3 ms·

Then use a thermometer. A city is a large area and can have variances of +/-10 degrees depending on where you are in the city.

genewitch 2y ago
a thermometer will tell me if it's going to freeze in 2 days? here's the scenario. I have started a bunch of seeds inside my house. I am waiting for the "last frost" as per the instructions on the seed packets. Now, how do i use a thermometer to tell if the last frost has passed? You need prediction models that can be accurate out at least a few days with temperature, and a 10% error "at freezing" means my plants either live or die, based on that error. there's no counterargument, here. "oh just cover the new plants" or "just wait longer" don't work, especially with larger gardens or "farms" or "homesteads". Most of us home-gamers just use environmental clues - number of bugs, buds on dogwood or pecan trees (native ones), when other trees flower. But this year i got a lesson that pecan trees get it wrong, too. They are in the process of leafing out and there was an unpredicted, non-forecast cold snap that took the temperature so close to 32.0F (0.00006C) that i think any plant not equipped for that would have died that night. Now, now i'm fairly certain there's no more frost chance, but it's just a guess. Now imagine i lived anywhere outside of the subtropics, like nebraska or montana and needed to plant food for livestock or whatever.
- bongodongobob 2y ago
  Forecasting isn't fine grained enough to get your backyard temp within 2 degrees. What your asking for is silly. The temp across your city is going to vary by more than 2 degrees every single day.
  - genewitch 2y ago
    you're still not listening. Once more, the forecast can't tell me with any certainty whether or not there is going to be a frost, specifically in my area, and apparently in Kansas City, as well. What i am asking for is what is promised by weather forecasters and the models. If it can't say with any certainty if it's going to freeze, it's completely worthless for this common circumstance. Like most people, i don't care if the forecast is 75F and it's actually 70F or 80F (or 68F), but what i do care about is a forecast for lows of 50F and it ends up being 32.15F. If you were a roofer and you were off by 18 degrees, you'd still be in prison.
    - bongodongobob 2y ago
      You're not listening either. Of course it can't. It's not fine grained enough to tell you what's happening in your back yard. Your back yard could be 30 degrees and 2 miles away it could be 35. You're asking for something impossible.
      - genewitch 2y ago
        > but what i do care about is a forecast for lows of 50F and it ends up being 32.15F. If you were a roofer and you were off by 18 degrees, you'd still be in prison.

genewitch 2y ago

a thermometer will tell me if it's going to freeze in 2 days? here's the scenario. I have started a bunch of seeds inside my house. I am waiting for the "last frost" as per the instructions on the seed packets. Now, how do i use a thermometer to tell if the last frost has passed? You need prediction models that can be accurate out at least a few days with temperature, and a 10% error "at freezing" means my plants either live or die, based on that error. there's no counterargument, here. "oh just cover the new plants" or "just wait longer" don't work, especially with larger gardens or "farms" or "homesteads". Most of us home-gamers just use environmental clues - number of bugs, buds on dogwood or pecan trees (native ones), when other trees flower. But this year i got a lesson that pecan trees get it wrong, too. They are in the process of leafing out and there was an unpredicted, non-forecast cold snap that took the temperature so close to 32.0F (0.00006C) that i think any plant not equipped for that would have died that night. Now, now i'm fairly certain there's no more frost chance, but it's just a guess. Now imagine i lived anywhere outside of the subtropics, like nebraska or montana and needed to plant food for livestock or whatever.

bongodongobob 2y ago
Forecasting isn't fine grained enough to get your backyard temp within 2 degrees. What your asking for is silly. The temp across your city is going to vary by more than 2 degrees every single day.
- genewitch 2y ago
  you're still not listening. Once more, the forecast can't tell me with any certainty whether or not there is going to be a frost, specifically in my area, and apparently in Kansas City, as well. What i am asking for is what is promised by weather forecasters and the models. If it can't say with any certainty if it's going to freeze, it's completely worthless for this common circumstance. Like most people, i don't care if the forecast is 75F and it's actually 70F or 80F (or 68F), but what i do care about is a forecast for lows of 50F and it ends up being 32.15F. If you were a roofer and you were off by 18 degrees, you'd still be in prison.
  - bongodongobob 2y ago
    You're not listening either. Of course it can't. It's not fine grained enough to tell you what's happening in your back yard. Your back yard could be 30 degrees and 2 miles away it could be 35. You're asking for something impossible.
    - genewitch 2y ago
      > but what i do care about is a forecast for lows of 50F and it ends up being 32.15F. If you were a roofer and you were off by 18 degrees, you'd still be in prison.