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Ask HN: Geopolitically can Taiwan call the shots now because of AI chips?

2 points by keepamovin 2y ago

Not overtly as that would upset the Overton window of Taiwan's "accepted place" in world affairs - but behind the scenes could this be happening? How? Because it would seem that the island nation of Taiwan could hold the world and its handful of super powers by the cojones if it wanted to, by having a monopoly right now on the manufacture of the silicon needed to run the current and medium term revolution and global competition in AI. I don't know, but it occurred to be it might be so, so I'm asking here for what you all think? On the face of it "Taiwan is too small" to call the shots seems to send the idea packing...but the US, China and everyone else rely 100% on Taiwan supplying them with chips right now, so maybe it's not so simple. What do you think? For anyone who accepts this thesis, what would Taiwan be asking for in return for this power? How would it be taking advantage of its moment? Or would other nations be too wary of Taiwan's monopoly to engage in backroom trading, not wanting to embolden or "give it ideas" ? Seems an interesting and current dynamic, but I haven't heard the implications and second order effects discussed beyond the tired "relationship to possible war" narrative. So I think it's good to ask here to stimulate discussion and see if there's a consensus.

aurareturn 2y ago
No. 1. If TSMC disappears tomorrow, the US still has Intel to make chips. It'll be very bad for chip supply for a few years, but the US and its allies have all the tech to recreate most, if not all, of TSMC's services in 2-3 years in an emergency situation. 2. In 2025, China aren't allowed to make chips smaller than 7nm at TSMC. Destroying TSMC slows down the US more than China. At this point, TSMC basically only serves US customers so China doesn't lose much if TSMC goes down. It's probably better for China if TSMC disappears tomorrow actually. 3. China doesn't care that much about Taiwan's chip industry in the grand scheme of things. It's a nice bonus to have TSMC intact but it's not a must for them. Unfortunately for Taiwan, they can't use TSMC as a leverage in any conflict with China because the US has forced them to stop selling advanced chips to China. If Chinese companies and US companies heavily rely on TSMC, then Taiwan would have more leverage. But as of right now, only US companies do. Meanwhile, China is pouring resources into making their own EUV machines. The US still has Intel and it just forced TSMC to build more fabs on US soil. So Taiwan is losing more leverage every day.
- keepamovin 2y ago
  2 - 3 years is a hell of a pinch to be in in an emergency! A bit like the "electrical transformers supply chain" issue. On your point 2, is that really so? Where do all Chinese bought or used AI chips come from? Can you expand on 3 - why is that so? It sounds as if you're saying the "TSMC monopoly" is a bit of a mirage/smokescreen fabricated by the US. Chinese companies and US companies heavily rely on TSMC - honestly thought this was the case. What was my view missing?
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    Yes, 2-3 years is an eternity but the chip industry can recover. Chinese buy all their chips from Qualcomm (Android phones), Nvidia (gimped GPUs), Intel, AMD. But Chinese companies can't take their own designs to TSMC and make chips smaller than 7nm. That's the problem for them. They've begun to invest heavily into their own chip fabs and EUV machines. On point 3, China wants Taiwan regardless of whether TSMC gets blown up in the process or not. Ideally, China doesn't have to fire a single missile at Taiwan. But if they have to blow up Taiwan/TSMC, they'd do it. Chip manufacturing is not as important as integrating Taiwan into China, to China.
    - keepamovin 2y ago
      I don't know that much about it, thanks for telling me. I guess I thought TSMC was crucial in AI chips, and China was buying from them. But I see the "prohibition" against doing so may actually have the possibly "unintended" effect of making China more independent. Anyway, nice username - hahah "aura return" what's that in reference to? Cool ring to it :)
- _t9ow 2y ago
  > China is pouring resources into making their own EUV machines Not only this, but ASML has decided to build a factory in Beijing as well: https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/10/asml_to_open_beijing_facility/ https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/10/asml_to_open_beijing_...
suraci 2y ago
will all due respect, anyone who accepts this thesis, is very naive i've said the hard truth which unsuprisely got flagged > Taiwan is a puppet regime most of western people, especially americans, don't know what 'a puppet regime' is, they thought it is an insult, no, that's the fact you think like this because you thought the taiwan regime is an indepentent political power, who only serve its own people that's simply not true taiwan can only sacrifice benefits of taiwannese people to the US, to obtain its regime, that's why it gave TSMC to the US without any compensation, it's simply because they can not say 'no' to the US Trump and TSMC announce $100 billion plan to build five new US factories > https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-ceo-meet-with-trump-tout-investment-plans-2025-03-03 https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-ceo-meet-with-trump-... that's the reality just happened in less a month, you can not give a theis which violate the reality, it's pointless
- keepamovin 2y ago
  It's okay - I have definitely been naive and optimistic in the past with my views on some things and people, and maybe I'm doin the same thing here. There's certainly something to what you say. On the one hand you have power because you're making something in demand, but on the other hand, those demanding from you have more power in other ways. Giant catch 22, almost victim of own success kind of thing. Sometimes I think if Taiwan had not developed an in-demand economy, it would be left alone by major players to be more independent, ha! Another point of reflection regarding independence (from everyone, really, not just US) is the local politics. A reformer popular with young people who had practical (not ideological) policies, nearly became president last year, and it was covered almost not at all in the Western press, despite Taiwan's ostensible "importance" to the future. And now the guy is seemingly being punished for daring to upend the system, currently prosecuted for corruption regarding a construction project while mayor. Someone like that could have practically chosen to increase ties with China for economic reasons, but perhaps that would have angered the US or others. Conversely, maybe he would have angered the Chinese, because he was an unexpected variable -- instead of the traditional predictable polarities of two parties. I concur with your point about sacrificing interests of Taiwanese people - it seems that the middle class there is much exploited, with expensive housing, ineffective policies and some wage stagnation, while a few at the top get rich, and two parties keep playing the same song. What's to be done? I like to entertain these optimistic theses... it could be naive but I fee like: the Taiwanese got themselves to this position of some power, maybe they are figuring out how to use it, and I wonder how.

