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> would be akin to how most humans see a ball in flight and just instinctively know (within reason) where the ball is going to go? Up to a point .. and that p

> would be akin to how most humans see a ball in flight and just instinctively know (within reason) where the ball is going to go? Up to a point .. and that point is more or less the same as the point where humans can no longer catch a spinning tennis raquet. We understand the gravitional rainbow arc of the centre of mass, we fail at predicting the low order chaotic spin of tennis raquet mass distributions. Other butterflies are more unpredictable, and the ones that land on a camels back breaking a dam of precariously balanced rocks are a particular problem. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_racket_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_racket_theorem * Dzhanibekov effect demonstration in microgravity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x5UiwEEvpQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x5UiwEEvpQ * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_map https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_map

MostlyStable 2y ago
Yes, humans are obviously limited in the things we can instinctively, intuitively predict. That's not really the point. The point is whether something that has been trained to do more complicated predictions will have the a similar feeling when doing those predictions (of being intuitive and natural), or if it will feel more explicit, like when a human is doing the calculus necessary to predict where the same ball is going to go.
- defrost 2y ago
  Humans have both intuition and explicit calculation, predictive calculation can be stable or inherently unstable. The point is whether a LLM has any feelings ...
  - MostlyStable 2y ago
    My phrase "future, hypothetical" was trying very specifically to avoid any discussions about whether current AI have qualia or internal experiences. I was trying to think about whether something which did have some kind of coherent internal experience (assumed for the sake of the idle thought), but which had far greater predictive abilities than humans, would have the same intuitive feeling when making those much more complicated predictions. It was an idle thought that was only barely tangentially related to the article in question, and was not meant to be a comment at all on the model in the article or on any current (or even very near future) AI model. I don't expect anyone would have an answer, given the extreme degree of hypothetical-ness.
  - criddell 2y ago
    When you say "The point is whether a LLM has any feelings..." are you thinking specifically about an LLM, or AI in general? I've seen nothing to indicate that Project Aardvark is using an LLM for weather prediction.

MostlyStable 2y ago

Yes, humans are obviously limited in the things we can instinctively, intuitively predict. That's not really the point. The point is whether something that has been trained to do more complicated predictions will have the a similar feeling when doing those predictions (of being intuitive and natural), or if it will feel more explicit, like when a human is doing the calculus necessary to predict where the same ball is going to go.

defrost 2y ago
Humans have both intuition and explicit calculation, predictive calculation can be stable or inherently unstable. The point is whether a LLM has any feelings ...
- MostlyStable 2y ago
  My phrase "future, hypothetical" was trying very specifically to avoid any discussions about whether current AI have qualia or internal experiences. I was trying to think about whether something which did have some kind of coherent internal experience (assumed for the sake of the idle thought), but which had far greater predictive abilities than humans, would have the same intuitive feeling when making those much more complicated predictions. It was an idle thought that was only barely tangentially related to the article in question, and was not meant to be a comment at all on the model in the article or on any current (or even very near future) AI model. I don't expect anyone would have an answer, given the extreme degree of hypothetical-ness.
- criddell 2y ago
  When you say "The point is whether a LLM has any feelings..." are you thinking specifically about an LLM, or AI in general? I've seen nothing to indicate that Project Aardvark is using an LLM for weather prediction.