4 ms·

Tesla Full Self-Driving is stagnating after Elon said it is going exponential

17 points by zfg 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
cratermoon 2y ago
Remember when Elmo predicted Tesla will have Full Self-Driving in 2017, then 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024? Good times.
- ben_w 2y ago
  Mm. I was excited back then. Back in 2009, I sincerely expected that normal people would be able to buy cars that didn't even have a place to put a steering wheel by 2019. Even with all the improvements since then… well, Tesla reports the Cybercab will start production in 2026, but given how optimistic Musk is with timelines, even if that vehicle gets past the press prototypes we've seen, even if it passes all the regulations, even if the AI is good enough, I expect no earlier than 2028: https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/11/tesla-cybercab-to-debut-in-2026/ https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/11/tesla-cybercab-to-debut... Someone else might get there first, like Waymo selling what's currently a taxi, but I'm not optimistic any more.
- rvnx 2y ago
  https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/
taylodl 2y ago
If Tesla had focused on being an auto company rather than a shiny new object company and if Elon Musk had focused on being a business leader rather than whatever he's been doing the past few years, we'd be having a completely different discussion. As it is, Elon Musk has lost his mojo, people are finally realizing he's been lying for years, and Tesla has never had the opportunity to establish operational excellence. None of this is good for business and their sales numbers are reflecting that.
- sidibe 2y ago
  We'd be having a completely different discussion but Tesla would be a much less valuable company worth less than Toyota and others and Elon wouldn't be anywhere near the richest person in the world
  - taylodl 2y ago
    Sounds like you're saying Tesla has been a pump and dump stock all along.
    - Zigurd 2y ago
      It's been a meme stock with a very high percentage of individual investors all along. At first that was a brilliant way to get cheap capital. Also, cults are cheaper to build than conventional brand-building. It may have been the only way to build a real high-ish volume car maker. It just looks like a scam now because unwinding a meme stock cult frequently looks like like the end of an apocalyptic cult.
jqpabc123 2y ago
For the past six years, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve that goal by the end of the year, and he has been wrong every time. So either Musk has very poor grasp of the technical issues OR he is a con artist. In either case, he lacks credibility. There is nothing that Tesla has actually produced that justifies a stock P/E of 130 while the competition is typically under 10.

17 points by zfg 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Remember when Elmo predicted Tesla will have Full Self-Driving in 2017, then 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024? Good times.

ben_w 2y ago
Mm. I was excited back then. Back in 2009, I sincerely expected that normal people would be able to buy cars that didn't even have a place to put a steering wheel by 2019. Even with all the improvements since then… well, Tesla reports the Cybercab will start production in 2026, but given how optimistic Musk is with timelines, even if that vehicle gets past the press prototypes we've seen, even if it passes all the regulations, even if the AI is good enough, I expect no earlier than 2028: https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/11/tesla-cybercab-to-debut-in-2026/ https://www.electrive.com/2024/10/11/tesla-cybercab-to-debut... Someone else might get there first, like Waymo selling what's currently a taxi, but I'm not optimistic any more.
rvnx 2y ago
https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

taylodl 2y ago

If Tesla had focused on being an auto company rather than a shiny new object company and if Elon Musk had focused on being a business leader rather than whatever he's been doing the past few years, we'd be having a completely different discussion. As it is, Elon Musk has lost his mojo, people are finally realizing he's been lying for years, and Tesla has never had the opportunity to establish operational excellence. None of this is good for business and their sales numbers are reflecting that.

sidibe 2y ago
We'd be having a completely different discussion but Tesla would be a much less valuable company worth less than Toyota and others and Elon wouldn't be anywhere near the richest person in the world
- taylodl 2y ago
  Sounds like you're saying Tesla has been a pump and dump stock all along.
  - Zigurd 2y ago
    It's been a meme stock with a very high percentage of individual investors all along. At first that was a brilliant way to get cheap capital. Also, cults are cheaper to build than conventional brand-building. It may have been the only way to build a real high-ish volume car maker. It just looks like a scam now because unwinding a meme stock cult frequently looks like like the end of an apocalyptic cult.

jqpabc123 2y ago

For the past six years, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve that goal by the end of the year, and he has been wrong every time. So either Musk has very poor grasp of the technical issues OR he is a con artist. In either case, he lacks credibility. There is nothing that Tesla has actually produced that justifies a stock P/E of 130 while the competition is typically under 10.