
      Almost every citation here is research funded by a party selling something that just happens to be AI/ML. And they all have glowing reviews of their own products. Color me skeptical. The last, and perhaps somewhat respectable study surveyed....about 410 developers. On a 15 minute survey. Sent only to GitHub users.
      - mountainriver 2y ago
        Do you really not think this is true? In my own experience 50% is on the low end.
alabastervlog 2y ago
It's looking a lot like it'll mostly be a tiny bits of value scattered around all over, amounting to quite a bit all together, but little in the way of acute disruption of... anything. Aside from ruining some things, as you note. The supposed Jobs quip about Dropbox being a "feature, not a company" comes to mind.
- Ekaros 2y ago
  Question to me really is how much value will there be for the big players creating these models. And well how much value for smaller players using some open source model to sell some project. Which the customers get something out of and hopefully even the end users... Maybe the extraction will be with AWS, Azure and GCP... After all hosting is most realistic place to generate costs that must be paid.
boringg 2y ago
"better search / information retrieval" - this is only temporary until people figure out either the SEO equivalent to get into models or AI agents start charging for product placement etc as they will absolutely need to add to their revenue model. Its the equivalent of all new tech that comes out of the valley -- amazing for early adopters etc then as it starts having to move past the user growth phase and into the monetizing phase the product loses its lustre and create space for new competitors/tech following the same paradigm. Rinse and repeat.

mountainriver 2y ago

The software industry as a whole generates trillions of dollars every year. The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it’s only getting better. It’s easily worth trillions with just normal speculation.

jjulius 2y ago
>The current state of AI makes coders significantly more efficient and it's only getting better. Do you have any data that supports this assertion and the associated upward trend?
- mountainriver 2y ago
  There is a lot of data to support this, most of it showing 20-50% efficiency gains. For a multi-trillion dollar industry that equates to potentially over a trillion dollars in efficiency in a single year. https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantifying-github-copilots-impact-on-developer-productivity-and-happiness/#:~:text=,89 https://github.blog/news-insights/research/research-quantify... https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-productivity/#:~:text=University%20of%20Pennsylvania%20www,increase%20in%20productivity https://www.infoq.com/news/2024/09/copilot-developer-product... https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/unleashing-developer-productivity-with-generative-ai https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-i... https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon-codewhisperer https://intuitive.cloud/blog/delve-into-the-depths-of-amazon... https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-... https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.17125 This isn't slowing down either, if anything its accelerating with reasoning models. Which means it likely under-valued actually. Lets not forget those numbers are just for software!
  - NBJack 2y ago
    Almost every citation here is research funded by a party selling something that just happens to be AI/ML. And they all have glowing reviews of their own products. Color me skeptical. The last, and perhaps somewhat respectable study surveyed....about 410 developers. On a 15 minute survey. Sent only to GitHub users.
    - mountainriver 2y ago
      Do you really not think this is true? In my own experience 50% is on the low end.

alabastervlog 2y ago

It's looking a lot like it'll mostly be a tiny bits of value scattered around all over, amounting to quite a bit all together, but little in the way of acute disruption of... anything. Aside from ruining some things, as you note. The supposed Jobs quip about Dropbox being a "feature, not a company" comes to mind.

Ekaros 2y ago
Question to me really is how much value will there be for the big players creating these models. And well how much value for smaller players using some open source model to sell some project. Which the customers get something out of and hopefully even the end users... Maybe the extraction will be with AWS, Azure and GCP... After all hosting is most realistic place to generate costs that must be paid.

boringg 2y ago

"better search / information retrieval" - this is only temporary until people figure out either the SEO equivalent to get into models or AI agents start charging for product placement etc as they will absolutely need to add to their revenue model. Its the equivalent of all new tech that comes out of the valley -- amazing for early adopters etc then as it starts having to move past the user growth phase and into the monetizing phase the product loses its lustre and create space for new competitors/tech following the same paradigm. Rinse and repeat.