Do you really feel this way? I feel like we're probably batting better than 50%, but plenty of revolutionary technologies never manifest, and more specifically

Do you really feel this way? I feel like we're probably batting better than 50%, but plenty of revolutionary technologies never manifest, and more specifically, there's such a wide swath of predictions. Sure I think LLM's will continue to get more useful, and they're helpful for programming, but the range of predictions runs the gamut from Software engineers may become a bit higher level like software managers/architects to, LLM's will bring on the end of scarcity and all white color jobs within the next 10 years. Like, how is some hesitance towards the possibilities of this specific implementation of AI "ignorant of the progress and disruption of history". A casual glance at the headlines around blockchain ~ 6 years ago should invite some skepticism. I think in some ways this is like looking at the difference between Camera only self-driving vs all the tools. I think it's quite possible LLM's look more like camera-only self-driving which will continue to get marginally better but may never solve the problem, and we're still waiting on the insight/architecture that will bring us full AGI.