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GP is talking about something else, and arguably in agreement with your view: for a technology to come about and stick, you need a perfect storm: all the pieces
by TeMPOraL 2y ago
GP is talking about something else, and arguably in agreement with your view: for a technology to come about and stick, you need a perfect storm: all the pieces being available and a source of continued demand for it. The former you need for an invention to be made; the latter you need for it to survive - to continue being made and to spread worldwide.
WRT. rocketry, this is a story of technology getting almost, but not quite there - it was all evolving at a rapid pace, until suddenly demand disappeared. It's not that demand for rockets wasn't there at all - just not at the price point which designs from the 80s/90s commanded What Elon did with SpaceX, was to focus on dropping the price. That involved revisiting the reusable boosters idea, which didn't pan out then because they didn't have to worry about money as much. It got perfected and productized by SpaceX now, because it was a road to cheaper launches - and they got them cheap enough to meet the existing demand (and create more of it).
- datadrivenangel 2y agoAlso for rocketry the established players didn't want to majorly reduce the cost because they had government monopolies. Innovators dilemma.