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No. 1. If TSMC disappears tomorrow, the US still has Intel to make chips. It'll be very bad for chip supply for a few years, but the US and its allies have all
by aurareturn 2y ago
No.
1. If TSMC disappears tomorrow, the US still has Intel to make chips. It'll be very bad for chip supply for a few years, but the US and its allies have all the tech to recreate most, if not all, of TSMC's services in 2-3 years in an emergency situation.
2. In 2025, China aren't allowed to make chips smaller than 7nm at TSMC. Destroying TSMC slows down the US more than China. At this point, TSMC basically only serves US customers so China doesn't lose much if TSMC goes down. It's probably better for China if TSMC disappears tomorrow actually.
3. China doesn't care that much about Taiwan's chip industry in the grand scheme of things. It's a nice bonus to have TSMC intact but it's not a must for them.
Unfortunately for Taiwan, they can't use TSMC as a leverage in any conflict with China because the US has forced them to stop selling advanced chips to China. If Chinese companies and US companies heavily rely on TSMC, then Taiwan would have more leverage. But as of right now, only US companies do.
Meanwhile, China is pouring resources into making their own EUV machines. The US still has Intel and it just forced TSMC to build more fabs on US soil. So Taiwan is losing more leverage every day.
- keepamovin 2y ago2 - 3 years is a hell of a pinch to be in in an emergency! A bit like the "electrical transformers supply chain" issue. On your point 2, is that really so? Where do all Chinese bought or used AI chips come from? Can you expand on 3 - why is that so? It sounds as if you're saying the "TSMC monopoly" is a bit of a mirage/smokescreen fabricated by the US. Chinese companies and US companies heavily rely on TSMC - honestly thought this was the case. What was my view missing?
- aurareturn 2y agoYes, 2-3 years is an eternity but the chip industry can recover. Chinese buy all their chips from Qualcomm (Android phones), Nvidia (gimped GPUs), Intel, AMD. But Chinese companies can't take their own designs to TSMC and make chips smaller than 7nm. That's the problem for them. They've begun to invest heavily into their own chip fabs and EUV machines. On point 3, China wants Taiwan regardless of whether TSMC gets blown up in the process or not. Ideally, China doesn't have to fire a single missile at Taiwan. But if they have to blow up Taiwan/TSMC, they'd do it. Chip manufacturing is not as important as integrating Taiwan into China, to China.
- keepamovin 2y agoI don't know that much about it, thanks for telling me. I guess I thought TSMC was crucial in AI chips, and China was buying from them. But I see the "prohibition" against doing so may actually have the possibly "unintended" effect of making China more independent. Anyway, nice username - hahah "aura return" what's that in reference to? Cool ring to it :)
- _t9ow 2y ago> China is pouring resources into making their own EUV machines Not only this, but ASML has decided to build a factory in Beijing as well: https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/10/asml_to_open_beijing_facility/ https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/10/asml_to_open_beijing_...