3 ms·
How quickly do you think our weather models adapt? Our current models are built on top of decades of detailed weather research by tens of thousands of researche
by avianlyric 2y ago
How quickly do you think our weather models adapt? Our current models are built on top of decades of detailed weather research by tens of thousands of researchers around the world, and has involved the launch of some the largest satellites in space. All to help us try and understand how weather works.
Those models don't just "adapt", they're carefully and manually refined over time, slowly incorporating better physical models as they're developed, and better methods of collecting data as it become available. Climate change absolutely changes how weather systems interact faster than our models can adapt, primarily because we can only adapt models to changes after their accuracy degrades, and it becomes possible to start identifying potential weaknesses in the existing approaches.
You're example of seasonal temperature changes vs global average temperature increases, vastly underestimates how complicated weather models are, and how much impact changes in global climate systems (like the North Atlantic Current) can drastically impact local weather conditions. Weather models, like all models, will make assumptions about the behaviours of extremely large systems which aren't expected to change very much, or are very hard to measure in real-time. As those large systems change due to climate change, the assumptions made by weather models will grow increasingly incorrect. But that hard part is figuring our which assumption is now incorrect, not always easy to identity exactly what assumptions have been made, or accurately measure the difference between the assumption and reality.