suraci 2y ago
Are you a taiwanese? not many people here know about Ko Wen-je I don't think the reality allow taiwan to be the player but not the pawn on the table the best taiwan can do is trade itself for as many benefits as possible > Sometimes I think if Taiwan had not developed an in-demand economy, it would be left alone by major players to be more independent what does the US want from taiwan? the semiconductor industry and a frontline battlefield to contain China what does China want from Taiwan? unification, that's the highest priority for CPC, not the economy > the Taiwanese got themselves to this position of some power, maybe they are figuring out how to use it, and I wonder how. the semiconductor industry of taiwan, you think it's the power, but it's not, it's the treasure of taiwanese people, and between China and the US, only one does not intend to rob it from them for taiwanese people, the wisest choice is to trade with China by itself to preserve the treasure taiwan only has leverage when it faces china trading with china, taiwan itself is the leverage, taiwan gains peace and local industry, and it lost independence, liberty and democracy - but how can it lost something it doesn't have currently, taiwan is on its worst path, trading with the US, gave its most valuable treasure away for nothing just think what the deal between taiwan and the US could be? - Hey, can you please don't rob my industry? - what will you give to me? here, taiwan's only option is to fight against china for the US but, of course, if you values 'democracy and liberty' as the treasure, things will be very different
- keepamovin 2y ago
  Tho I get how it must feel like that sometimes to TWese people, to me this sounds too much of "Hide your strength, bide your time" deception, too much convincing about the supposed weakness of Taiwan, at a time when it clearly has strengths. If TWese had an advantage from this they wouldn't want to show it, probably. I'm asking as I'm curious to know what they might be using it for and if it's real. Not saying there's no truth to your telling of it as Taiwan as the 'victim of the world', and exploited from all sides, but that also sounds too extreme. The blame pointing also verges into "don't suspect us, we are a victim, we can do no wrong" zero-responsibility thinking that if not carefully handled can serve to simply mask wrongs done there, such as the Ko debacle for instance. On the whole I think your practical grounding in what's in TW's interests is probably correct and aligned with how many practical people think there. Funny second order effect of the US "request" for TSMC treasure stateside, is how this short-term win for the US will likely only push the TWese toward CN more so. Tho perhaps this is still aligned with US calculation of TW as a pawn, whose loyalty or not was never really valued, nor even expected long term, history being what it is. I agree TW is playing in a game that's not so much about it, but about the other, "bigger" players - but I'm just genuinely wondering how is TW planning to use this to its advantage, at a time when the world is trying to beat a path to its door, and it is clearly positioned at the nexus of great power competition along multiple axes: AI, politics and strategic land. The question is sincere, tho I get it's not strategic for any revelations. They are clearly interested in power despite their humble appearance, else they never would have created such in-demand economies and played the dual game as they have. I hope to see some thinking about Taiwanese reckonings on this, beyond the somewhat simplistic "TW is universal victim" muddy thinking. I appreciate how you brought my attention to that side of it, as well as the practical implications of the negative sides of TSM corp's success, thank you! Important question: "TW got the game to this point, what's their play now and why?" I am not TWese but I am curious about the happenings there. I think it's important what happens in Taiwan's story - not just because it's a bit of a barometer of and prism for the China-US relationship, but also for its own journey! :)