7 ms·

China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan

14 points by nabla9 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
biglyburrito 2y ago
https://archive.is/UjNZz https://archive.is/UjNZz
oldpersonintx 2y ago
[dead]
nabla9 2y ago
Trump as a US president changes everything. Trump honestly does not like the idea of war and has an isolationist streak. Has a long history of saying it aloud. Move to stop Chinese quarantine, or break the blockade would lead to a very expensive war if China does not back down.Stopping China would cost the global economy US$10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global GDP. Depression would last the rest of Trump's presidency. Equivalent of combined global economic crisis (2009) and Covid-19 (2020) crisis. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-invades-taiwan-it-would-cost-world-economy-10-trillion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-... Trump could just abandon Taiwan and try similar deal as with Ukraine. The US bullies Taiwan with China so chips and electronics continue to move.
- baxtr 2y ago
  Taiwan should say thank you more often!
- JohnFen 2y ago
  > Trump honestly does not like the idea of war For someone who doesn't like the idea of it, he's pretty quick to threaten allies with it and to engage in activities that increase its likelihood.
  - nabla9 2y ago
    As you already know he is a bullshitter and a bully. His threats are weak shakedown attempts. If the opponent does not immediately cave he does something else. Bully threatens those who are smaller or defenseless. All he wants is tough talk and "a deal" that looks win for him. It does not have to be real substantial victory, just something he can spin as a victory and "a deal". "a deal" - is just photo op and signing something. He is a media person and a hustler.
    - JohnFen 2y ago
      You're not wrong. However, the trouble with this line of thinking is that you can't tell when he's serious and when he's not. This is why large numbers of Americans voted for him despite being opposed to much of what he said he was going to do when elected: they thought he was bullshitting and being hyperbolic. Now they've learned better. Besides, anyone who's willing to threaten war as a negotiation tactic is literally a warmonger, not someone who is opposed to it.
    - baxtr 2y ago
      My hypothesis is that he wants to be viewed as the best negotiator in the world. That's his ultimate goal. Anything he does is motivated by improving this image of him.
suraci 2y ago
> Most military experts agree that China’s armed forces aren’t ready for an amphibious invasion across the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. > The U.S. president’s stance on Taiwan likely plays the most crucial role in Beijing’s calculation about whether to take action, said Huang Chung-ting, a Taipei-based defense analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank backed by the Taiwanese military. For me, the subtext is very obvious :)

14 points by nabla9 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

biglyburrito 2y ago

https://archive.is/UjNZz https://archive.is/UjNZz

oldpersonintx 2y ago

[dead]

nabla9 2y ago

Trump as a US president changes everything. Trump honestly does not like the idea of war and has an isolationist streak. Has a long history of saying it aloud. Move to stop Chinese quarantine, or break the blockade would lead to a very expensive war if China does not back down.Stopping China would cost the global economy US$10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global GDP. Depression would last the rest of Trump's presidency. Equivalent of combined global economic crisis (2009) and Covid-19 (2020) crisis. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-invades-taiwan-it-would-cost-world-economy-10-trillion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-09/if-china-... Trump could just abandon Taiwan and try similar deal as with Ukraine. The US bullies Taiwan with China so chips and electronics continue to move.

baxtr 2y ago
Taiwan should say thank you more often!
JohnFen 2y ago
> Trump honestly does not like the idea of war For someone who doesn't like the idea of it, he's pretty quick to threaten allies with it and to engage in activities that increase its likelihood.
- nabla9 2y ago
  As you already know he is a bullshitter and a bully. His threats are weak shakedown attempts. If the opponent does not immediately cave he does something else. Bully threatens those who are smaller or defenseless. All he wants is tough talk and "a deal" that looks win for him. It does not have to be real substantial victory, just something he can spin as a victory and "a deal". "a deal" - is just photo op and signing something. He is a media person and a hustler.
  - JohnFen 2y ago
    You're not wrong. However, the trouble with this line of thinking is that you can't tell when he's serious and when he's not. This is why large numbers of Americans voted for him despite being opposed to much of what he said he was going to do when elected: they thought he was bullshitting and being hyperbolic. Now they've learned better. Besides, anyone who's willing to threaten war as a negotiation tactic is literally a warmonger, not someone who is opposed to it.
  - baxtr 2y ago
    My hypothesis is that he wants to be viewed as the best negotiator in the world. That's his ultimate goal. Anything he does is motivated by improving this image of him.

suraci 2y ago

> Most military experts agree that China’s armed forces aren’t ready for an amphibious invasion across the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. > The U.S. president’s stance on Taiwan likely plays the most crucial role in Beijing’s calculation about whether to take action, said Huang Chung-ting, a Taipei-based defense analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank backed by the Taiwanese military. For me, the subtext is very obvious :)